Atletico Morelia vs Leones Neg. Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 11 November 2026
📢 Atlético Morelia and Leones Negros begin their battle for a place in the Liga de Expansión MX final. Both teams had successful regular seasons, finishing third and second respectively. They head into this semi-final in good form, with consistent results and prolific attacks. Atlético Morelia deserve particular mention: their recent matches have regularly featured plenty of goals. Leones Negros also have a strong attack, however, and are clearly aiming for a positive result ahead of the second leg.
Head-to-Head
Atlético Morelia beat Leones Negros 2-0 in a Liga de Expansión MX match on 20 September 2026. The visitors had more possession (60%), but the home side took more shots from inside the penalty area: 8 to 4.
In 38 head-to-head meetings, Leones Negros have won more often: 18 victories to Atlético Morelia’s 14, while 6 matches have ended in a draw. At Atlético Morelia’s ground, however, the teams have 9 wins each.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico Morelia - Leones Neg.
Both teams have scored in nine home matches
In their last Liga Expansión MX match on 8 November 2026, Atlético Morelia beat Venados 2-1 at home. With 44% possession, the home side had 23 shots to Venados’ 10, including 16 from inside the penalty area.
Atlético Morelia go into the first leg of the semi-finals in fairly good form. They have three wins and two defeats from their last five matches; over their last ten, they have five wins, two draws and three defeats. They score an average of 1.73 goals and concede 1.27 per match, making for fairly high-scoring games. Each of Atlético Morelia’s last five matches has had over 2.5 goals. In addition, they have scored and conceded at least once in each of their previous nine home matches, indicating a tendency towards open games with goals for both sides.
Match Results: Zacatepec
The attack scores more than two goals per match
Leones Negros’ 2-1 win over Alacranes de Durango in their last home Liga de Expansión MX match on 8 November 2026 came despite the visitors having more possession - 65% to 35%. Leones Negros scored both goals before half-time and edged their opponents 4-3 in shots on target.
Leones Negros have also produced decent results, with three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. Over ten matches, their record is identical to their opponents’: five wins, two draws and three defeats. The visitors have been even more prolific, averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. These figures point to strong attacking potential, although their defence regularly makes mistakes.
Match Results: Leones Negros
Match Result Prediction
The Leones Negros (+1.5) handicap has won in 17 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings. This season, Leones Negros have won 6 of their 8 away matches and lost just one. Atlético Morelia have won 4 of their 7 home matches, but would need to win by at least two goals for this bet to lose. We pick Leones Negros - Handicap +1.5 at odds of 1.36*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Atlético Morelia have scored and conceded in nine consecutive matches. This season, they average 2.43 goals at home, while Leones Negros average 2 goals away; Atlético Morelia have also scored in 16 consecutive matches. The caveat is that Leones Negros have averaged just one goal in their last ten away matches, so their ability to score remains the least certain aspect of the prediction. We pick Both Teams to Score - Yes at odds of 1.57*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:0 (10.84%), 1:1 (10.74%) and 2:1 (8.54%). Our predicted score is 2:1.
⭐ Editor’s Pick
Atlético Morelia are considered the favourites for this match, but Leones Negros are unlikely to accept their opponents’ status without a fight. The visitors have also had a convincing season and have enough attacking potential to put up serious resistance. That makes the number of goals a more interesting option. At least three goals have been scored in each of Atlético Morelia’s last five matches. Leones Negros also score regularly, although they are not always solid in defence. The main prediction is therefore: Total Goals - Over 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Zacatepec - Leones Negros
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