Lithuania vs Suriname Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 November 2026
🔉 Lithuania are turning a new page: Mindaugas Čepas makes his debut in Kaunas. For the Lithuanians, this is a dress rehearsal ahead of their decisive Nations League match against Liechtenstein; for Suriname, it is a chance to prove their quality after a setback in the CONCACAF Nations League, where they missed out on the play-offs because of a stoppage-time goal.
Head-to-Head
📊 The teams are meeting for the first time.
Home slump and a depleted squad
Lithuania’s home run looks dismal. In ten competitive matches, they have recorded just one win, and that came on penalties against Latvia in the Baltic Cup semi-final. The national team have scored an average of 0.9 goals per game and conceded 1.6 over that stretch. It is one of the weakest home runs in the national team’s history. However, in friendlies in September 2026, they thrashed Andorra 3-0 at home and beat Liechtenstein 2-0 away, so they do have some potential.
On the pitch, Lithuania remain a team that rely heavily on their midfield. The key figure is Torino’s Gvidas Gineitis. Armandas Kučys is available in attack: he will miss the match against Liechtenstein through suspension but has been named in the squad for the friendly. Without Utkus and Gertmonas, the defence looks vulnerable, especially against Suriname’s quick attacks.
Match Results: Lithuania
Consistent scoring and a strong squad
Suriname have failed to score in their last two matches, but before that they had scored in eight consecutive games. Their away form is far from ideal - just two wins in their last nine competitive away matches - but their goalscoring has remained consistent: an average of 1.33 goals scored over that run. At least three goals were scored in 6 of those 9 matches.
The expected formation is 3-4-3, with Rihonell Margaret and Tjaronn Chery providing the attacking threat. Margaret has already scored for the national team - in November 2025, he scored twice against El Salvador in World Cup qualifying. Justin Lonwijk and Ridgeciano Haps, who are in good form, are also in the squad. This is a well-drilled team that score regularly and cause problems even for more organised opponents.
Match Results: Suriname
Latest news
Lithuania
Goalkeeper Edvinas Gertmonas and defender Edgaras Utkus are both sidelined and will definitely not play.
Suriname
The coaching staff can count on all their key players.
Match Result Prediction
Lithuania have won one of their five home matches this season and drawn two more. Suriname have won two of their six away matches and score an average of 1.33 goals away from home, compared with the 1.6 goals Lithuania concede at home. However, Suriname have lost three of their six away matches - a notable argument against the prediction. Given this risk, we are opting not for an outright win but for Suriname to Win or Draw at odds of 1.50*.
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed in 10 of Lithuania’s last 11 matches, so a moderate line is preferable for the goals prediction. Lithuania average 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded at home; Suriname average 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded away. These averages provide grounds to expect at least two goals, although they do not, on their own, show how often the selected line has been covered. We’re backing Total Goals - Over 1.5 at odds of 1.43*.
High-Risk Bet
In their recent home matches, Lithuania have scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 1.6. In their recent away matches, Suriname have scored 1.33 and conceded 1.67 goals on average. This makes three goals worth considering as a bolder prediction for the match’s goal tally. However, 10 of Lithuania’s last 11 matches have had fewer than 3.5 goals, and the frequency with which the 2.5 line has been exceeded is not specified; the bet on Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 2.34* remains risky.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm’s calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:1 (13.58%), 1:0 (9.02%) and 0:1 (8.54%). Of these, 1:1 has the highest probability. The probabilities of 1:0 and 0:1 are close to each other.
*The odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.*
⭐ Editor’s Pick
Lithuania have gone ten consecutive home matches without winning in normal time and are missing five regular starters, including key defender Utkus. Suriname score regularly away from home, and their attack looks more consistent. Even allowing for the impact of Lithuania’s new coach and the match’s friendly status, the visitors have more quality. Lithuania have conceded in ten consecutive games, while Suriname have consistently scored. The main pick is Suriname to win. Predicted score: 1:2.
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Betting Tips: Lithuania - Suriname
in 10 of last 11 Lithuania games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 7 Lithuania home games (Int. Friendly Games).Comparison of Teams Stats
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