Vasco Da Gama vs Olimpia Prediction 13 August 2026
🔊 Vasco da Gama and Olimpia will meet again in the Copa Sudamericana, this time with a quarterfinal spot at stake. The teams know each other well: in the group stage they each won their home match. The first leg looks like a good opportunity for Vasco to use their home advantage and get revenge for the defeat in Asunción back in May.
Head-to-Head
📊 In the first-leg match, Vasco played one of their best games of the group stage and won 3:0. José Luis Rodríguez opened the scoring in the first half, and after the break Nuno Moreira and Adson extended the lead to make it a comfortable victory. The Brazilians had 16 shots to their opponents' 14 and won possession - 52% to 48%.
🔗 Three weeks later, the script changed completely. Olimpia were losing at home after the first half, but in the second period they scored three times and won 3:1. Mateo Gamarra, Hugo Sandoval and Sebastián Ferreira turned the game around after Carlos Cuesta's goal. So the head-to-head matches offer an important conclusion: home advantage matters enormously in this tie. Neither side has managed to take points away from home yet.
Head-to-head statistics Vasco Da Gama - Olimpia
Vasco da Gama Team Overview
Vasco had a longer road to the last 16. The team finished second in Group G with three wins, one draw and two defeats. The Brazilians then met Independiente Medellín in the play-off round. They drew 2:2 in Colombia and won at home (1:0) thanks to a late goal from Thiago Mendes.
Throughout the group stage, though, Vasco showed a fairly inconsistent profile. They started with a goalless draw against Barracas Central, but gradually found their rhythm. Their eight Sudamericana matches brought Vasco 13 goals scored.
The Nuno Moreira factor is particularly important. The Portuguese has been the main creative force for the team in the international tournament: he scored against Olimpia in the April match and provided two assists across eight games. He has spent more time on the pitch than any other Vasco player in the current campaign. Another player capable of deciding a tight match is Claudio Spinelli. The Argentine forward has already scored in the play-offs: it was his late goal in the first leg against Medellín that allowed Vasco to avoid defeat.
Domestically, the team is gradually building momentum under Pedro Emanuel. On 5 August, Vasco knocked Fluminense out of the Copa do Brasil at Maracanã (3:1). Four days later, the team drew 0:0 with Bahia away in Série A. The manager even singled out the quality of the performance and the point gained after the match. This is an important contrast with the early days of the Portuguese coach's tenure. In May, Vasco looked unstable and regularly made individual defensive errors, but by August the team had become much more reliable - six matches in a row without defeat (2 wins, 4 draws).
Match Results: Vasco da Gama
Olimpia Asuncion Team Overview
Olimpia reached the playoff stage by a more straightforward route. The team won Group G with four wins and just one defeat. That sole loss came away in Rio.
In attack, Olimpia have several players capable of changing the course of a match. We would single out Romeo Benítez in particular: the Paraguayan midfielder has contributed three assists.
Right now, though, the team are not approaching the trip to Rio in ideal shape. After the group stage of the Sudamericana ended, Olimpia kicked off their campaign in the Paraguayan Clausura, picking up just three points from the first four rounds. It is also telling that Olimpia failed to score in each of their three defeats. Before heading to Brazil, the Paraguayans will need to switch quickly from domestic league football to a completely different level of intensity.
Vasco also have a packed schedule after a run of matches against Fluminense and Bahia, but emotionally the Brazilians look more confident right now. Olimpia's main task in the first leg is to avoid repeating the April scenario. If they concede first again, the Brazilians will have the chance to play to their strengths - Moreira's pace, vertical passes and quick attacks.
Match Results: Olimpia Asuncion
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The match has been assigned to Argentine referee Dario Herrera. He is a fairly active official: in the 2026 season his average sits at around 5.4 bookings per game. The matchup itself also lends itself to physical play. This is no longer a group stage match where teams can afford to make mistakes. Olimpia are well aware that the second leg will be played in Asunción, so it is important for them not to fall too far behind in Rio. Vasco, on the other hand, will attack aggressively and force the visitors to do a lot of work without the ball. In both group stage matches, the total of over 3.5 yellow cards was exceeded. Given the referee's style and the status of the match, the same bet looks perfectly logical.
⚽ Goals Prediction
It is hard to ignore the head-to-head record. Across two group stage meetings the teams scored seven goals, and both matches finished with a total of over 2.5. But I am not expecting such open football this time. The reason is the playoff format. Vasco do not need to win by a big margin - the main thing is not to concede. For the Brazilians, a two-goal advantage is enough to head to Asunción with a comfortable cushion. Olimpia, meanwhile, know full well that they have already beaten this opponent at home and will be able to count on their own fans' support in the second leg. So the most likely range is two to three goals. Prediction: total under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.32*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Here I expect a noticeable territorial advantage for Vasco. At home the Brazilians have already beaten Olimpia, and the nature of that match showed that the hosts are capable of keeping the opposition pinned back on their own half for long periods. Nuno Moreira and Adson make active use of the flanks, and in positional attacks Vasco regularly work the ball into wide areas. If Olimpia drop into a mid-block, the number of crosses and cutbacks should increase.
An additional factor is the scenario following the first goal. If Vasco take the lead, Olimpia will gradually have to open up, which will give the hosts space for further attacks. And if the score stays level for a long time, the Brazilians' pressure should still translate into set pieces. So here I would prefer the hosts' individual total rather than the overall total. Prediction: Vasco da Gama individual corners total over 5.5 at 1.64*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This looks like one of the most evenly matched ties in the last 16, despite the fact that Vasco have already shown they can beat Olimpia convincingly. In April the Brazilians won at San Januário, but three weeks later the Paraguayans completely changed the script. So the home factor here really does matter enormously.
Right now the advantage is with Vasco again. The team are playing at home and have gone six matches without a defeat. Under Pedro Emanuel a more reliable structure is gradually taking shape, and the mistakes that plagued the team in the manager's early matches have become less noticeable. Olimpia should not be underestimated. They won the group, they have already beaten Vasco, and they have the second leg to play in Asunción. The Paraguayans will need to play a near-perfect defensive match if they want to keep the tie completely level.
So I expect the Brazilians to have the edge, but not a rout. Olimpia are organised enough to stop the hosts from repeating the April thrashing. My pick is a Vasco da Gama win. Predicted score - 2:1.
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Betting Tips: Vasco da Gama - Olimpia Asuncion
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