Dortmund vs Paderborn Prediction 12 September 2026
🔊 Borussia Dortmund host Paderborn in the 3rd round of the Bundesliga. The hosts have won both of their opening league matches and sit among the leaders on six points, while Paderborn have managed only one point so far and are yet to score. There is also an important additional burden on Dortmund going into this match: on Tuesday they played their first league phase game in the Champions League, beating Villarreal 3-2 at home. It was not a straightforward evening - Dortmund scored twice only in the closing stages, and then conceded in stoppage time. With only a few days to prepare for Paderborn, the question of physical condition and rotation is particularly significant here.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two clubs last met in February 2021 in the Round of 16 of the DFB-Pokal. On that occasion in Dortmund, Borussia needed 120 minutes to beat Paderborn 3-2.
Head-to-head statistics Dortmund - Paderborn
Borussia Dortmund Team Overview
Dortmund have started the season with two wins and five goals scored. In the opening round, Niko Kovač's side beat Hamburg 2-0, then came from 2-0 down to beat Hoffenheim 3-2. That leaves Borussia with six points and a goal difference of +3.
The match in Sinsheim was particularly interesting. Dortmund were unconvincing for the first 60 minutes, allowing Hoffenheim to score twice. Kovač himself said afterwards that his team had made life difficult for themselves with their passive play. After going 2-0 down, though, Borussia turned up the pressure sharply and completely turned the match around within 25 minutes. Serhou Guirassy scored the first goal, then assisted Fábio Silva, and the winner came via an own goal from Albian Hajari. By xG, Dortmund also had the better of it: 1.86 to Hoffenheim's 1.33.
Guirassy has already become one of the key factors behind the strong start. The striker scored in both Bundesliga rounds, and on Tuesday it was his brace late on that gave Dortmund victory over Villarreal. In the Champions League, Borussia struggled for much of the match to break down a deep defence in positional play, but after Kovač's substitutions they improved sharply. Fábio Silva created Guirassy's first goal, then won a dangerous chance himself, before the Frenchman converted a penalty.
That match against Villarreal needs to be factored in when assessing Dortmund's prospects on Saturday. The team played a full 90 minutes on Tuesday, with a starting XI that included Guirassy, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha, Maximilian Beier and other first-choice players. On top of that, Konstantinos Karetsas had to be substituted in the first half due to a circulation issue and is currently listed as doubtful.
Match Results: Borussia Dortmund
Paderborn 07 Team Overview
Paderborn have picked up just one point from their opening two matches and sit 12th. Ralf Kettemann's side began the season with a goalless draw against Mainz, then lost at home to Freiburg. In both games they maintained a reasonably organised structure and have conceded only one goal so far.
The main problem for the newly promoted side is their attack. Paderborn have failed to score in 180 minutes of football and managed 24 shots on or off target across the two rounds, but have not been able to convert their chances into goals.
So it would be wrong to say Paderborn are entirely passive. The team look to build out from the back through short passes, use the flanks and press fairly actively without the ball. After the first two rounds they have already recorded 182 successful tackles and 249 sprints - figures that reflect a high level of intensity. On average they have held possession for around 54% of the time, so this is not a side that simply drops into their own box and surrenders the ball.
In Dortmund, Paderborn will almost certainly spend a large portion of the match without the ball. It is therefore critical for the visitors to get through the opening spell without conceding early. If Borussia score in the first 30 minutes, Paderborn will be forced to open up, which will create more space for Guirassy, Fábio Silva and Nwaneri.
Match Results: Paderborn 07
Latest news
Borussia Dortmund
❌ Karetsas is not the only player in the treatment room. Emre Can and Ioannis Konstantelias are both continuing their recovery from cruciate ligament ruptures, Filippo Mané has picked up a muscular injury, and Nico Schlotterbeck is still in the process of recovering. Samuele Inácio is also suspended and will miss the match against Paderborn.
🔗 Dortmund do, however, have a significant advantage in squad depth. Even after a demanding match against Villarreal, Kovač can freshen up several positions without a critical drop in quality. Fatigue is therefore more likely to affect their intensity and tempo than to leave Borussia vulnerable against Paderborn.
Paderborn 07
❌ The visitors' squad situation is far from ideal either. Nyamekye Awortwi-Grant, Lasse Eickel, Timur Gayret and Sven Michel are all absent from the preliminary squad list for the match, while Sebastian Klaas is doubtful. The loss of Michel is particularly significant, as Paderborn are already struggling for effectiveness in front of goal.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Through the first two matchdays, Dortmund have picked up four yellow cards and Paderborn five. Stylistically, the two sides could produce different dynamics when it comes to bookings: the hosts will look to dominate possession and attack in a structured way, while the visitors are likely to stop Borussia's advances with fouls more frequently.
An additional factor is Dortmund's fatigue. If the hosts cannot maintain their usual pressing intensity after their Champions League match, Paderborn will have more opportunities for quick transitions. In those situations, the likelihood of tactical fouls from Borussia increases. The pick: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Dortmund have scored five goals in their first two matchdays, but both matches were far from straightforward. They conceded first against Hoffenheim and only then kicked into gear. Paderborn, by contrast, have yet to score and have conceded just one goal.
After the 3-2 win over Villarreal, Dortmund have only a few days to recover. For that reason, I wouldn't bank on another high-scoring rout. Kovač may well rotate his squad, and once the first or second goal goes in, the team could manage the game more conservatively.
That said, the gap in quality is still too large to rule out several goals entirely. Paderborn will struggle to hold up under pressure for the full ninety minutes, especially if Dortmund score first. The bet: Borussia Dortmund Team Total - Under 3.5 Goals, priced at 1.40*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Dortmund have already shown a tendency to attack heavily down the flanks. In their first two matchdays they earned a large number of set pieces in the opposition half, and in the match against Hoffenheim it was their sustained pressure in the second half that helped turn the game around.
Paderborn, for their part, will almost certainly spend most of the match in a mid or low block. If the visitors close off the central areas, Dortmund will look to the flanks more often and deliver more crosses, which increases the likelihood of corners. Even with possible rotation, the hosts' general structure should remain the same.
The match scenario is also worth considering: the longer Paderborn keep it at 0-0 or stay within a narrow deficit, the more territorial pressure Dortmund will have to apply. The pick is Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.52*.
*Odds are indicative and subject to change.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Dortmund are the clear favourites here, and understandably so. They have won both of their opening Bundesliga matches, scored five goals, and have a considerably stronger squad. Paderborn are yet to score this season and face one of the toughest away trips they will have all year.
But the Champions League factor cannot be ignored. On Tuesday, Dortmund had a hard 90 minutes against Villarreal, only winning thanks to a late burst of activity, and now must play in the Bundesliga just a few days later. Kovač will almost certainly rotate his squad, and Borussia may approach the game more pragmatically, especially if they take an early lead.
For that reason, I would not back Dortmund with a -2 handicap or expect four or five goals as a matter of course. The most likely scenario seems to be the hosts taking all three points without turning the match into another goal fest. My prediction is Total Goals - Under 4. Predicted score: 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn 07
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