Belgium vs France Prediction 28 September 2026
🔉 This will be Zinedine Zidane's second match in charge of France - and his first against opposition of comparable quality. His debut against Turkey was a workmanlike affair: a narrow away win, with Mbappé scoring the only goal before picking up an injury. Now Belgium await in Brussels, having opened their Nations League campaign with a convincing 2-0 win over Italy to go top of the group. Both sides have three points, but Belgium lead on goal difference. The match at the King Baudouin Stadium is the first genuinely serious test of Zidane's tenure in a competitive setting.
🔁 Keep an eye on updates to this preview: if any significant news emerges, we will adjust our recommendations. Check back closer to kick-off.
Head-to-Head
📊 France have historically dominated this fixture, winning seven of 11 meetings against Belgium's two. The average total is 3.09 goals per game, and Total Goals - Over 2.5 has landed in 64% of those matches. The last four head-to-head meetings have all gone France's way. Belgium's last win over France was a friendly in 2015, which they won 4-3.
Head-to-head statistics Belgium - France
Belgium: Van Bommel off to a strong start
At the 2026 World Cup, Belgium reached the quarter-finals, where they were beaten by eventual winners Spain (1-2). Their run to that stage had been convincing: they went through the group phase unbeaten, then knocked out Senegal (3-2) and the USA (4-1) in the knockout rounds. Belgium scored in every match of the tournament except a goalless draw with Iran, though the defence was unreliable - they conceded in almost every game.
Their Nations League campaign began impressively, with Belgium winning 2-0 in Rome against Italy. The goals came from Mika Godts and Dodi Lukebakio, with goalkeeper Senne Lammens making six saves and keeping a clean sheet. It was Belgium's first victory over Italy in an official match since 1972. Van Bommel set the team up in a way that allowed them to control the game against a top opponent away from home, even without several key players.
Match Results: Belgium
France: Zidane Faces His First Test
At the 2026 World Cup, France reached the semi-finals, where they lost to Spain (0-2), and then lost to England in the third-place match (4-6). Before those games the tournament had gone well: seven consecutive wins, including heavy victories over Iraq (3-0) and Norway (4-1). France scored at least two goals in 6 of their 8 matches, though both defeats came at the decisive stages.
Their debut in the Nations League under Zidane came away in Turkey: a narrow 1-0 win, with Mbappé's goal on 54 minutes - assisted by Olise - the only one of the game. It was not a particularly bright performance; their first shot on target did not come until the 43rd minute. Zidane reorganised the shape from 4-2-3-1: Mbappé returned to the left flank, Dembélé took up the false nine position, Koné and Rabiot formed the central midfield pair, with Ryan Cherki ahead of them.
Match Results: France
Latest news
Belgium
Mark van Bommel took charge of the national side on 24 July 2026, replacing Rudi Garcia. His contract runs until Euro 2028, and a squad overhaul began immediately: 11 players from the 2026 World Cup squad have not been called up since.
The personnel situation is difficult. Amadou Onana ruptured his cruciate ligaments at the 2026 World Cup and faces seven to eight months out. Leandro Trossard has a heel injury, while Jérémy Doku and Hans Vanaken are also unavailable. Thibaut Courtois has stepped back from international football. Nevertheless, the match against Italy showed that Belgium are capable of controlling a game even without several of their key players.
🔁 Update - 28 September, 9:30 UTC:
- Mark van Bommel confirmed at his pre-match press conference that second-choice goalkeeper Mike Penders has not recovered from a quadriceps injury in time. The Chelsea goalkeeper will miss the match, and Senne Lammens - who made six saves against Italy - will again be the number one. Penders' injury significantly limits Belgium's rotation options in this cycle, with Maarten Vandevoordt and Jari De Busser yet to earn a single senior cap.
France
The main blow is the injury to Mbappé. After scoring against Turkey, he clutched his left knee. A tendon injury has been diagnosed - the same knee that had been troubling him in December 2025. Mbappé left the squad and returned to Madrid to recover. Zidane has said he will not take any risks. Dembélé will take the captain's armband.
Désiré Doué or Bradley Barcola could replace Mbappé in attack. France have also lost Hugo Ekitiké, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Theo Hernández - all injured. Zidane has called up five new players, but the core remains: Maignan, Koundé, Upamecano, Dembélé, Olise.
🔁 Update - 28 September, 4:33 UTC:
- Zinedine Zidane has indicated that he plans to make significant rotation in the upcoming match. According to the France head coach, he has 8-9 players ready to take the field: "My plan for these four matches was precisely to give everyone game time." According to L'Équipe, left-back Andy Diouf and defensive midfielder Luca Da Cunha could make their international debuts.
🔁 Update - 28 September, 12:31 UTC:
- According to Eurosport, Ousmane Dembélé will start the match against Belgium on the bench. Zidane will play Doué as the central striker, with Barcola and Olise on the flanks. If Dembélé is not in the starting XI, that significantly reduces his chances of contributing directly, so be cautious when considering bets on his individual statistics.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Belgium: Lammens - Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper - Raskin - Moreira, De Bruyne, Tielemans, Godts, De Ketelaere.
📋 Predicted starting XI for France: Maignan - Truffert, Upamecano, Koundé, Lacroix - Koné, Cherki, Rabiot - Dembélé, Doué, Olise.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
At least four yellow cards have been shown in each of the last three meetings between these sides. A similar pattern was seen in Belgium's two previous matches as well. The intensity of the rivalry, the importance of the fixture and the tight battle in midfield all contribute to a higher number of fouls. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.82*.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Belgium have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches - their attack remains strong even accounting for personnel losses. Van Bommel has set the team up in a way that even without several key players, the Belgians create chances and convert them. At home, in front of their own supporters and on the back of a confident win over Italy, Belgium to Score at 1.36* looks interesting.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Belgium consistently generate pressure down the flanks: in 21 of their last 23 matches the team won at least four corners, and in 14 consecutive home matches at least five. Their current form and Van Bommel's style of play suggest active overlapping from the full-backs and plenty of crosses into the box. The pick here is Belgium Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at 1.67*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Ousmane Dembélé will wear the captain's armband in this match. With Mbappé out, Dembélé takes on the role of attacking leader. In the last head-to-head meeting with Belgium, it was Dembélé who scored one of the goals in a 2-0 Nations League win in 2024/25, and at the 2026 World Cup he hit a hat-trick against Norway. Without Mbappé, the main attacking burden falls on him, and Zidane will build the team's play around him. Bet: Dembélé to Score at 3.25*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
France have scored in 17 of their last 18 matches and in 14 of their last 15 away matches. Zidane has restructured the attack, but the goalscoring has remained: even in a flat match against Turkey, France found their goal. Belgium have conceded in 10 of their last 11 head-to-head meetings with France. For a reliable bet, France to Score at 1.11* is the option.
😱 Risky Bet
France have scored in the second half in 6 of their last 7 away Nations League matches and have won the second half in 8 of their last 9 matches. In Zidane's debut match against Turkey, the only goal came in the second half. If Belgium open up in pursuit of a result, France could score twice after the break. Option: France - Handicap (-1) in the Second Half at 3.60*.
👀 If the Match Goes Off Script
Belgium under Van Bommel play aggressively and do not sit back - the win over Italy in Rome confirmed that. But if the hosts seize the initiative and score first, France without Mbappé may not have the tools to respond. In that case, there may be no exchange of goals and the match could turn out to be more closed than expected. An alternative to the main prediction is Both Teams to Score - No at 2.54*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
This match looks set to be a high-scoring one: France have scored in 17 of their last 18 games, while Belgium have scored in 9 of their previous 10. On top of that, Total Goals - Over 2.5 has landed in 64% of their head-to-head meetings, with an average of more than three goals per game. Even without Mbappé, France have plenty of options going forward, and Belgium under van Bommel don't sit back - so there should be enough goals. The main bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5. Predicted score: 1-2.
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Betting Tips: Belgium - France
in 8 of last 9 games.in 6 of last 7 away games (UEFA Nations League).
in last 6 games against France.in 15 of last 16 games.in last 7 games against France.in last 5 away games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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