Vasco Da Gama vs Fluminense Prediction
🔊 The second semifinal matchup features the Rio de Janeiro derby, where Vasco da Gama and Fluminense will face off. The first leg will take place at São Januário, where less than two months ago, Fernando Diniz's team defeated Luis Zubeldia's side in a league match. The return leg is scheduled for three days later at the Maracanã, Fluminense's home ground, so Vasco must secure a comfortable lead ahead of the second leg. But can they achieve this, given that the team's form leading up to the semifinal has been less than impressive?
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 20 October 2025 and ended with a 2-0 scoreline. Here's a comparative breakdown of the statistics from that encounter (Vasco da Gama were the home side):
- possession: 47% vs 53%;
- corners: 1 vs 4;
- fouls: 10 vs 17;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 5 vs 4.
📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Vasco da Gama and Fluminense:
- 54 matches played;
- home wins - 22, away wins - 14, draws - 18;
- goals scored - 67 against 62;
- average total in the 1st half - 0.85, in the 2nd half - 1.54;
- average total goals per match - 2.39.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Vasco da Gama Team Overview
The team's last official match took place on , during the 38th round of Serie A (home side - Atlético Mineiro, visitors - Vasco da Gama). The match concluded with a scoreline of 5-0.
Here are the match statistics (Vasco da Gama vs Atlético Mineiro):
- possession: 41% vs 59%;
- corners: 1 vs 7;
- fouls: 4 vs 13;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 0 vs 6.
⚫ Vasco have reached the semifinals after defeating União Rondonópolis, Nova Iguaçu, Operário, CSA, and Botafogo. The team last lifted the Copa do Brasil trophy in 2011. Heading into the upcoming matches, Diniz's squad are in dire form, managing just one win and suffering seven losses in their last eight games, with an aggregate score of 6:19. Their latest defeat was a 0-5 thrashing by Atlético Mineiro in Belo Horizonte. Adding to their woes, Vasco failed to score in six of those eight encounters. These performances have seen them drop out of the Copa Sudamericana spots, finishing 14th. How they will fare against Fluminense, who are currently in good form and on an unbeaten streak, remains uncertain, despite Vasco's 2-0 victory over them on October 21st in the league.
Match Results: Vasco da Gama
Fluminense Team Overview
The last official match for the current visitors took place on during the 38th round of Serie A, where Fluminense hosted Bahia. The match concluded with a 2-0 victory for the home side.
Here are the match statistics (Fluminense vs Bahia):
- possession: 53% vs 47%;
- corner kicks: 5 vs 4;
- fouls: 12 vs 22;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 5 vs 5.
🔴 To reach the semifinals, Fluminense had to overcome Águia de Marabá, Caxias, Aparecidense, Internacional, and Bahia. The "Tricolors from Rio" are in excellent form, boasting a seven-match unbeaten streak with five wins and two draws, outscoring their opponents 13-2. These performances secured Subeldía's squad a fifth-place finish in Serie A, granting them direct qualification to the Copa Libertadores group stage. Undoubtedly, Fluminense are the favorites in this matchup, while also keeping in mind their recent loss to Vasco at "São Januário". Despite their successful run, Fluminense have not been as dominant on the road: they are currently unbeaten in their last three away matches, but looking at their last 10 away games, they have won only twice, with four losses and four draws. The "Tricolors from Rio" have lifted the Cup once before, back in 2007.
Match Results: Fluminense
Latest news
Vasco da Gama
❌ Lucas Piton, Jair Junior, and Adson Ferreira Soares will miss the matches due to injuries.
Fluminense
❌ Manuel Messias Silva Carvalho and Germán Cano will miss the match due to injuries. Agustín Canobbio is out because of an accumulation of yellow cards.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- The current home team averages 1.24 goals, while the visitors average 1.15;
- The average total goals in head-to-head matches is 2.39;
- Both teams have scored: 32 times overall; 15 times at the home team's venue.
Statistics: Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
- Average tournament total: 2.25 vs 3.13;
- Average goals scored: 1.63 vs 2.5;
- Average first-half total: 1.25 vs 1.13;
- Average second-half total: 0.38 vs 1.38;
- Vasco da Gama: average home total in the tournament - 1.67;
- Fluminense: average away total in the tournament - 3.2;
- Last 10 matches (average total): 1.1 (home - 1.6) vs 1.5 (away - 0.5).
- Vasco da Gama have scored at home in 9 of their last 10 meetings against this opponent.
Corners Prediction
Vasco da Gama: Statistics
- Season: average tournament total - 3.88; at home - 3.33;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 3.8; at home - 5.4.
Fluminense: Statistics
- Season: average tournament total - 6.75, away - 7.2;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 4.2; away - 3.
- Total under 9.5 corners has occurred in the last 5 head-to-head matches between these teams.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 54;
- Both teams have scored overall - 32 times;
- At the home team's ground - 15 times.
Correct Score Prediction
Frequent Results Statistics (Current Season):
- The most common scoreline in the tournament: 1-0 (15/113, 13.3%), 1-1 (15/113, 13.3%);
- Vasco da Gama's most frequent home result: 1-1 (2/3, 66.7%);
- Fluminense's most frequent away result: 1-2 (2/5, 40%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top-3 outcomes:
1-1 - 13.14% (odds: 5.5)
0-1 - 10.76% (odds: 5)
1-2 - 9.4% (odds: 7)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The disparity in the current form of these teams is significant. Even though this is a fierce derby and the first leg of the semi-final, Vasco's crisis runs deep. Fluminense surely remembers their recent defeat at this stadium and will be highly motivated to exact revenge and secure a comfortable advantage before the return leg at the Maracanã. Despite Fluminense's struggles on the road, against a weakened Vasco, they should showcase their quality.
However, the head-to-head stats at the São Januário stadium offer a counterpoint: Vasco da Gama have scored in 9 out of their last 10 home derbies against Fluminense. Derbies are a unique type of match where league standings often take a backseat, and historical trends and motivation play crucial roles. Vasco will desperately cling to their chances in this home fixture, and this impressive statistic suggests they almost always find a way to breach their rival's defense on home turf. Our prediction: Vasco da Gama will score a goal.
Betting Tips: Vasco da Gama - Fluminense
in 7 of last 8 games.in 5 of last 6 games (Copa)..svg)
in 7 of last 8 games.in last 6 games (Copa).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
