Mariehamn vs Ilves Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 For almost four months Mariehamn sat bottom of the Veikkausliiga table, but they head into the final round in fifth. They are level on points with Jaro - 17 each - and their goal difference is better by just one. Fifth place leads to the play-offs, sixth means direct relegation. Jaro travel to Turku on Saturday, while Mariehamn host Ilves two hours later - on 10 October.
Head-to-Head
The last league meeting between these two went to Ilves, who scored both their goals before half-time - despite Mariehamn having the better of the chances, outshooting them 16-10 and winning 11 corners to four.
In 34 official meetings, Ilves have won 16 times and Mariehamn 11, with seven draws. Ilves also lead on goals scored, 53-40.
Head-to-head statistics Mariehamn - Ilves
IFK Mariehamn Team Overview
In their previous Veikkausliiga match, Mariehamn lost 1-2 away to SJK, despite leading 1-0 at half-time.
Mariehamn have won their last three matches at Wiklöf Holding Arena without conceding in any of them. The most recent was decided by 17-year-old midfielder Arvid Bergvik, who scored against TPS as early as the seventh minute - and that was enough. Bergvik was named in the team of the month for September. Before 15 August, Mariehamn had not won a single match this season. Robert Björknessjö's side now have 12 points from six rounds. On Saturday they play their final home match of the relegation group stage.
Match Results: IFK Mariehamn
Tampereen Ilves Team Overview
Ilves's 3-0 win over TPS Turku stands out for the contrast in shots: in that final Veikkausliiga round, the visitors were outshot 13-28. Ilves managed six shots on target yet took the points comfortably.
Ilves finished only ninth in the regular season, but they have been faultless in the relegation group. In September, Camilo Speranza's side won all three matches with an aggregate score of 8-1. Ilves have moved up to second place, two points behind Lahti. Teemu Hytönen scored half of the team's September goals and, after that run, leads the league's scoring charts outright. The club have already extended Speranza's contract until 2027.
Match Results: Tampereen Ilves
Match Result Prediction
Mariehamn have failed to win in 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings. The hosts have also looked poor this season overall, managing just 4 wins against 16 defeats. A bet on Ilves not to lose therefore looks a logical wager, even if the odds are modest.
Reliable Bet
Mariehamn have lost by no more than one goal in six consecutive matches. Crucially, they have suffered only five defeats at home this season. A bet on the home side with a handicap (+1.5) looks like a reliable option.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, three scorelines have been identified as the most likely outcomes: 1-1 (11.45%), 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-2 (8.89%). These options reflect the balance of power between the two sides and a tendency towards moderate scoring.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Mariehamn have not conceded at home since 25 July. Behind that run sits another: in their last six home Veikkausliiga matches, the two sides combined for fewer than three goals. Ilves arrive on the back of three consecutive wins, but they have struggled to put up big numbers in Mariehamn. In 10 of their last 11 visits there, the away side scored no more than two goals. The hosts are fighting for a play-off place, and we expect a tight game with one or two goals. The bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: IFK Mariehamn - Tampereen Ilves
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