TPS vs Jaro Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 With two rounds left, Jaro sit in the bottom six of the Veikkausliiga. They are level on points with Mariehamn - both on 17. Mariehamn are above them solely on goal difference by one goal. That one goal matters enormously: last place means automatic relegation, second-to-last means a play-off. The two sides will meet on 17 October in Jakobstad, but first Jaro face an away trip to Turku on 10 October.
Head-to-Head
TPS Turku beat FF Jaro 3-2 in their most recent Veikkausliiga meeting, having trailed 1-2 at half-time. The winners significantly outshot their opponents, 23-15 overall and 11-5 on target.
Across 40 head-to-head meetings, TPS Turku have the upper hand: 20 wins to FF Jaro's 11, with nine draws. The goal difference also favours TPS Turku - 75:55.
Head-to-head statistics TPS - Jaro
TPS Turku Team Overview
In their previous Veikkausliiga match, TPS Turku lost 0-3 at home to Ilves. The result does contrast with the shot statistics, though: the hosts had 28 shots to Ilves's 13 but failed to score.
TPS have already achieved their objective as a newly promoted side: Ivan Piñol's team cannot finish in the relegation play-off places regardless of results. The foundation of their season has been home form - 23 points from a possible 33 in the regular championship, the best record in the league. But goals have dried up there. Their last three matches at Veritas Stadion have brought two goalless draws and a three-goal defeat to Ilves. The last time TPS scored at home was on 1 August, when they beat Mariehamn 3-0.
Match Results: TPS Turku
Jaro Team Overview
In their most recent away match in the Veikkausliiga, FF Jaro came from behind to draw 1-1 with Lahti, having trailed at half-time. Lahti had a significant edge in shots - 21 to 12 - although both sides were level on shots on target at 4-4.
Jaro lost their top scorer in the summer: Herman Sjögrell, who had seven goals, moved to Inter Turku. Against TPS, the Swede scored in both meetings this season - all four of Jaro's goals in that fixture were his. In June he scored twice in Turku, but Jaro still lost 2-3. Without Sjögrell, goals have been hard to come by for Jens Karlsson's side: they have managed just two in three matches in the relegation group. On 18 September in Lahti, Jaro were rescued by Valde Löfs. The substitute midfielder scored right at the end of normal time - his first goal in the league. That point keeps Jaro in contention for survival.
Match Results: Jaro
The Reliable Bet
TPS Turku have gone unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings with FF Jaro. On top of that, the visitors have been poor away from home, losing 11 of their last 12 matches on the road. That makes a bet on TPS Turku not to lose the natural call here.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are: 1:0 (12.8%), 1:1 (12.27%), 2:0 (10.25%). These figures reflect the probability distribution based on statistical analysis and trends.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Jaro need the points more, but they barely pick any up away from home. Jens Karlsson's side have not won any of their 13 away matches in the Veikkausliiga this season. Jaro have come away empty-handed in 10 of their last 11 on the road. They have also conceded in 12 consecutive away league matches, which is TPS's main opportunity. And TPS need an opportunity right now: they have scored just one goal in their last five rounds. No side in the Veikkausliiga has conceded more than Jaro this season - 48 goals. The head-to-head record also favours TPS: the Turku club have gone unbeaten against Jaro in 8 of their last 9 meetings. We expect the hosts to end their scoring drought in Turku and take the win. The bet is TPS to win. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: TPS Turku - Jaro
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