Hearts vs St Mirren Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 Hearts come into this match on the back of a strong home run and high scoring, while St Mirren are trying to find some consistency after a difficult spell. The league situation gives both sides moderately high motivation: Hearts are sitting in the leading group, a small distance behind first place, while St Mirren are fighting to hold their position among the top teams. The main contrast is the hosts' stability against the visitors' inconsistent results.
Hearts have traditionally held the upper hand.
St Mirren beat Hearts 1-0 in their Premier League meeting. Goalless at half-time, the hosts finished the match with a clear advantage in shots (21-5) and expected goals - 2.33 to 0.35.
📊 Across 50 official meetings, Hearts have won 25 times, St Mirren 13, with 12 draws. Hearts' home record is particularly strong: 18 wins from 23 home matches, compared to two for St Mirren.
Head-to-head statistics Hearts - St Mirren
Hearts: the team’s impressive attacking output
Hearts drew 1-1 away at Kilmarnock in their previous Premiership match. Trailing at half-time, they equalised and finished the game with a shots advantage of 17-4 and an expected goals figure of 1.92 against 0.42.
Hearts are in good form, with three wins and one defeat in their last five matches, plus one draw. Over their last ten games, they have won six and lost just once, averaging 2.3 goals per match. Their seasonal averages stand at 2 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their home record is particularly impressive, with a run of ten consecutive home wins underlining their strength on their own ground. Their league objective is to close the gap on the top of the table, though the stage of the season allows them to play without too much pressure.
Match Results: Heart of Midlothian
St Mirren: below-average attacking output
St Mirren's home match against Dundee United ended in a 3-0 defeat, with all three goals scored before half-time. In that Scottish Premiership match, St Mirren had 59% possession but failed to register a single shot on target from ten attempts, while their opponents managed nine.
St Mirren sit fifth and remain in contention for a medal place, but their recent form raises questions: just one win from their last five matches, with three defeats and a draw. Over their last ten games, they have four wins and five defeats, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match - the defence remains vulnerable even by the standards of opponents in the upper half of the table. Their season statistics also point to a low overall goal total, with low-scoring results a frequent outcome.
Match Results: St. Mirren
Match Result Prediction
Hearts have won 10 consecutive home matches in the Premiership, which points to a clear trend. On top of that, they have won all 3 home matches this season without losing at home once (0 defeats). St Mirren, by contrast, have only one win from 3 away matches this season. Taken together, this makes a Hearts win worth considering at odds of 1.45*.
Total Goals Prediction
Hearts have scored more than 1.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 home matches, which is backed up by the corresponding trend. Their average goals scored at home this season is 2.67 per game, and 2.6 over their last 10 home matches. This makes the bet on Hearts Team Total - Over 1.5 a reasonable one at odds of 1.43*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
In 8 of their last 9 matches, Hearts have both scored and conceded, which points to a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Further support comes from the fact that Hearts have conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches. It is worth noting, however, that St Mirren average just 1 goal per away game, which slightly reduces confidence in the bet. That said, Both Teams to Score - Yes is priced at 1.62*.
Reliable Bet
Hearts have gone unbeaten at home in 24 of their last 25 matches, which speaks to the team's consistency on their own ground. This season they have yet to suffer a home defeat, and their home run has been a confident one. The Double Chance - 1X looks a reliable option at odds of 1.1*.
Correct Score Prediction
The algorithm identifies three most likely outcomes: 1-0 (11.78%), 2-1 (10.79%) and 2-0 (10.19%). A narrow Hearts win by 1-0 is considered the most probable result. The probabilities are fairly close together, which points to an expectation of a tight match.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.*
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The trend towards under 3.5 goals in St Mirren's matches looks well established: that outcome has come in 17 of their last 18 games. Despite Hearts showing decent productivity, the visitors are not a particularly high-powered attacking side and often play pragmatically, which reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The hosts' form remains steady, but the visitors' defence rarely allows opponents to open up fully. Both sides are motivated by their league objectives, though the early stage of the season leaves room for more cautious outcomes without excessive risk. The main prediction is Total Goals - Under 3.5. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Heart of Midlothian - St. Mirren
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