Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026

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Key points

    🔊 Club football is back after the international break, and that means the English Premier League returns. The opening match of the sixth round sees the reigning champions take on one of the biggest surprise packages of the new season. Arsenal host Leeds. The visitors have gone unbeaten through their first five matchdays, and now face a serious test against the strongest English side of recent years. The Gunners need to make amends for their heavy defeat to Brighton and will have a great deal riding on this match. It should make for an interesting finish.

    🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.

    Total dominance from the London side

    📊 In recent history, Leeds have been unable to get the better of Arsenal either at home or away. The two sides have met eight times in the Premier League in recent seasons, with Arsenal winning seven of those matches. The only occasion they failed to win ended in a goalless draw - a match in which the Gunners were reduced to ten men.

    Head-to-head statistics Arsenal - Leeds

    85%
    11 Wins
    15%
    2 Draws
    0%
    0 Wins
    Total games
    13
    Avg. total goals
    3
    Both teams scored
    46%
    2.46
    Average total
    0.54
    0.85
    Yellow cards
    1.92
    Last matches
    31.01.26
    EPL
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    0.14
    2.44
    4
    12
    10
    7
    1
    1
    0
    4
    0
    2
    0
    2
    0.14
    2.44
    4
    12
    10
    7
    1
    1
    23.08.25
    EPL
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    2.8
    0.19
    2
    2
    8
    11
    0
    2
    5
    0
    2
    0
    3
    0
    2.8
    0.19
    2
    2
    8
    11
    0
    2
    01.04.23
    EPL
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    -
    -
    4
    3
    11
    13
    0
    2
    4
    1
    1
    0
    3
    1
    -
    -
    4
    3
    11
    13
    0
    2
    16.10.22
    EPL
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    -
    -
    6
    3
    10
    11
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    -
    -
    6
    3
    10
    11
    0
    2
    08.05.22
    EPL
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    1
    -
    -
    8
    2
    13
    15
    2
    2
    2
    1
    2
    0
    0
    1
    -
    -
    8
    2
    13
    15
    2
    2
    Empty
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    Arsenal: their recent defeat serves as extra motivation to bounce back with a win

    The Gunners are chasing top spot in the league. Their last match ended in a shocking heavy defeat away at Brighton (0:3). Mikel Arteta's side had 60 per cent of the ball but their opponents were able to take control during certain spells and convert their chances in those periods. It was also the first time in 20 Premier League matches that Arsenal had failed to score.

    That defeat was the Gunners' first slip-up of the season. Before the Brighton match, Arsenal had put together a seven-game winning run across all competitions, beating Manchester City in the Community Shield, picking up their first three points in the Champions League league phase, progressing to the next round of the League Cup, and collecting 12 points in the league. What's more, in the four league matches before facing the Seagulls, Arsenal had conceded just one goal - exactly three times fewer than they let in on the south coast last weekend.

    Match Results: Arsenal

    Last matches
    19.09.26
    EPL
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    1.52
    1.37
    5
    6
    12
    10
    4
    1
    3
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1.52
    1.37
    5
    6
    12
    10
    4
    1
    L
    15.09.26
    EFL Cup
    Ipswich Town
    Ipswich Town
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    0.98
    1.12
    3
    2
    11
    13
    2
    0
    2
    4
    0
    2
    2
    2
    0.98
    1.12
    3
    2
    11
    13
    2
    0
    W
    12.09.26
    EPL
    Sunderland
    Sunderland
    1
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    1.79
    2.14
    4
    2
    18
    11
    4
    2
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    1.79
    2.14
    4
    2
    18
    11
    4
    2
    W
    09.09.26
    UCL
    Napoli
    Napoli
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    0.31
    3.6
    0
    6
    12
    11
    2
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0.31
    3.6
    0
    6
    12
    11
    2
    1
    W
    06.09.26
    EPL
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    2.26
    0.47
    5
    3
    13
    16
    2
    4
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    2.26
    0.47
    5
    3
    13
    16
    2
    4
    W
    Empty
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    Leeds: a pragmatic style of play

    Leeds are shaping up as one of the surprise packages of the Premier League season so far. The Peacocks are one of five sides to have gone unbeaten through the opening five rounds, and Daniel Farke's men have moved into fifth place in the table. Their style of play is built on pragmatism, with the emphasis on winning narrowly or taking a point.

    Only two of Leeds' matches in the early part of the season have produced a high number of goals. The first was a cup tie against Chelsea that turned into a genuine goal fest, with nine scored in total - Leeds went out, losing 3-6. The second was a home match against Newcastle, where the Peacocks won convincingly for the first time this season, 4-1, without sitting on the result. That said, this was more a reflection of Newcastle's poor performance in that match than of Leeds' attacking quality.

    Match Results: Leeds United

    Last matches
    20.09.26
    EPL
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    Crystal Palace
    Crystal Palace
    1.35
    0.88
    4
    3
    10
    11
    2
    3
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1.35
    0.88
    4
    3
    10
    11
    2
    3
    D
    14.09.26
    EPL
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    Newcastle United
    Newcastle United
    1.96
    0.77
    5
    5
    8
    13
    1
    2
    4
    1
    3
    0
    1
    1
    1.96
    0.77
    5
    5
    8
    13
    1
    2
    W
    09.09.26
    EFL Cup
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    2.38
    2.44
    3
    5
    6
    10
    1
    0
    6
    3
    0
    1
    6
    2
    2.38
    2.44
    3
    5
    6
    10
    1
    0
    L
    05.09.26
    EPL
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    2.36
    2.02
    7
    6
    12
    15
    3
    3
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    0
    2.36
    2.02
    7
    6
    12
    15
    3
    3
    D
    30.08.26
    EPL
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    Brentford
    Brentford
    1.12
    1.84
    5
    6
    5
    13
    0
    4
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    0
    1.12
    1.84
    5
    6
    5
    13
    0
    4
    D
    Empty
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    Latest news

    Arsenal

    ❌ Mikel Arteta is still without centre-back William Saliba through injury, and Christos Tsoilis is also injured.

    ❓ Ezri Konsa and Kai Havertz are doubts for the match.

    Leeds United

    ❌ Joe Rodon and Mateo Fernandez are listed as injured.

    ❓ Whether Harry Wilson will feature in the match is currently unknown.

    Predicted Lineups

    📋 Predicted Arsenal starting XI: Raya - Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori - Rice, Guimarães, Ødegaard - Saka, Gyökeres, Eze.

    📋 Predicted Leeds starting XI: Trafford - Muharemovic, Elvedi, Justin - Bogle, Štach, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson - Okafor, Calvert-Lewin.

    ⚽ Goals Prediction

    In three of the last four head-to-head meetings, Both Teams to Score - No has landed. Arsenal have been the only side to score in recent matches between these two, winning comfortably each time. This pattern could well continue, and we're backing Both Teams to Score - No at 1.73*.

    🚩 Corner Prediction

    Mikel Arteta's side consistently generate between 6 and 9 corners per game in home matches against opposition at Leeds' level. Daniel Farke's Peacocks have been very solid defensively this autumn and have conceded fewer goals than anyone else in the league. The team are also happy to hit on the counter-attack, and six of Leeds' last seven away league matches have ended with a combined total of over 9.5 corners. The prediction is Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.48*.

    🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

    Arsenal play from a position of strength and dominate possession. They commit fouls infrequently, picking up cards mainly when breaking up opposition counter-attacks. Leeds will be forced to defend deep away from home. Daniel Farke's side are well organised, but under pressure from Arsenal's technical attack they may start to give away fouls. The prediction is Leeds to receive more yellow cards at odds of 1.68*.

    🚀 Player Stats Bet

    Viktor Gyökeres is a Swedish forward at Arsenal. The striker is in excellent form. During the international break he scored in every game for his national side - four goals in four matches - and helped the team pick up the points they needed. In our view, the Swede has every chance of getting on the scoresheet here. We're backing Gyökeres to Score at 2.26*.

    😱 Risky Bet

    For those looking for a higher price, here is an alternative option. There is a good chance that Arsenal, following their defeat, will do everything they can to at least avoid losing this match, while the visitors need to hold on for a draw to protect their league position - to do that, they are likely to sit in a low block and keep the scoring to a minimum. The risky bet is Arsenal not to lose + Total Goals - Under 1.5, priced at 4.5*.

    🎯 Reliable Bet

    Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed in 15 consecutive Arsenal Premier League matches and in 7 of Leeds' last 8 Premier League matches. Based on these trends, there is every reason to expect a low-scoring game, and as a reliable bet we can go for an even safer option - Total Goals - Under 4, priced at 1.2*.

    👀 If the match doesn't go to plan

    If Arsenal, stung by their defeat last round, decide to play aggressively and leave space behind, Leeds could well get on the scoresheet, though the hosts would still take the win and the goals would add up. Should the match follow the high-scoring pattern of recent head-to-head meetings, which ended 4-0, 5-0 and 4-1, we have an appropriate bet in mind. The alternative prediction is Total Goals - Over 2.5, priced at 1.85*.

    *Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

    ⭐️ Editorial Prediction

    Arsenal need to put right what went wrong last week and give their fans a win, otherwise the battle for top spot could become significantly harder. Leeds are no pushovers, and don't let the odds mislead you - there will be no thrashing here. The visitors will be happy with a draw and will do everything they can to keep it goalless for as long as possible. Their results suggest they know how to defend a score and do so regularly. We think this will be a low-scoring game, and our main prediction is Total Goals - Under 3. Predicted score: 1-0.

    Total goals Under (3)
    Odds-189
    Published: 09/10/2026, 00:37
    Daniil Shilovich
    Daniil Shilovich
    Football expert
    11
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    20 predictions
    Statistics for October 2026

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    Betting Tips: Arsenal - Leeds United

    Arsenal have won the 1st half:
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 7 games against Leeds United (Premier League).
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 6 games against Leeds United.
    1st Half Arsenal to Win
    Bovada
    -120
    Arsenal have won:
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 8 games against Leeds United.
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 7 games against Leeds United (Premier League).
    arsenalin 9 of last 10 games (Premier League).
    arsenalin 8 of last 9 home games (Premier League).
    arsenalin 7 of last 8 games.
    arsenalin last 6 home games.
    Arsenal to Win
    Bovada
    -278
    Leeds United have not lost:
    leeds-unitedin 13 of last 14 games (Premier League).
    leeds-unitedin 9 of last 10 away games (Premier League).
    leeds-unitedin 8 of last 9 games.
    Leeds United will not lose
    Everygame
    +198
    Arsenal have not lost:
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 13 games against Leeds United.
    arsenalleeds-unitedin last 8 games against Leeds United (Premier League).
    arsenalin 15 of last 16 games.
    arsenalin 14 of last 15 home games.
    arsenalin 9 of last 10 games (Premier League).
    arsenalin 8 of last 9 home games (Premier League).
    Leeds United have not won:
    leeds-unitedin 16 of last 18 away games (Premier League).
    Arsenal will not lose
    Everygame
    -1111
    View more facts

    Comparison of Teams Stats

    10 matches
    8 - Wins
    0 - Draws
    2 - Losses
    Wins - 5
    Draws - 3
    Losses - 2
    10 matches
    Scored - 19
    Conceded - 8
    +11
    +5
    19 - Scored
    14 - Conceded
    8
    Wins
    5
    0
    Draws
    3
    2
    Losses
    2
    Goal difference
    19
    Scored
    19
    8
    Conceded
    14
    2.7
    Average total per match
    3.3
    1.9
    Goals scored per match on average
    1.9
    0.8
    Goals conceded per match on average
    1.4
    4
    Both teams scored
    6
    49'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    47'
    View all stats