Atl. Mineiro vs Gremio Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 7 November 2026
🔊 Atletico Mineiro head into their Brazilian Cup match on the back of five straight defeats, reflecting serious difficulties in recent games. Gremio, by contrast, have won three of their last five matches and shown more consistent results. The visitors score more often on average, and Gremio have now scored in seven consecutive matches. This contrast in form and goalscoring sets up the question: can the hosts end their losing run and overturn a two-goal deficit, or will the visitors continue their successful run and reach the final?
Head-to-Head History with a Clear Favourite
On 01 November 2026, Gremio beat Atletico Mineiro 2-0 at home in the Brazilian Cup, despite the visitors having 76% possession and taking 20 shots to Gremio’s 6. Atletico Mineiro failed to score from any of their four shots on target.
Gremio have the edge in 41 official meetings, with 22 wins to Atletico Mineiro’s 12, while seven matches ended in draws. Gremio also lead on goals, 67 to 48.
Head-to-head statistics Atl. Mineiro - Gremio
Poor play at both ends of the pitch
Atletico Mineiro lost 0-1 away to Botafogo in their previous Serie A match on 5 November 2026. The visitors had 68% possession and mounted 50 dangerous attacks to Botafogo's 22, but failed to score despite both sides having three shots on target.
Atlético Mineiro are going through a difficult spell: five defeats in their last five matches and only four wins in their last ten. They score an average of 1.1 goals per game but concede almost as many - 1.2. These figures point to problems in defence and a lack of consistency in attack. Although Atlético Mineiro are often involved in matches with plenty of corners at home, their current form makes a strong attacking performance unlikely. The hosts need to overturn a two-goal deficit, and to do that they will have to improve in attack.
Match Results: Atletico Mineiro
The defence looks shaky
At half-time in Gremio's last Serie A match on 4 November 2026, Flamengo led 3-0; the away game ended in a 3-1 defeat for Gremio. The visitors were outshot 16-7, while their expected goals figure was 0.31 compared with their opponents' 2.03.
Gremio are in a much more positive position: three wins in their last five matches and a run of seven consecutive games with a goal underline their attacking potential. Over a ten-match stretch, the visitors have won three times, drawn three times and lost four times, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. This season, Gremio have been consistently converting their chances, as reflected in their tendency to score in almost every match, even away from home.
Match Results: Gremio
Match Result Prediction
Grêmio covered the +1.5 handicap in 13 of their last 15 matches. In the current season's sample, they have not lost any of their seven matches, while Atlético Mineiro have won two of their three home games. These figures do not rule out a home win, but they provide grounds to back Grêmio - Handicap +1.5 at odds of 1.45*.
Total Goals Prediction
Atletico Mineiro have scored an average of 1.4 goals in their last ten home matches and 1.33 goals at home in the season sample. Gremio have conceded an average of 0.33 goals per away match in the season sample. However, that figure for Gremio is 1.75 goals in their recent away matches, which reduces confidence in the prediction. Based on these figures, we pick Atletico Mineiro Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 at odds of 1.91*.
Corners Prediction
Gremio's matches have produced over 10.5 corners eight times in a row. More than 9.5 corners were taken in six of Atletico Mineiro's last seven home matches - a lower line, but one that also points to high corner counts. We pick Total Corners - Over 10.5 at odds of 1.82*.
High-Risk Bet
Atletico Mineiro have avoided defeat in 17 of their last 18 home matches, while Gremio have avoided defeat in six consecutive matches. This season, the hosts have drawn one of their three home matches, while the visitors have drawn two of their three away matches. Both teams’ unbeaten runs leave room for a draw, although these figures do not make it an inevitable outcome. We pick a draw at odds of 4.10*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.*
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:0 (17.37%), 0:0 (14.48%) and 0:1 (11.16%). Of these, 1:0 is the most likely. The 0:0 scoreline ranks second, while 0:1 ranks third.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Atletico Mineiro’s form points to serious problems in both defence and attack, and their run of defeats gives little reason to expect a sharp improvement. Gremio, by contrast, have scored consistently - seven consecutive matches with a goal underline the reliability of their attack. The trend for the visitors’ Team Total Goals - Over 0.5 looks like a logical continuation of their form: they regularly convert chances even against opponents who play cautiously. The main prediction is Gremio to score.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Mineiro - Gremio
in last 5 games.
in last 6 games (Copa).in 17 of last 18 home games.in 11 of last 12 away games.
in 11 of last 12 home games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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