Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 7 January 2025

🔊 Which team will take a step closer to the League Cup final? The opponents will play two matches to determine the stronger side. The first game will take place at the "Emirates" Stadium in London. Arsenal is considered the favorite, but they are unfortunate to face Newcastle right now, as they are in excellent form. Therefore, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

Over a stretch of 39 head-to-head matches, Arsenal has the advantage with 69% wins. However, this season they lost to Newcastle at "St. James' Park" (0:1). Then, the only goal was scored by Alexander Isak in the 12th minute. At home, Arsenal plays much more effectively. In 6 of the last 7 matches at the "Emirates," they have scored at least two goals against Newcastle. Therefore, it's worth noting a bet on Arsenal's total goals over 1.5.

🔴 Arsenal

Arsenal is in second place in the Premier League. The gap from Liverpool is quite large but not yet critical. The team hasn't lost in the Premier League for two months. The last defeat was inflicted by Newcastle. However, the "Gunners" occasionally drop points. For example, last weekend they drew with Brighton (1:1). They clearly missed Bukayo Saka, who was injured. Meanwhile, Arteta rested Odegaard and Martinelli, bringing them on only in the second half. The League Cup is one of the tournaments where Arsenal has a great chance for a trophy. They thrashed Bolton and Preston and met Crystal Palace in the quarterfinals. Arteta also made significant rotations then, but the main squad came on during the match because the opponent won the first half, and something needed to change. Ultimately, Gabriel Jesus became the hero of the match, scoring a hat-trick and securing a comeback victory in the London derby (3:2). Arsenal has an impressive list of injured players. Ethan Nwaneri, who scored the only goal against Brighton just recently, has joined it. Saka, Sterling, Tomiyasu, and White will also not play.

⚫ Newcastle

Until recently, Newcastle had a rather mediocre season, sitting mid-table. However, how well they have improved by the end of 2024! The team has won five consecutive Premier League matches, climbing to fifth place. It's enough to say that they are only one point behind Chelsea, so the battle for the Champions League is still ahead. During this stretch, the "Magpies" conceded only one goal. This happened in a clash with Tottenham last weekend (2:1). The opponent scored as early as the fourth minute, but Newcastle equalized in the next attack and even took the lead before halftime, setting what turned out to be the final score. If we consider the League Cup, Eddie Howe's team's winning streak reaches six matches. In the quarterfinals, they easily defeated Brentford (3:1), with Sandro Tonali scoring a brace after his long suspension ended. Notably, Newcastle's path through the tournament was much tougher than Arsenal's. They knocked out Nottingham Forest after a penalty shootout (2:1) and Chelsea (2:0). The team's rise coincided chronologically with an injury to their main goalkeeper Nick Pope. Kraft, Lascelles, and Wilson are also on the injured list. Fabian Schar will not play in the upcoming match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Craig Pawson. This season he has officiated 18 matches at various levels, including those involving Arsenal and Newcastle. On average, he calls 22 fouls and shows 3.89 yellow cards per game.

This season, Newcastle receives more cautions - 2.2 compared to 1.8. In matches involving Newcastle, there are an average of five yellow cards. In their only head-to-head meeting this season, the teams received eight yellow cards combined. Considering the referee's statistics, a bet on total yellow cards over 3.5 seems reasonable.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Arsenal has scored in 16 of their last 17 home matches. Without Bukayo Saka, their attacking potential is significantly lower. Nevertheless, a goal from the hosts is expected. On the other hand, Newcastle is in excellent form. They have scored away in 14 of 15 games. Therefore, as a potential bet we note - both teams to score (Yes).

🚩 Corner Prediction

In Arsenal's last five matches, they have had no more than five corners. Everyone already understands that this is quite a powerful weapon for the team, so they try to minimize such threats at their own goal. The total number of corners has also decreased. In 7 of their last 8 matches at the "Emirates," more than 10 corner kicks were not taken. There is a similar trend in head-to-head meetings, so a bet on total corners under 10.5 seems justified.

📝 Match Prediction

Arsenal is the favorite for the upcoming match. If they want to compete for the trophy, they need to start the semifinal with a win in their home game. Head-to-head statistics favor the "Gunners." But Newcastle is currently in such great form! Therefore, they are unlikely to lose by a large margin. In this situation, we suggest a potential exact score of 2:1.

Newcastle will definitely play with their main squad. They don't have European competitions, and securing a top-6 spot in the Premier League is extremely challenging. The intrigue lies in what lineup Arteta will choose. Considering that he left two key players on the bench against Brighton, all the strongest players will take to the field at "Emirates." Therefore, Arsenal should at least score. However, it's unlikely they will contain such an attack from Newcastle. Thus our key bet is - both teams to score (Yes).