Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction 5 February 2025

🔊 Can Arsenal reach the League Cup final? To do so, they need to recover at least two goals that the team conceded in the first match. There is a chance for this, as Newcastle has hit a slump. Nevertheless, bookmakers see the "Magpies" as the favorites in the two-legged tie, as they will play the return leg at their home stadium, St. James' Park. On our part, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

Over the span of 40 head-to-head matches, Arsenal holds an advantage with 68% victories. However, this season they have not only failed to beat Newcastle but haven't even scored against them. In November, the "Gunners" lost at St. James' Park by a narrow margin (0:1). The only goal in the 12th minute was scored by Alexander Isak. He also opened the scoring in the League Cup semifinal, where Newcastle won by two goals (2:0). Moreover, the team scores no more than one goal in 13 of the last 15 head-to-head matches. Therefore, as a potential bet, we note Newcastle's total goals under 1.5.

⚪ Newcastle

Not long ago, Newcastle was in excellent form, securing nine consecutive victories in the Premier League, League Cup, and FA Cup. This allowed the team to climb up the league table and even intensify their fight for European competitions, including the Champions League. However, they failed in their last two home matches. The "black and whites" suffered a heavy defeat from Bournemouth (1:4) and were left without points against Fulham (1:2) last weekend. It's worth noting that Newcastle had a tough path in the League Cup, eliminating Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, and Brentford. During the winter transfer window, the club did not strengthen its squad. Meanwhile, they parted ways with Miguel Almiron, who lost his place in the starting lineup in his seventh season at Newcastle. In the upcoming match, Harvey Barnes, Callum Wilson, and Jamaal Lascelles will not play due to injuries.

🔴 Arsenal

After losing to Newcastle in the League Cup, Arsenal was knocked out of the FA Cup by Manchester United. Therefore, this season the club might once again end up without a trophy. Moreover, a forward was not acquired despite interest in several strikers, including Alexander Isak. In the next six matches across different competitions, Arsenal secured five victories, only failing to defeat Aston Villa (2:2). In the Champions League, they advanced to the playoffs from third place behind Barcelona and Liverpool. The "Gunners" are chasing the Merseysiders in the EPL, trailing by six points. Notably, they recently achieved a psychologically important victory over Manchester City (5:1). Arsenal's path to the League Cup semifinal was much easier than Newcastle's. It is enough to say that they faced only one opponent from the EPL - Crystal Palace (3:2). It is worth noting that Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Ben White are still in the infirmary.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Despite Newcastle losing two recent home matches, they generally perform well in first halves. In 14 consecutive matches, they scored in the first 45 minutes. This includes both head-to-head encounters this season. Considering that Arsenal needs to attack from the first minutes to recover from their deficit, Newcastle might catch them on a counterattack. Therefore, a profitable bet seems to be - hosts to score in the 1st half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

This season, Arsenal has an advantage on corners - 6.8 compared to 5.7. Meanwhile, matches involving Newcastle average 11 corners. In the first semifinal match, this mark was achieved by Arsenal alone. Therefore, a bet on total corners over 9.5 seems justified.

📝 Match Prediction

Arsenal is considered the favorite for the upcoming match. However, bookmakers do not believe in their overall success in the tie. Moreover, in 12 of the last 14 head-to-head matches at St. James' Park, Newcastle did not lose by more than one goal. Hence, we note a potential exact score of 1:2.

It is unlikely that Arsenal will not attempt to recover. They might manage to score against Newcastle for the first time this season, especially since the "Magpies" have not been particularly reliable defensively lately. But keeping their own goal intact is also unlikely. Therefore, as a key bet we choose - both teams to score (Yes). Additionally, Arsenal has both scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches.