Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 7 November 2026

📊 In 44 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid have won 25 times, Valencia have won 9, and another 10 have ended in draws. The average is 3.55 goals per match, and both teams have scored in 68% of them. 

Real Madrid have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings. The two most recent matches were particularly convincing: the Madrid side thrashed Valencia at home (4-0) before winning away (2-0).

Real Madrid have scored 28 goals in 11 rounds, averaging 2.55 per match. At least three goals have been scored in 9 of the visitors’ last 10 matches. Valencia have been less prolific, although they concede an average of 1.83 goals at home.

A goal from the hosts could be another argument in favour of a high-scoring match. Sadiq’s return gives Aguirre an additional threat in the penalty area, while Real Madrid’s defence do not always withstand pressure from opponents. Real Madrid will surely create plenty of chances, but the visitors, tired after Athens, may also give their opponents opportunities. We expect an open game. Bet: Total Goals - Over 3 at 1.65*.

Real Madrid average 6.36 corners per league match. In addition, they have taken at least 5 corners in 7 of their last 8 away matches in all competitions. These figures are partly linked to their high attacking volume: Real Madrid have taken 145 shots in 11 league matches, forcing opponents to block attempts and put the ball behind for corners.

At home, Valencia allow opponents an average of 4.67 corners. Against Real Madrid, the hosts will probably have to spend more time around their own penalty area than they do in a typical match. Vinícius’s absence reduces the number of driving runs down the left flank, but Mourinho still has Arda Güler, Yan Diomande and attacking full-backs. Our pick: Real Madrid Team Total Corners - Over 5.5 at 1.60*.

Valencia have received 25 yellow cards in 11 rounds - an average of 2.27 bookings per match. At home, they have picked up at least 3 cards in 2 of their 6 matches in the current league campaign. Real Madrid's figures are slightly lower, with 21 bookings over the same period. However, they are among the teams whose opponents frequently commit fouls against them. In 11 rounds, Real Madrid's players have drawn 145 fouls.

Aguirre demands that Valencia close down opponents more aggressively and win more duels. Against Mbappé, Diomande and Bellingham, that approach could lead to frequent fouls. We’re backing Valencia Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5.

Kylian Mbappé continues to pull away from his rivals in the La Liga scoring race. The Frenchman has scored 12 goals in 11 rounds - almost half of Real Madrid’s goals in the league. Without Vinícius, his role in attack becomes even more important. Mourinho may change the positioning of the other players, but the main target for passes into the box remains the same. We’re backing Kylian Mbappé to score.

Real Madrid have turned comeback wins into an art form in recent weeks. On Wednesday, they fell behind twice against AEK and equalised both times before snatching all three points. Something similar has already happened at the Mestalla. In January 2025, Valencia took the lead (1-0) and Real Madrid were reduced to ten men after Vinícius was sent off, but they still won (2-1).

The hosts have a chance to take advantage of Real Madrid’s fatigue and start the match more aggressively. Even if Aguirre’s team open the scoring, holding on to their lead will not be easy. The visitors have a deeper squad, and Mourinho has strengthened their play with substitutions on more than one occasion. Our pick: Real Madrid to fall behind during the match and avoid defeat at 5.10*.

Real Madrid's attacking form is the visitors' main advantage. They have scored at least two goals in each of their last five matches, including one against Barcelona. The team have remained prolific in Vinicius's absence. Bellingham, Diomande and Güler have partly filled the gap he has left, while Mbappé regularly finishes off attacks. We'll back Real Madrid Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.30*.

Valencia have reason to try to close off the central areas and force Real Madrid to spend long spells looking for space. In their previous two home league matches, Aguirre’s side conceded just twice, drawing with Athletic and losing to Villarreal. The defence still makes mistakes, but the Mexican is trying to reduce the number of dangerous chances they allow.

Real Madrid may spend the first half trying to break down the defence. After a packed schedule, Mourinho is unlikely to want an end-to-end contest from the opening minutes. We expect the main battle to unfold after the break, so the first half could end level. Prediction: first-half draw at 3.00*.

*The odds are approximate and may differ between bookmakers.

⭐️ Editor’s Prediction

Real Madrid travel to Valencia after a tough Champions League away match, but the league standings do not allow Mourinho to rest players. The Madrid side have a chance to draw level with Barcelona on points. The visitors have the edge over Valencia in attacking quality, squad depth and consistency of results. The favourites’ main problem is the short turnaround.

Valencia will almost certainly try to make the most of their home support and start more aggressively than usual. Sadiq’s return increases the chances of the hosts scoring, but they will find it difficult to maintain the tempo against Real Madrid. Valencia’s poor finishing and persistent defensive errors give the visitors a chance not only to take all three points but also to win by several goals. Correct score prediction: 1-3. Main bet: Real Madrid - Handicap -1.5.