Mainz vs Bayern Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 7 November 2026

📊 In their 41 previous head-to-head meetings, Bayern Munich have won 28, Mainz 05 have won eight, and five have ended in draws. The fixture has averaged four goals per game. Their last meeting of the previous season was particularly memorable: Mainz 05 led 3-0 at half-time but ultimately lost 4-3.

Mainz 05 matches average around 4.38 cards, compared with roughly 3.13 in Bayern Munich fixtures. The hosts are more likely to get involved in physical challenges and commit fouls to stop quick counter-attacks. Given the gulf in quality between the sides and Mainz 05’s need to defend against one of the league’s strongest attacks, over 3.5 yellow cards is worth considering.

Bayern Munich are averaging 3.38 goals per match, while Mainz 05 are conceding 2.13. With key players missing in defence, the hosts are unlikely to contain Bayern Munich’s attack for the full 90 minutes. Even after a European away trip, the visitors should have enough in reserve to create plenty of chances. The main pick is Bayern Munich to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66*.

Bayern Munich average 8.6 corners per match, the highest figure in the Bundesliga. Mainz 05 also make good use of set pieces, averaging 5.8 corners per game, but they are likely to spend much of this match defending against Bayern Munich. Sustained pressure from the visitors could lead to plenty of crosses and blocked shots. That makes Bayern Munich over 6.5 team corners worth considering at odds of 2.06*.

Draw at half-time - Bayern Munich to win - 5.00*. Mainz 05 are capable of making life difficult for the favourites early on, particularly at home and with points to play for. Sustaining that resistance for the full 90 minutes, though, will be much harder. Bayern Munich have the stronger squad and a title-winning mentality, giving them the ability to raise their game after the break and wear down tiring opponents. A Bayern Munich win after a level first half therefore looks an appealing option.

Bayern Munich to win - 1.35*. Bayern Munich are far stronger in attack and remain unbeaten in the league. Mainz 05 have struggled at home, and defensive absences leave them even more vulnerable.

Harry Kane to score - 1.44*. According to Transfermarkt, the Englishman has 18 goal contributions in 14 matches across all competitions, with 10 goals and eight assists. He has taken 37 shots in eight Bundesliga appearances, averaging around 4.6 per game. With Ismael Saibari injured, Kane is likely to start. The Ballon d’Or winner remains Bayern Munich’s main attacking threat and should have plenty of chances to score.

If Mainz 05 take a surprise lead or keep the scores level until half-time, Bayern Munich are likely to step up the pressure. They have enough attacking options on the bench to change the game after the break. In that scenario, Bayern Munich to score over 1.5 goals in the second half could be worth considering as a live bet.

*Odds are indicative and may vary by bookmaker.

⭐ Editor’s prediction

Bayern Munich head into this match as clear favourites, with a significant edge in squad quality, goalscoring and consistency. Mainz 05 could take advantage if the visitors rotate their squad, but their defensive problems may undermine any attempt to put up a fight. Given Mainz 05’s struggles at home and Bayern Munich’s attacking firepower, I expect the reigning champions to win. Final prediction: Bayern Munich to win with a -1.5 handicap. Correct-score prediction: 1-3.