France vs Belgium Prediction 5 October 2026
🔊 On 28 September in Brussels, France snatched a late victory over Belgium. The return fixture has first place in the group at stake: France are on seven points, Belgium on six. Both sides come into it with injury problems. Zidane is without his top scorer and a key defensive figure, while van Bommel has lost two central midfield leaders.
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Head-to-Head
📊 France won the two main head-to-head meetings of recent years by a single goal: the 2018 World Cup semi-final and the Euro 2024 Round of 16. Belgium scored no more than one goal against France in 6 of their last 7 away head-to-head meetings.
Head-to-head statistics France - Belgium
France: Zidane rotates his squad to maintain top spot
Zinedine Zidane took charge of the France national team at the end of July. Didier Deschamps left after the World Cup, where France lost to Spain in the semi-final and finished fourth. Under Zidane, the team have taken seven points from nine: they won in Turkey and Brussels, and drew at home against Italy. That is enough to put them top of the group so far.
Between the matches in Turkey and Belgium, Zidane made nine changes. Jérémy Jacquet, Andy Diouf and Lucas Da Cunha all made their first starts for the national team against Belgium. Da Cunha performed well enough in the holding midfield role to keep his place against Italy as well. The only player to start all three matches was goalkeeper Mike Maignan.
Match Results: France
Belgium: Van Bommel sticks with his core and experienced veterans
Mark van Bommel took charge of Belgium at the end of July after the federation chose not to renew Rudi Garcia's contract. At the World Cup, Belgium reached the quarter-finals before losing to Spain. The new manager began with a confident performance in Rome, where his side beat Italy 2-0. After a slip-up against France, Belgium thrashed Turkey and sit second with six points.
Belgium's main strength at the moment is their veterans. Against Turkey, 35-year-old Kevin De Bruyne scored twice, while Romelu Lukaku came off the bench to score his 94th international goal. Van Bommel makes very few changes to his side. Eight players have started all three of his matches: Lammens, Mechele, Ngoy, Castagne, Tielemans, De Bruyne, Godts and De Ketelaere.
Match Results: Belgium
Latest news
France
❓ Kylian Mbappé is missing the entire camp: he injured a knee tendon during the Turkey gathering and has returned to Madrid. Dayot Upamecano received two yellow cards against Italy on Friday and was sent off. The defender is suspended, and the federation has already released him to Munich. Warren Zaïre-Emery is also absent from the squad with a thigh injury. That leaves Zinedine Zidane with Jérémy Jacquet, Maxence Lacroix and Leny Yoro as his centre-back options.
Belgium
❓ Belgium will be without Kevin De Bruyne and captain Youri Tielemans. Both picked up their second yellow card of the window on Friday against Turkey and are suspended for the match. Van Bommel came to De Bruyne's defence, saying the midfielder simply lost his composure and seemingly did not even notice the booking.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for France: Maignan - Kalulu, Jacquet, Lacroix, Truffert - Cherki, Da Cunha, Rabiot - Olise, Dembele, Doue.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Belgium: Lammens - Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper - Lavia, Raskin - Lukebakio, Vanaken, Godts - De Ketelaere.
⚽️ Goals prediction
France have scored more than two goals in none of their last six home Nations League matches. Under Zidane they have scored exactly one goal in each of their three fixtures. One was enough to win in Turkey and Brussels, but only earned a draw against Italy. Belgium's defence has also held firm: they have conceded just once in three matches. We are not expecting the hosts to run riot. The bet is France Team Total - Under 2.5.
🚩 Corners prediction
Belgium have taken at least four corners in ten consecutive away matches. In the Nations League away from home, they have reached that mark in 8 of their last 9 trips. Across their last ten matches in total, Belgium have taken 51 corners. Even against a possession-oriented France side, four corners looks well within their reach. The bet is Belgium Team Total Corners - Over 3.5.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
Referees have shown at least three yellow cards in 8 of France's last 9 Nations League matches. Belgium picked up four bookings on Friday against Turkey, with the referee showing seven in total that day. Across the last ten matches, referees have shown Belgium and their opponents 35 yellows combined, and France and their opponents 23. The bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5 yellow cards.
🚀 Player statistic bet
Michael Olise has scored in each of France's last two matches, both coming off the bench and in the starting XI. In Brussels he came on in the 77th minute and, eleven minutes later, converted an assist from Ryan Cherki to win the match. Against Italy he started and opened the scoring from a free kick. That is his ninth goal in 28 appearances for the national team. The bet is Michael Olise to Score.
😱 Risky bet
France have won the second half in five consecutive meetings with Belgium. After the break, France have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches overall. The risk is that Belgium are strong in the second half away from home too: they have won the second half in five consecutive away matches. But against France, that strength has not translated into results so far. The bet is France to Win the Second Half at 2.42*.
🎯 Safe bet
Fewer than five goals have been scored in 15 consecutive Belgium Nations League matches. Away from home, that has been the case nine times in a row. France show the same pattern: in six consecutive home matches in the tournament, the combined total has been under five goals. This is the most reliable option of the evening. The bet is Total Goals - Under 4.5 at 1.24*.
👀 If the match goes off script
The likely scenario is France controlling possession and wearing their opponents down after the break. The first half could change that: away from home, Belgium have won it in 6 of their last 7 matches. If the visitors lead at half-time, France will have to open up, giving Lukebakio and Godts space on the counter. In that case the match would move towards Both Teams to Score and Total Goals - Over 2.5, and a bet on Belgium not to lose would become a viable live option.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.📌 Editorial Prediction
France have won seven consecutive head-to-head matches against Belgium. The managerial changes at both sides have had no effect on that run so far. France have gone unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 home matches and go into this one as favourites again. Belgium will be without Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans in Saint-Denis, both suspended after accumulating yellow cards. France, however, are also missing Kylian Mbappé and Dayot Upamecano. We are expecting an eighth consecutive French win in this fixture. The bet is France to Win. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: France - Belgium
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