Man City vs Newcastle Prediction 4 February 2026
🔊 Who will make it to the EFL Cup final? On January 4th, Manchester City are set to go all out to finish what they started in mid-December. Back then, the Citizens secured a significant 2-0 victory over Newcastle on their turf, creating a solid foundation to advance past the semifinal stage. The return leg will take place at the Etihad, and bookmakers see no reason why Pep Guardiola's side would let the final slip away. Let's find out if there are any reasons to doubt them.
Head-to-Head
📊 A trip to the Etihad usually spells defeat for Newcastle. The Magpies have lost 17 of their last 18 away matches against Man City, and that says it all. What's even more astonishing is that under Eddie Howe, the black-and-whites haven't scored a single goal at the Citizens' stadium. Their last goal there dates back to the Rafael Benitez era-over seven years ago!
Head-to-head statistics Man City - Newcastle
Manchester City Team Overview
It's hard to say Manchester City are in crisis, although failing to win more than half of their matches since the start of the year is unusual for a Guardiola-led side. Part of the issue has been a spate of injuries. In some games, the "Citizens" were outplayed, like in the derby against Manchester United (0-2), while in others, they were simply unlucky - as evidenced by their recent draw with Tottenham (2-2).
In the League Cup, the "Sky Blues" have gradually faced tougher challenges, progressing from a League One team to the reigning champions. It's fair to say that no team has posed significant problems for them so far. Even the formidable Newcastle at their home ground, St James' Park, were convincingly defeated (2-0). A key player for Man City in the League Cup has been Rayan Cherki, who has scored in each of the last three matches.
Match Results: Manchester City
Newcastle United Team Overview
Eddie Howe's team is experiencing another rough patch this season. They've managed just one win in their last six matches, defeating PSV 3-0. The Magpies' fixture list hasn't been kind. They put up a commendable performance away against PSG with a 1-1 draw, but ran out of steam at Anfield in the recent Premier League round, suffering a 1-4 defeat. The primary issue has been numerous injuries.
In the League Cup, a well-deserved loss to Man City marked the Magpies' first defeat in their last 11 matches in this competition. Newcastle's path to the semifinals was somewhat tougher than that of the Citizens, having faced Tottenham (2-0) and Fulham (2-1) in earlier rounds. Against the Cottagers, Howe's side held the upper hand and rightfully secured the win, while the match against Spurs was more evenly contested.
Match Results: Newcastle United
Latest news
Manchester City
❓ Rumors are swirling that Pep Guardiola is in his final season at the helm of Manchester City. Even the reputable David Ornstein has reported that the likelihood of the Spaniard's departure at the end of the season is extremely high. The Telegraph states that there are three contenders on the shortlist to replace him: Cesc Fabregas, Xabi Alonso, and Enzo Maresca.
❌ The home side have Mateo Kovacic, Josko Gvardiol, Jeremy Doku, and John Stones in the treatment room. Ruben Dias and Savinho are in the final stages of their injury recovery, making their participation in the upcoming fixture uncertain. The same goes for Rayan Cherki, who was forced off the pitch in last round's Premier League match. Marc Guehi will definitely be unavailable to support his teammates. According to the rules, a player must be registered with the club before the start of the semi-finals to participate in the League Cup.
Newcastle United
🎙 Eddie Howe after the thrashing by Liverpool: “We're very disappointed. Our initial game plan was effective, but we conceded unnecessary goals. Credit must go to Hugo Ekitike, unfortunately. We earned plenty of set-pieces but failed to capitalize on them. Despite this, there are still many positives, and I'm particularly pleased with my players' commitment. Will there be new signings in the winter? As far as I know, no. There are rumors, but I have nothing to confirm at this moment.”
❌ Newcastle are seriously hampered by injuries: Emil Krafth, Tino Livramento, and Fabian Schar have been sidelined for a long time. However, the most significant losses for the Magpies are in midfield, with Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães unavailable. The captain remains doubtful for the second leg of the semi-final.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The semifinal will be officiated by Tony Harrington. The Englishman has overseen 2 matches in this season's League Cup, handing out 7 cautions (3.5 per game). His average in the Premier League is similar, at around 3.1 yellow cards per match. Therefore, we suggest a bet on over 2.5 yellow cards, a wager that has come through in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head encounters between Newcastle and Manchester City. With a spot in the final at stake, it's unlikely this trend will change. Emotions are bound to run high.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
The Magpies have struggled on the road this season and have been particularly poor away at Manchester City. Newcastle score less than 1.5 goals in 19 of their last 20 meetings at the Etihad. We see no compelling reason why the Magpies would suddenly break the two-goal barrier this time around.
🚩 Corner Prediction
A promising betting option appears to be over 3.5 corners for Newcastle. It's clear that playing at the Etihad will be tough, but City have their defensive frailties, and the visitors, considering the first leg score, will need to actively seek opportunities up front, including through set pieces. Let's not forget that Eddie Howe's side leads the Premier League in average corners won this season (6.62). Even away from home, their figure is impressive at 5.92 per game.
Editorial Prediction
Let's not keep you in suspense and get straight to our verdict. Considering Newcastle's disastrous record at the Etihad, we don't believe in a comeback for the Magpies. On the contrary, we think the Citizens will capitalize on their opponent's need to take risks and secure the second leg as well. Yes, injuries have been a challenge for Guardiola, but his team displayed solid form against Galatasaray (2-0), and they arguably should have beaten Tottenham too. We predict the upcoming match won't be the most thrilling and will end with a 2-0 victory for Manchester City.
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Betting Tips: Manchester City - Newcastle United
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