Newcastle vs Man City Prediction
🔊 In the fifth round of the FA Cup at St. James' Park, two teams that have become fierce rivals by 2026 will face off. For the Magpies, this marks their fourth attempt to overcome Manchester City in recent months, and so far, the record is disheartening: three defeats, including both legs of the League Cup semifinals. The FA Cup remains Eddie Howe's squad's last realistic shot at a trophy this season, but they face a formidable opponent on their path to the quarterfinals.
Head-to-Head
📊 As mentioned earlier, this year the Citizens have come out on top against the Magpies in all three encounters: in the Premier League (2-1 at the Etihad) and in both legs of the League Cup semifinals (3-1 at home and 2-0 away). However, in the first round of the league, Newcastle triumphed on their home turf thanks to a brace from Harvey Barnes (2-1), so Eddie Howe's side still remembers the taste of victory.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Newcastle United Team Overview
Newcastle sit 12th in the Premier League with 39 points. The Magpies finally ended their three-match home losing streak in the league by defeating Manchester United 2-1. The match was filled with drama: Jacob Ramsey received a second yellow card in the 46th minute, leaving Eddie Howe's side to play the entire second half with ten men. Despite this setback, they managed to clinch victory in the 90th minute, with substitute William Osula scoring the winning goal after a solo run.
Newcastle's FA Cup journey began in the third round, where they overcame two formidable opponents: Bournemouth (7-6 on penalties) and Aston Villa (3-1). Sandro Tonali was the hero of the previous round, netting twice against the Lions.
Match Results: Newcastle United
Manchester City Team Overview
The "Citizens" currently sit second in the Premier League with 60 points, but their gap to Arsenal has widened to seven points following a home draw against Nottingham Forest (2-2). In that match, Guardiola's side led twice, and it seemed like nothing could go wrong, but they let the victory slip away as Newcastle academy graduate Elliot Anderson equalized in the 76th minute. Prior to this, they had won six consecutive matches across all competitions.
In the FA Cup, on their way to the Round of 16, Manchester City thrashed Exeter City (10-1) and secured a modest win over Salford City (2-0). Interestingly, three of the goals in these matches were own goals. The "Citizens" have won 18 of their last 20 FA Cup matches, with their only losses coming in the finals of 2024 and 2025.
Match Results: Manchester City
Latest news
Newcastle United
🎙 Eddie Howe on the upcoming match: "Our games against Manchester City this season have been tight. We've had our chances against them. I think we lacked the composure to win those encounters. We've drawn the toughest opponent possible, but we're just aiming to try and win. I have great respect for Pep, for what he does and how he coaches."
❌ Jacob Ramsey is suspended (two yellow cards in the match against Man United). Bruno Guimarães (hamstring injury), Fabian Schär (ankle), Emil Krafth (knee), and Lewis Miley (hip) are sidelined. Tino Livramento (hamstring) is doubtful, as is Nick Woltemade, who missed the Man United game due to illness. Sandro Tonali, who has played six consecutive full matches, will undergo a fitness test before the game. Eddie Howe is likely to opt for a defensive setup with Kieran Trippier, Malik Thiaw, Sven Botman, and Dan Burn in the backline, relying on counterattacks through the pacey Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes.
Manchester City
🎙 Pep Guardiola on cup mentality: "How many times have we reached the semi-finals and finals? I'll tell you: many. This shows just how important this tournament is for us. We're heading to Newcastle to win and advance, 100% focused."
❌ Joško Gvardiol (leg fracture) and Mateo Kovačić (ankle injury) remain long-term absentees. Nico O'Reilly, who picked up a knock against Leeds, is recovering, and his readiness will be assessed right before the game. Rotation is expected with the Champions League clash against Real Madrid next week in mind. James Trafford is likely to start in goal, with Abduqodir Khusanov and John Stones in defense. The midfield could feature Nico González, Rico Lewis, and Tijjani Reijnders, while the attack may see Jeremy Doku, Omar Marmoush, and Antoine Semenyo leading the line.
🟨 Prediction on Yellow Cards
The main referee will be Samuel Barrott. On average, the Englishman hands out 3.5 cautions per game in the current Premier League season. In the FA Cup, Barrott officiated one match where he showed 4 yellow cards.
Barrott is not shy about issuing cards in intense matches, and the rivalry adds to the tension. Therefore, we suggest betting on over 1.5 yellow cards for Manchester City. Pep Guardiola's side have surpassed this mark in their last 7 matches at St. James' Park.
⚽ Goal Prediction
It's no secret that encounters with Man City are tough for Newcastle: in 6 of their last 7 meetings, the Magpies have scored fewer than 1.5 goals. Considering the packed schedule, squad issues, and a recent grueling match against Manchester United, we lean towards this trend continuing. This goal prediction seems the most well-founded.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Newcastle averages 7.1 corners per match at home - the best in the Premier League. Manchester City averages 4 away. The hosts will counter-attack and press forward with the support of their fans, making this an area where they can outshine the Citizens. Therefore, our bet is on over 3.5 corners for Newcastle, a bet that has won in six consecutive head-to-head matches.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Antoine Semenyo has seamlessly integrated into Man City's lineup following his transfer. The Ghanaian has already netted 7 goals for the Citizens, scoring in both an FA Cup match and a recent encounter with Newcastle. With Erling Haaland just recovering from a muscle injury and possibly starting on the bench, Semenyo is likely to be the main attacking threat. A good option in our view is a goal by Antoine Semenyo at odds of 2.6*.
😱 Risky Bet
Matches between Newcastle and Man City have become a fierce rivalry. Both teams fight for every inch of the pitch, resulting in over 7 warnings in 2 of their last 3 encounters. Samuel Barrott may enforce discipline, making a bet on over 6.5 yellow cards with odds of 7.7* a tempting risk.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
If Manchester City scores early, the hosts will need to open up to equalize quickly, as Newcastle excels in the first half when they can maintain high intensity. In this scenario, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 2.5 goals in the first half, which has come through in a couple of recent meetings between these teams. In-play betting might offer an attractive odds opportunity.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
Newcastle, after their heroic victory over Manchester United with ten men, have gained a psychological boost, but injuries and Ramsey's suspension severely limit their rotation options. Manchester City stumbled against Nottingham and will be highly motivated to bounce back. Moreover, the squad depth allows Guardiola to rotate players comfortably ahead of their match with Real Madrid.
However, as head-to-head stats suggest, visiting St James' Park and keeping a clean sheet is a tough task for the "Citizens," especially with squad rotation in play. Therefore, our main pick is both teams to score (yes), with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 in favor of City. The bet on both teams scoring has come through in Newcastle's last 11 consecutive matches.
Betting Tips: Newcastle United - Manchester City
in 9 of last 10 games.in 6 of last 7 games.
in 7 of last 8 games against Manchester City.in last 10 games.in 25 of last 26 games against Manchester City.in 21 of last 22 home games against Manchester City.in last 12 games.in 8 of last 9 home games.in last 11 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
