Rafaela vs Quilmes Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 October 2026
🔊 As the season enters its final stretch, Atlético Rafaela and Quilmes meet in a match where both sides desperately need points. The hosts still have a chance of reaching the play-offs but are five points off the target zone with three rounds to go. The visitors are fighting to stay in the league, sitting just six points clear of the danger zone. Both teams have been inconsistent in recent matches, which adds extra interest to the contest.
Why do draws dominate this head-to-head?
Quilmes beat Atlético Rafaela 2-0 in the Primera B Nacional 31 May 2026. Both sides had an equal number of shots - 13 each - but Quilmes were more accurate, putting 7 on target to Rafaela's 4.
Across 20 official meetings, the two sides have drawn nine times. Rafaela's Atlético have won six and Quilmes five, with Quilmes having scored slightly more goals - 27 to 24.
Head-to-head statistics Rafaela - Quilmes
What’s behind Atlético Rafaela’s slump
Atlético Rafaela's most recent Primera Nacional match, on 10 October 2026, ended in a 0-4 away defeat to Midland. Despite generating more attacks - 147 to 134 - they managed only five shots compared to 15 from their opponents.
Atlético Rafaela are going through a difficult spell, having lost four of their last five matches with just one win. Over their last ten games, they have managed only three wins against five defeats, averaging exactly one goal per match. Their defence has looked vulnerable during this period, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. Their home form stands out as a more consistent thread, though: the club have scored in nine of their last ten matches on their own ground, suggesting they are capable of creating chances regularly at home even during this broader downturn.
Match Results: Atletico Rafaela
What can we expect from Quilmes going forward?
In their previous Primera Nacional match on 10 October 2026, Quilmes lost at home to Agropecuario 0-1. The hosts had 11 corners to their opponents' two and held 59% possession, but were outshot 7-11.
Quilmes are also struggling to pick up points - three wins and five defeats from their last ten matches is an unconvincing return for a side that needs to move away from the bottom of the table. In their last five games, two wins are accompanied by three defeats and one draw, while their attack has been modest in output, averaging just 0.7 goals scored per match over the last ten games, with a similarly average defensive record of 0.8 conceded. That said, seven of their previous eight matches ended with under 2.5 goals, which reflects the visitors' cautious style and low scoring across much of the season.
Match Results: Quilmes
Total Goals Prediction
Quilmes have failed to score away from home in four consecutive matches, which is reflected in their recent trend. Over their last 10 away games their average goals scored stands at 0, further confirming their low output on the road. However, Atlético Rafaela concede an average of 0.75 goals per game at home this season, which tempers confidence in a completely goalless performance from the visitors. Even so, Quilmes's run looks compelling enough to back Quilmes Team Total - Under 0.5 at odds of 2.35*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the three most likely outcomes are 0-0 (19.09%), 1-0 (15.21%) and 0-1 (13.22%). A goalless draw has the highest probability, while the gap between the second and third options is not particularly large. All three outcomes reflect the generally low-scoring nature of the match.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
This match carries real significance for both sides: the hosts are clinging to a chance of reaching the play-off places ahead of the final rounds of the season, while the visitors are defending their position outside the relegation zone - both have strong motivation at this decisive stage. The trends suggest that Atlético Rafaela's home matches rarely pass without the hosts scoring, even during a general dip in form; at the same time, Quilmes are frequently involved in low-scoring games, with an emphasis on defensive solidity and minimal risk going forward. Our prediction: Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Rafaela - Quilmes
in 24 of last 25 away games (Primera B Nacional).in last 10 Quilmes games.in 9 of last 10 home games (Primera B Nacional).in 7 of last 8 Quilmes games (Primera B Nacional).Comparison of Teams Stats
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