Rodina vs Spartak Moscow Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 15 October 2026
🔉 Rodina and Spartak meet in the fourth round of the Russian Cup group stage. The two sides sit at opposite ends of the table, but a win for the hosts would cut the gap to the leaders to a minimum. Both teams lost their last RPL fixture, so the motivation going into this cup tie will be particularly high.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have already met twice this season, and Spartak had no problems in either game. In the league they won 3-0, and in the Cup they scored three again but conceded once. Both matches were played at Spartak's home ground; now they travel to Khimki.
Head-to-head statistics Rodina - Spartak Moscow
Rodina: the coaching change has made no difference
Just before the international break ended, Rodina appointed Jonathan Alba as head coach - he had previously been sacked by Rostov. Alba spent most of the break working with the Russia national team as an assistant to Valery Karpin, so he had no time with his new club. That showed immediately in their first RPL match back, a heavy 3-0 defeat to CSKA. It was their seventh loss in their last eight matches across all competitions.
In their debut RPL season, Rodina have rarely kept a clean sheet. The only match in which they have not conceded was a 5-0 cup win over Rubin in the Russian Cup. Across the whole season, they are conceding an average of 2.46 goals per game. They have let in 25 in the RPL and seven in the Cup - both figures are the worst in their respective competitions.
Match Results: Rodina Moscow
Spartak once again falter under pressure
Before the international break, Spartak beat Rostov and Fakel at home, which put the club among the contenders for top spot. In the tenth round, Spartak drew away at Krylya Sovetov (1-1) and stayed fifth, when a win would have lifted them into the top three. It was the second time this season the club had let slip a chance to close the gap on the leaders to the maximum.
The match against the Samara club extended several of the team's ongoing runs. Spartak scored again - they have now found the net in ten consecutive official matches. The only games in which they have kept a clean sheet during that run were home fixtures: wins over Zenit, Lokomotiv and Fakel. Away from home, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches.
Match Results: Spartak Moscow
Latest news
Rodina Moscow
Iker Pozo cannot play in the RPL due to a suspension, but it does not carry over to the Russian Cup. The midfielder will most likely start from the first minute.
Spartak Moscow
Alexander Maksimenko was sent off in the match against Krylya Sovetov and was replaced by Ilya Pomazun. The goalkeeper has had little playing time and will probably start in order to prepare for the next RPL match.
Match Result Prediction
Rodina have lost 7 of their last 8 matches, which points to clear difficulties for the side. This season they have also won just one match and lost two of their three, while Spartak look more consistent - two wins from three matches and only one defeat. Against that backdrop, backing a Spartak win at odds of 1.41* looks justified.
Total Prediction
Rodina have scored under 1.5 goals in eight consecutive matches, which is consistent with their average of just one goal per game over their last 10 fixtures. On top of that, Spartak have conceded an average of under one goal per game over their last 10 matches. The bet on Rodina Team Total - Under 1.5 at 1.34* therefore looks reasonable.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely correct scores are 1-2 (9.57%), 1-1 (7.23%) and 1-3 (6.56%). The 1-2 scoreline has the highest probability, though the difference between all three options is small, which points to a fairly even distribution of probabilities.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.*
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Rodina have changed their head coach, but there has been no quick improvement. The team lost again and conceded three goals. Spartak, coming off a draw with Krylya Sovetov, will be eager to get back to winning ways, and they also tend to find it easier against sides who struggle to defend deep and apply a high press. The first two meetings between these sides this season both ended in convincing Spartak victories, and both were high-scoring. We expect that run to continue. Our pick for this match is Total Goals - Over 3.
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Betting Tips: Rodina Moscow - Spartak Moscow
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