Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction 3 August 2026
🔥 In the third round of the Mexican Apertura, Estadio Nemesio Díez hosts a genuinely intriguing match between Toluca and Necaxa. The home side want to give their fans something to cheer about and close the gap on the teams at the top. Necaxa arrive in good spirits - maximum points from their opening two games. Toluca's injury problems add another layer to this one, giving the visitors an easier task against a weakened squad. Expect both teams to go at each other, with plenty of attacking intent on both sides.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides ended 0-3. Here's how the stats looked in that game (Necaxa were the home side):
- Possession: 45% vs 55%;
- Corners: 3 vs 7;
- Fouls: 8 vs 15;
- Yellow cards: 4 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 6 vs 6.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Toluca and Necaxa:
- 37 matches played;
- home wins - 18, away wins - 6, draws - 13;
- goals - 65 vs 37;
- average first-half total - 1.22, second-half - 1.54;
- average total goals per match - 2.76.
Head-to-head statistics Toluca - Necaxa
Toluca Team Overview
Their last official match was in the Liga MX Super Cup - Toluca at home, Cruz Azul away. It ended 1-3.
Match stats (Toluca vs Cruz Azul):
- Possession: 56% vs 44%
- Corners: 5 vs 4
- Fouls: 11 vs 15
- Yellow cards: 0 vs 2
- Shots on target: 4 vs 7
Toluca sit seventh in the table, picking up three points from their last two matches. The football has been decent enough - three goals scored, two conceded at the start of the tournament. The main problem is injuries in midfield and attack. Marcel Ruiz is out long-term with a cruciate ligament tear, and young forward Osvaldo Virgen is also sidelined. Despite the squad issues, at home they always look to take the initiative and push forward.
Match Results: Toluca
Necaxa Team Overview
The visitors' last official match was in Liga MX - Necaxa hosted Monterrey and won 2:1.
Stats from that game (Necaxa vs Monterrey):
- Possession: 65% vs 35%
- Corners: 4 vs 1
- Fouls: 21 vs 14
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 2
- Shots on target: 9 vs 2
Necaxa are having a fine run of form, sitting comfortably in fourth place with six points. Back-to-back wins with a combined score of 4-2 have given the squad a real boost of confidence. One major advantage for the visitors is a fully fit squad - no injuries, no suspensions. The team is playing balanced football and looking dangerous on the counter-attack away from home.
Match Results: Necaxa
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- the home team scores on average - 1.76, the guests - 1;
- average over/under goals in head-to-head matches - 2.76;
- both teams scored: overall - 21; at the home team's field - 10.
- Over 2.5 goals scored in last 5 Toluca games against Necaxa (Liga MX).
Prediction on corners
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.5; at home field - 9;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.3; at home field - 5.5.
Necaxa: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 7.5, away - 0;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.8; away - 5.
- Necaxa have taken over 2.5 corners in 9 of last 10 away games against Toluca (Liga MX).
- Necaxa have taken over 2.5 corners in 17 of last 18 away games (Liga MX).
- Necaxa have taken over 2.5 corners in 16 of last 17 away games.
- Necaxa have taken over 2.5 corners in 12 of last 14 games (Liga MX).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 37;
- home team wins - 18, away team wins - 6, draws - 13.
Statistics: Toluca vs Necaxa
- matches played in the tournament: 2 vs 2;
- wins: 1 vs 2;
- win percentage: 50% vs 100%;
- losses: 1 vs 0;
- draws: 0 vs 0.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 4 vs 4;
- losses: 6 vs 3;
- draws: 0 vs 3.
- Necaxa won with a +2.5 handicap in 12 of last 13 away games (Liga MX).
- Necaxa won with a +2.5 handicap in 11 of last 12 games (Liga MX).
⭐ Editor's Pick
The stats and playing style of the visitors point clearly to a match with goals at both ends. Necaxa have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 Liga MX games. Toluca at home consistently push forward and rarely leave the pitch without scoring. The defensive gaps in the hosts' backline will only make life easier for the visitors' attack. Given Necaxa's good form and Toluca's pressure at home, Both Teams To Score Yes is the most logical call here. A 2-1 scoreline looks possible.
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Betting Tips: Toluca - Necaxa
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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