Mali vs Tunisia Prediction 3 January 2026
🔊 On Saturday at the Stade Mohammed V in Casablanca, the Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 will see Mali (Group A) and Tunisia (Group C), both runners-up in their respective groups, face off. These teams have clashed four times in the Africa Cup of Nations, with Mali remaining unbeaten - securing two wins and two draws. This will mark their first head-to-head encounter in the tournament's knockout stage, as all previous matches between them occurred during the group phase. The odds for both teams to advance are quite high, though bookmakers slightly favor the "Carthage Eagles." The winner of this match-up will face either Senegal or Sudan in the quarter-finals.
Head-to-Head
📊 The last time these national teams faced each other was at the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations. That encounter ended in a 1-1 draw. Mali topped Group E, while the "Carthage Eagles" finished at the bottom.
Head-to-head statistics Mali - Tunisia
Mali Team Overview
🟡 Tom Saintfiet's squad advanced to the playoffs, securing second place in Group A with three points. Mali focused on reliability and organization over attacking prowess, drawing all three group stage matches. In the opening round, the Eagles played to a 1-1 draw with Zimbabwe, then shared the spoils with Morocco (1-1), and finished with a goalless draw against the Comoros Islands. As a result, Mali have reached the Africa Cup of Nations playoffs for the fourth consecutive time. This marks the team's tenth advancement from the group stage in the tournament's history. They are currently on a four-match winless streak in the AFCON, with their last victory coming in the Round of 16 against Burkina Faso (2-1) in 2023. A win in the upcoming match would see them reach the quarterfinals for the seventh time in their history (1994, 2002, 2004, 2012, 2013, 2023).
Match Results: Mali
Tunisia Team Overview
🔴 Sami Trabelsi’s side clinched second place in Group C after defeating Uganda 3-1, losing to Nigeria 3-2, and drawing with Tanzania 1-1. The four points they earned were enough to secure a spot in the playoffs. The "Carthage Eagles" have returned to the Round of 16 after a disappointing campaign in the 2023 tournament. This marks the 14th time in their history that Tunisia have advanced from the group stage at the Africa Cup of Nations. The victory over Uganda was their only win in the last seven matches of the tournament (3 draws, 3 losses). During these seven games, Tunisia managed to keep a clean sheet just once. If they progress to the next round, the national team will make their 12th appearance in the Africa Cup of Nations quarterfinals.
Match Results: Tunisia
Latest news
Mali
🎙 Tom Saintfiet reflected on his team's performance in the group stage: "Honestly, it's a strange feeling. As a coach, you always want to win, especially for the fans. We combine well, but we need to be much more clinical in front of goal. That's something we must work on before the next stage. In the first half against the Comoros Islands, we dominated, but in the second half, we lost control, and only our goalkeeper's reliable performance saved us from defeat after defensive errors."
❌ Aliou Dieng returns to the squad following his suspension, while Amadou Haidara will miss the match due to a red card received in the game against the Comoros Islands. The participation of Siku Niakate and Amari Traore remains uncertain.
Tunisia
🎙 Sami Trabelsi, the head coach of Tunisia's national team, emphasized: "The most important thing is securing progression to the next stage. In recent years, we haven't performed well in this tournament, so qualification holds great significance. We may not have played our best, but we're very pleased to have advanced. Ahead are matches against tougher opponents, and we will truly need to step up our game as the level of competition increases and demands improvement from us."
💊 The "Carthage Eagles" have no players at risk of missing Saturday's match.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
During the group stage, Mali picked up 10 yellow cards (8 of them in the match against Morocco), while Tunisia received just 2 bookings. It's expected that the Tunisians will dominate possession, while Saintfiet's side will focus on physical play and defensive discipline. Based on this, we predict Mali to win the yellow card battle.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Mali have scored in each of their four encounters against Tunisia in the Africa Cup of Nations, opening the scoring in all of them. Meanwhile, Tunisia conceded in all three group stage matches of the current tournament. Additionally, they've managed only one clean sheet in their last seven Africa Cup of Nations games. Taking these factors into account, our pick is both teams to score (yes).
🚩 Corner Prediction
Mali's average for corners over three Group A matches stands at 2.6, while Tunisia's is 5.3. We believe the "Carthage Eagles" will control more of the ball, making a bet on Tunisia's individual total over 3.5 corners an optimal choice.
Editorial Prediction
The upcoming matchup is one of the most unpredictable in the round of 16. The nominal hosts will rely on defensive solidity and discipline, while Tunisia will aim to take the initiative and control possession. Neither team has been particularly impressive in the tournament so far, but our pick is over 1.5 goals, as it's likely that regular time won't be enough to determine a winner, potentially ending in a high-scoring draw at 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Mali - Tunisia
in 6 of last 7 games (Africa Cup of Nations).
in 16 of last 17 games.in 11 of last 12 games (Africa Cup of Nations).in last 6 games against Mali.in last 5 games against Tunisia.in 6 of last 7 games (Africa Cup of Nations).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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