Palmeiras vs Fortaleza Prediction 2 August 2026
🔊 At Nubank Park, Palmeiras host Fortaleza in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie. This is the most clear-cut matchup at this stage - one side is obviously stronger than the other. Palmeiras are currently leading the Brazilian championship, while Fortaleza, who were relegated from the top flight last season, are playing in Série B. Abel Ferreira's side have a simple goal: win not just the league, but the domestic cup too. So in São Paulo, the Verdão will be looking to build as comfortable a lead as possible before the second leg in Fortaleza.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the sides took place on 21 September 2025 and ended 4-1. Here's how the stats looked that day (Palmeiras were the home side):
- possession: 66% vs 34%;
- corners: 11 vs 2;
- fouls: 11 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 9 vs 5.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Palmeiras and Fortaleza:
- 15 matches played;
- home wins - 7, away wins - 5, draws - 3;
- goals - 27 vs 17;
- average first-half total - 1.4, second-half - 1.53;
- average total goals per match - 2.93.
Head-to-head statistics Palmeiras - Fortaleza
Palmeiras Team Overview
Their last official match was played in the Série A (Vitória at home, Palmeiras away). The final score was 0-4.
Match stats (Palmeiras vs Vitória):
- possession: 68% vs 32%;
- corners: 1 vs 6;
- fouls: 15 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 5 vs 3.
Palmeiras reached the Round of 16 after knocking out Jacuipense - a Division D side - 3-0 and 4-1 on aggregate. Since then, the São Paulo club have played eight matches: five wins, one draw, two defeats. They've lost just five games in 2026 overall, and are still firmly on track across all fronts.
They're through to the Copa Libertadores Round of 16, still in the national cup, and leading the Brasileirão by eight points over second-placed Flamengo - who do have a game in hand. In their last Serie A outing, Matchday 21, Palmeiras put four past Vitória without reply.
They go into this one as clear favourites. Palmeiras have lost just two of their last 20 home matches, and in the previous seven meetings with Fortaleza they've scored at least twice every time.
Match Results: Palmeiras
Fortaleza Team Overview
The visiting side's last official match took place in the Série B (Fortaleza at home, Botafogo São Paulo away). It finished 1-0.
Match stats (Fortaleza vs Botafogo São Paulo):
- Possession: 54% vs 46%;
- Corners: 10 vs 6;
- Fouls: 13 vs 18;
- Yellow cards: 0 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 5.
Fortaleza were relegated from the top flight last year and are now pushing for an immediate return, currently sitting fourth in Série B. They reached the Round of 16 of the Copa do Brasil by beating Regatas over two legs (2:1, 0:0) - a side also competing in the second division.
The club recently parted ways with head coach Thiago Carpini and brought in Paulo Autori, who will take charge for the first time against Palmeiras. Their last match was overseen by Reinan Santos, under whom they beat Botafogo de São Paulo 1:0 at home in round 20 of the league.
Clear underdogs, but Fortaleza have a habit of causing Palmeiras problems - they've scored in each of the last seven meetings between the sides. And in the seven previous matches between these two in São Paulo, the total has gone over 2.5 goals every single time.
Match Results: Fortaleza
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 15;
- first-half wins for the home side - 3; for the away side - 0; draws - 4;
- average first-half total: 1.4;
- today's hosts average 0.73 goals in the first half, the away side - 0.67.
First-half stats: Palmeiras (home) vs Fortaleza (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 3;
- wins: 1 (100%) vs 1 (33.33%);
- losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- draws: 0 (0%) vs 2 (66.67%);
- average goals scored: 2 vs 0.33;
- average goals conceded: 0 vs 0.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 5 vs 4;
- losses: 0 vs 4;
- draws: 5 vs 2;
- average first-half total: 1.6 (scored - 1.3, conceded - 0.3) vs 1 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.6).
- Palmeiras have scored in the first half in 7 consecutive head-to-head matches between these two sides at home.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home side - 1.8, away side - 1.13;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.93;
- both teams scored: all time - 6 times; at the home team's ground - 4 times.
Average total stats: Palmeiras vs Fortaleza
- in the tournament: 4 vs 2.4;
- goals scored: 3.5 vs 1.6;
- 1st half: 2.5 vs 0.8;
- 2nd half: 1 vs 0.8;
- Palmeiras: at home in the tournament - 3;
- Fortaleza: away in the tournament - 0.67;
- last 10 matches: 2.2 (home - 1.4) vs 1 (away - 0.8).
- Palmeiras have scored over 1.5 goals at home in 7 consecutive head-to-head matches between these sides.
Corners Prediction
Head-to-head
- average total corners in head-to-head matches - 8.93 (5.53 for the home side, 3.4 for the away side);
- average total corners at the home team's ground - 8.14 (5.57 for the home side, 2.57 for the away side).
Palmeiras: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 11.5; at home - 15;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.9; at home - 5.
Fortaleza: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 6.4; away - 5.67;
- last 10 matches: average total - 7.1; away - 6.4.
- Fortaleza have taken over 2.5 corners in 7 of their last 8 head-to-head meetings.
- Fortaleza have taken over 2.5 corners in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Fortaleza have taken over 2.5 corners away from home in 11 of their last 12 matches.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 15;
- both teams scored - 6 times overall;
- at the home team's ground - 4 times.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 1:1 (20/126, 15.9%);
- Palmeiras at home most often finish matches: 3:0 (1/1, 100%);
- Fortaleza away most often play: 0:1 (2/3, 66.7%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 16.02% (odds 5)
2:0 - 13.22% (odds 4.5)
2:1 - 10.06% (odds 7.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
Palmeiras go into this one as clear favourites. Abel Ferreira's side are in strong form, solid at home, and have a noticeably better squad than Fortaleza. There's real motivation to build a comfortable lead here before the second leg - get the job done early and control the tie from there.
Fortaleza are in transition after the managerial change, and Paulo Autouri's debut couldn't be tougher - straight into an away match against one of the best clubs in the country. The Lions have historically been able to score against Palmeiras, but the gap in current quality and Fortaleza's defensive problems could be the deciding factor.
Our main prediction is a Palmeiras win with a -1.5 handicap. Expect the hosts to come out aggressive from the first minute and put the tie to bed before the return leg. Predicted score - 3:0.
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Betting Tips: Palmeiras - Fortaleza
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