Barys Astana vs Sibir Novosibirsk Prediction 12 October 2026
🔊 Not long ago, Barys were typically seen as a side fighting just to make the playoffs. But this season tells a different story: the Astana club have climbed into the top three of the Eastern Conference and head into another home fixture riding a three-game winning streak. Sibir, on the other hand, remain in the lower half of the table, though they kicked off their road trip on a positive note by defeating Traktor. These teams already met in Astana back in September, when the hosts put seven goals past their opponents. Now, the Novosibirsk outfit will be looking to prove that heavy defeat is firmly behind them.
Seven goals to remember
📊 The first meeting between these teams in the current campaign ended in a heavy defeat for Sibir. Back in early September, Barys routed the Novosibirsk side 7-1 on home ice. Justin Bailey struck twice, while Vsevolod Logvin, Dinmukhamed Kaiyrzhan, Semyon Simonov, Chase Priskie, and Garrett Pilon each added a goal. Daniil Valitov netted the visitors’ only response. That result is especially relevant for this upcoming clash as Barys have already exposed weaknesses in Sibir’s defense. However, Sibir arrive in Astana fresh off a win over Traktor, so a repeat of September’s blowout is far from certain.
Head-to-head statistics Barys Astana - Sibir Novosibirsk
A completely different story
It’s tough to compare Mikhail Kravets’ current side to last season’s Barys. The Astana club haven’t just climbed into the top three of the Eastern Conference-they’ve also started putting up multiple goals against some of the league’s toughest opponents. Riding a three-game winning streak, Barys have edged out Neftekhimik (5-4 OT), Spartak (4-3 SO), and convincingly handled Avangard (5-1). Their offensive improvement is especially striking: Barys have scored more than two goals in seven of their last eight outings. And it’s not just one line doing the damage. Justin Bailey has tallied 16 points (10 goals, 6 assists) in 13 appearances, while Semyon Simonov-who recently played his 100th KHL game-boasts a league-best +13 plus-minus rating this season. The only significant roster concern is Dikhanbek’s injury.
Their most recent clash with Avangard proved Barys can win even without outshooting their opponents. Omsk struck first through Nail Yakupov and ended up outshooting the hosts 42-26, but Astana were far more clinical with their chances. Tyce Thompson equalized with a rebound, then Bailey put Barys ahead early in the second period. Mason Morelli converted on the power play, and Bailey completed his brace with a slick finish in the third. Thompson sealed the win with an empty-netter. Goalie Andrei Shutov played a huge role, turning aside 41 shots. Simonov also deserves special mention-he celebrated his KHL century with two assists.
Match Results: Barys Astana
A hard-fought victory
Sibir continue to struggle in their pursuit of points. Before heading to Kazakhstan, Yaroslav Lyuzhenkov’s side had suffered eight defeats and picked up just three wins over the recent stretch. Two of those losses came against Lokomotiv. The team’s injury list only adds to their woes, with Abramov, Valitov, Gordeyev, and Osipov all sidelined.
Sibir opened their road trip with a gritty 2-1 victory over Traktor, both goals coming in near-identical fashion. Darren Dietz fired in from the blue line, with Arkhip Nekolenko redirecting the puck in front of goal. Nekolenko’s brace extended his scoring streak to four games. Chelyabinsk pulled one back in the third, capitalizing on a power play, but Anton Krasotkin and the visitors’ defense held firm to protect the lead. Sibir trailed 30-33 in shots on target and spent only 7:51 in attack compared to Traktor’s 14:36, but the Novosibirsk side blocked 29 shots-almost double their opponent’s tally. It was a hard-fought win, but these are the kinds of games that can help Sibir claw their way out of a prolonged slump.
Match Results: Sibir Novosibirsk
Prediction for the 1st period
Sibir rarely fall behind in the opening twenty minutes. In 11 of their last 12 games, they have avoided defeat in the first period, and within the KHL, that run stands at 10 out of 11 matches. The trend holds on the road as well-nine positive results in their last ten away fixtures. That’s why Sibir not to lose the first period looks like an intriguing pick here, despite their September setback against Barys.
Prediction on the Outcome
Sibir’s recent form has been far from impressive, but heavy defeats have become a rarity for them. The Novosibirsk side have covered a +2.5-goal spread in eight straight games, seven of which came in the KHL. Away from home, they are on a similar run, with five consecutive matches staying within that margin. Even considering Barys’ attacking prowess, a Sibir win with a +2.5-goal handicap is statistically justified.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
This season’s Barys side under Mikhail Kravets is a far cry from last year’s team, especially in their approach to offense. The Astana club are no longer content with rare scoring chances-they consistently find ways to put up three or four goals a night. In seven of their last eight games, Barys have scored more than two goals, and across this KHL campaign, they’ve hit that mark in six out of seven outings. Over their past five matches, Barys average 3.6 goals per game. Even against Avangard, who outshot them by a wide margin, the hosts still managed to find the net five times.
Sibir’s win over Traktor offered a glimmer of hope, but one positive result doesn’t erase their earlier struggles. Back in September, Barys put seven past the Novosibirsk side, and they now come into this clash riding a three-game winning streak. Of course, another blowout is unlikely-especially since the visitors rarely suffer heavy defeats these days. But for this particular bet, that’s not necessary. Given Barys’ current scoring form, my pick is Barys over 2.5 team goals.
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Betting Tips: Barys Astana - Sibir Novosibirsk
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