Mavericks vs Spurs Prediction 25 October 2026
🏀 Sunday’s NBA regular season action features another Texas derby as the Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have struggled out of the gate, combining for just one win across four games. While this kind of start is nothing new for Dallas, it’s a surprising stumble for the reigning league champions, who certainly expected more. Spurs fans will be hoping for a strong response from their side.
Head-to-Head
📊Last season, these teams clashed four times, with San Antonio coming out on top in every encounter. Their most recent meeting took place in April, when Wembanyama and company cruised past Dallas with a commanding 139-120 victory.
Head-to-head statistics Mavericks - Spurs
Dallas: Can They Put Up a Fight Without Flagg?
Dallas are building their season around Irving and young star Flagg. In their recent win over Indiana (121-105), Kyrie was outstanding, dropping 24 points, but Flagg suffered a shoulder injury and will miss the clash with the Spurs. That’s a major blow to their depth. Still, the Mavericks have Gafford anchoring the paint, with Christie and Washington working the perimeter. Even so, without Flagg, the franchise becomes heavily reliant on Irving’s individual brilliance.
On top of that, the Mavericks have allowed an average of 55.0 points in the paint over their last two regular season games - ranking just 24th in the league. That’s a glaring structural weakness against Wembanyama. Plus, without Cooper, they’ll struggle to control the boards and transition game. Realistically, Dallas will be banking on home-court advantage and a bit of luck.
Match Results: Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio: Have the losses finally come to an end?
San Antonio have dropped both of their opening games - first falling at home to Oklahoma City (104-116), then losing on the road to Houston (110-114). Against the Rockets, last season’s runners-up came close to victory but faltered in the clutch. Still, fans remain optimistic, especially with Wemby already making a statement performance with 25 points and 13 rebounds. Despite the slow start, the Spurs are widely regarded as one of the most talented teams in the West, and bookmakers continue to back them.
Johnson’s squad are currently averaging just 104.0 points per game (24th in the league), but facing Dallas without Lively and Aldama should give Wembanyama and company more room to operate in the paint. There’s also reason to expect a strong showing from Fox, whose perimeter shooting could provide a much-needed spark. The Spurs are fired up and eager to respond, so their opponents could be in for a tough night.
Match Results: San Antonio Spurs
Latest news
Dallas Mavericks
⛔ Alongside Flagg, Dallas will be without Aldama, Bieberovich, Martin, Lively, and Howard.
📋 Projected starting lineup: Irving, Washington, Christie, Marshall, Gafford.
San Antonio Spurs
⛔ Harris and Quintens remain sidelined for the Spurs.
📋 Projected starting lineup: Fox, Wembanyama, Castle, Harper, Vassell.
Outcome Prediction
Looking at the last 10 head-to-head clashes between these sides, both teams have claimed five wins apiece. Dallas have yet to secure a home victory in this stretch, while San Antonio have managed to notch one road win. An interesting pattern emerges: in 16 of the past 18 NBA meetings on their own court, Dallas have not lost by more than a 12-point margin. With that in mind, backing the home side with a +12.5 handicap at odds of 1.83 looks like a solid play.
Total Points Prediction
In head-to-head matchups, the hosts average 106.3 points per game, while the visitors post 109.3. Looking at the last ten games, Dallas average 106.1 points overall (just 98.7 at home), with San Antonio putting up 105.6 (and 99 on the road). The trends highlight Dallas Mavericks’ consistent scoring: they have surpassed the 109.5-point mark in seventeen of their last eighteen meetings with this opponent. Additionally, the Mavericks have gone over 109.5 points in seven of their previous eight outings. Given these numbers, backing Dallas individual total over 109.5 at odds of 1.90 looks like a well-founded prediction.
Top Scorers
The French sensation remains the cornerstone of the Spurs’ offense. Victor Wembanyama continues to post impressive numbers, routinely notching double-doubles thanks to his long-range shooting, drives to the basket, and dominance on the boards. Given that Dallas struggle to contain agile, long-limbed players, San Antonio’s leader is set to get plenty of looks. We’re backing Wembanyama’s individual points total over 26.5 at odds of 1.83*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across bookmakers.
⭐ Editors' Prediction
San Antonio are currently averaging just 104 points per game and aren't pushing the pace. Dallas, missing Flagg and lacking depth, are also unlikely to ramp up the tempo. It's worth noting that both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Key trends point to the under: the total has gone under 228.5 in 13 of the Spurs’ last 14 games, and the visitors have topped 123.5 points only once in their past 19 outings. It’s reasonable to expect the favorites to contain Dallas defensively and secure a comfortable win in a low-scoring contest. Our pick: under 234.5 points.
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Betting Tips: Dallas Mavericks - San Antonio Spurs
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