Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction 11 April 2026

The home team is facing some roster challenges, most notably the absence of Victor Wembanyama. However, even without the Frenchman, they managed to deliver a solid performance against Portland (112-101). De'Aaron Fox stepped up as a leader, and it's reasonable to expect that he will effectively drive possessions against Dallas. Moreover, in a game with little at stake, players will primarily aim to maintain their offensive rhythm. While the Spurs are capable defensively, there's little incentive to focus on that aspect right now.

The home court advantage might allow even the secondary options to shine, as they'll likely see plenty of playing time. On average, the team scores 118.3 points per game, and they could aim for 120+ given the Mavericks' defensive struggles. However, in an open style of play, they might also encounter challenges on their own end, with the Spurs conceding an average of 111.8 points per game.

Dallas confidently hold onto the 13th spot in the Western Conference standings. There's no room to drop further. However, to maintain their position and increase their chances for the top draft pick, they need to lose-and by a significant margin, as point differential can also play a role. Historically, the visitors play at a fast pace, leading to shootouts. Naturally, in their current form, they struggle to convert effectively. This results in setbacks like those against Orlando (127-138) or even Milwaukee (99-123).

Nevertheless, the team occasionally succeeds on the offensive end when least expected. A case in point is their recent victory over the Lakers with a score of 134-128. The visitors understand there's no pressure weighing them down. Flagg exhibits tremendous motivation. Thompson, in certain games, can deliver an impressive three-point shot. Overall, the team surprisingly fields a full roster. This could turn into a positive for their offense. Combined with their pace, they could realistically approach an average of 114.4 points scored.