Mercury vs Aces Prediction 25 September 2026
π The Phoenix Mercury are set to host the Las Vegas Aces in this WNBA regular season clash. This matchup stands out due to the stark contrast in the teamsβ positions: the hosts sit near the bottom of the Western Conference and will be playing primarily to entertain their fans in their final regular-season outing. Meanwhile, the visitors have long since shifted their focus to the playoffs, where they will look to defend their championship crown. Despite this, bookmakers still see the Aces as clear favorites heading into this contest.
Head-to-Head
π These sides have met 65 times in official competition. The hosts have claimed 30 wins, while the visitors have come out on top 35 times. Their most recent head-to-head took place on 11 July 2026 in Las Vegas, where the home team cruised to a commanding 106-58 victory.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - Aces
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix Mercury have struggled for form throughout the season, picking up just 4 wins and 6 losses in their last 10 outings. Still, that stretch includes some impressive victories at home. On average, Mercury are scoring 84.9 points per game while conceding 87, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency to get involved in high-scoring, end-to-end contests. Recently, the franchise have shown slight improvement: their offensive output has climbed to 86.4 points per game over the latest fixtures, but defensively they remain leaky, allowing an average of 87.6 points per game.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Las Vegas Aces (W) Team Overview
Las Vegas head into this matchup in outstanding form, having won all five of their most recent games and riding an eight-win streak over their last ten outings. During this stretch, the Aces have been prolific offensively - averaging 92.1 points per game - while maintaining a solid defensive record, conceding just 80.3 points per contest. These numbers reinforce their reputation as one of the tournamentβs most well-balanced teams. Throughout the season, the reigning league champions have kept up a high tempo, consistently scoring over 90 points and seldom allowing opponents to fully unleash their offensive potential. Itβs clear the club are hitting peak form just in time for the knockout stage.
Match Results: Las Vegas Aces (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 65;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 22; for the visitors on the road - 8;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 43.45;
- Today's home team averages 22.49, while the visitors average 20.95.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs Las Vegas Aces (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 22 vs 22;
- Number of wins: 9 (40.91%) vs 12 (54.55%);
- Number of losses: 11 (50%) vs 9 (40.91%);
- Number of draws: 2 (9.09%) vs 1 (4.55%).
- Average points scored: 21.77 vs 23.55;
- Average points conceded: 22.5 vs 21.95.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 3 vs 9;
- Number of losses: 6 vs 1;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 42.9 (scored - 20.6, conceded - 22.3) vs 43.3 (scored - 24.6, conceded - 18.7).
- Phoenix Mercury (W) scored over 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in 6 of last 7 games against Las Vegas Aces (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 83.2, for the away team - 84.26;
- average total points in H2H matches - 167.46.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Las Vegas Aces (W)
- average total in the tournament: 172.04 vs 177.26;
- average total points scored: 84.98 vs 91.04;
- average total points conceded: 87.07 vs 86.22;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 42.89 vs 46.72;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 42 vs 43.83;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 85.86;
- Las Vegas Aces (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 92.23;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 86.4 (home - 86.5) vs 92.1 (away - 101).
- Under 178.5 points scored in 12 of last 13 Phoenix Mercury (W) games against Las Vegas Aces (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 65;
- number of wins for the home team - 30, for the away team - 35.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Las Vegas Aces (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 43 vs 43;
- number of wins: 18 (40%) vs 31 (67.39%);
- number of losses: 27 (60%) vs 15 (32.61%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 8;
- number of away wins for the away team: 15.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 4 vs 8;
- number of losses: 6 vs 2;
- number of home wins for the home team: 2;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Phoenix Mercury (W) won with a +11.5 points handicap in last 5 home games against Las Vegas Aces (W) (WNBA).
β Editorial Prediction
The visitors are likely to dictate the tempo, boasting a more aggressive offense and a superior defense compared to the home side. Phoenix, despite the backing of their home crowd, have consistently struggled against top-tier opponents - a trend reflected in their recent home losses. Itβs hard to imagine that the desire to put on a show before the break will be enough to trouble one of the leagueβs strongest teams. We recommend backing Las Vegas to win with a -7.5 handicap.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - Las Vegas Aces (W)
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