Aces vs Mercury Prediction 11 July 2026
π The WNBA regular season features a matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury. The hosts remain atop both the Western Conference and the overall league standings, delivering consistently strong performances throughout the campaign. Meanwhile, the visitors sit near the bottom of the same conference and have yet to mount a serious challenge for a playoff spot. For the Aces, this game offers a chance to further cement their status among the leagueβs elite, while the Mercury are hoping to snap a lengthy losing streak against top-tier opposition.
Head-to-Head
πStatistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Las Vegas Aces (W) and Phoenix Mercury (W):
- played 64 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 34 for today's home team and 30 for the guests;
- the home team averages 83.92 points per match, the guests - 83.59;
- average total match points - 167.52.
The last confrontation took place on 18 June 2026 at the venue of Phoenix Mercury (W) and ended with a score of 76:86.
Head-to-head statistics Aces - Mercury
Las Vegas Aces (W) Team Overview
Las Vegas have taken four wins from their last five outings, dropping just one game while most recently edging out Portland 88-80. Over their last ten fixtures, the Aces have recorded six victories against four defeats - a run that can be described as solid, if not spectacular. They are averaging 89.6 points per game on the season, underlining their offensive firepower, although that figure has dipped slightly to 86.5 points across their last ten contests.
Defensively, the Aces are conceding an average of 86.6 points per game this year, with a near-identical mark of 86.2 allowed over their recent ten-game stretch - a sign that their defense occasionally struggles to contain high-tempo opponents. While Las Vegas continue to play at a brisk pace, there are indications that the team is striving for a more balanced approach between offense and defense.
Match Results: Las Vegas Aces (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix head into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak, although they dropped their last two outings, making it four wins and six losses in their previous ten contests, a stretch that highlights the franchiseβs inconsistency over the long haul. During this span, the Mercury have averaged 86.3 points per game while allowing opponents 86.6 points on average, reflecting a balanced yet unspectacular defensive effort.
These figures closely mirror their season-long stats: the team puts up 84.7 points and concedes 85.4 per game. Their road performances suggest a cautious approach that keeps them competitive even against stronger opposition. However, their last such road clash against the Indiana Fever ended in a narrow and disappointing defeat (89-92).
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 64;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 12; for the visitors on the road - 18;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 43.53;
- Today's home team averages 20.83, while the visitors average 22.7.
First Quarter Stats: Las Vegas Aces (W) (home) vs Phoenix Mercury (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 11 vs 12;
- Number of wins: 6 (54.55%) vs 6 (50%);
- Number of losses: 4 (36.36%) vs 6 (50%);
- Number of draws: 1 (9.09%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 24.55 vs 21.08;
- Average points conceded: 22.09 vs 19.33.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 3;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 6;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 1;
- Average first quarter total: 46.1 (scored - 23.3, conceded - 22.8) vs 46.6 (scored - 23.2, conceded - 23.4).
- Las Vegas Aces (W) scored under 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in 6 of last 7 home games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 64;
- number of wins for the home team - 34, for the away team - 30.
Statistics: Las Vegas Aces (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 22 vs 23;
- number of wins: 17 (68%) vs 10 (40%);
- number of losses: 8 (32%) vs 15 (60%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 7;
- number of away wins for the away team: 5.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 6 vs 4;
- number of losses: 4 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 3;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Phoenix Mercury (W) won with a +13.5 points handicap in 7 of last 8 away games against Las Vegas Aces (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 83.92, for the away team - 83.59;
- average total points in H2H matches - 167.52.
Statistics: Las Vegas Aces (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- average total in the tournament: 176.28 vs 170.16;
- average total points scored: 89.6 vs 84.72;
- average total points conceded: 86.68 vs 85.44;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 46.28 vs 43.84;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 42.84 vs 40.72;
- Las Vegas Aces (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 88.45;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 81.5;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 86.5 (home - 86.6) vs 86.3 (away - 86.75).
- Under 175.5 points scored in last 6 Las Vegas Aces (W) home games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
β Editor's Pick
Both teams play at a similar pace and their scoring averages hover just below the league standard. Neither side stands out for rock-solid defense or explosive offensive firepower, and thatβs reflected in the visitorsβ frequent low-scoring results on the road - nine of their last ten away games have seen totals under 169.5 points. Current form suggests thereβs no clear trend toward shootouts, as defense often prevails over offense for both clubs, even when the tempo picks up. With that in mind, a bet on under 173.5 total points looks like a logical call.
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Betting Tips: Las Vegas Aces (W) - Phoenix Mercury (W)
in 8 of last 9 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).in 6 of last 7 away games (WNBA).in 5 of last 6 home games (WNBA).in 7 of last 8 Las Vegas Aces (W) games (WNBA).in last 5 Las Vegas Aces (W) home games (WNBA).in 10 of last 11 Phoenix Mercury (W) away games (WNBA).
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