Oklahoma vs Cleveland Prediction 5 November 2026
🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers meet in an NBA regular-season game just two days after their last encounter, this time at a different venue. Led by Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder pulled off a surprise road win over the Cavaliers. Now the hosts will look to build on that result at home, while the visitors will be out for revenge against opponents dealing with significant injury concerns.
Head-to-Head
📊 Oklahoma City Thunder have had the upper hand in the last five head-to-head meetings, winning four of them. Their most recent matchup was on November 3, when the Thunder won 117-112 on the road.
Head-to-head statistics Oklahoma - Cleveland
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai is playing himself into the ground
Oklahoma City Thunder head into this game in the grip of an injury crisis. They recently lost two straight games by 20 points or more, and their injury list looks more formidable than some teams’ starting fives. Those defeats exposed the central problem: without their key players, the Thunder have no margin for error on offense, leaving Shai to carry the load.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was sensational against Cleveland Cavaliers last Tuesday, scoring 43 points to lead the Thunder to victory. But the Canadian superstar played 38 minutes and took 35 shots from the field. With workloads like that, the risk of injury will only rise.
Match Results: Oklahoma City Thunder
Cleveland Cavaliers Team Overview
The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this game with a mixed 4-3 record. Before losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Kenny Atkinson’s side blew out Milwaukee 136-111, with big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley combining for 52 points. They might have kept that run going against Oklahoma City, but a shaky defence - allowing 116 points per game and ranking 20th - had no answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Even so, Mobley and Allen give the Cavaliers a clear physical advantage that the Thunder are currently ill-equipped to counter. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are the players who could help contain the pair, but both are unavailable. That gives Atkinson’s team a realistic chance to avenge their recent defeat, especially with no guarantee that Shai will produce another masterclass.
Match Results: Cleveland Cavaliers
Latest news
Oklahoma City Thunder
⛔ The Oklahoma City Thunder are still without six players: Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Caruso, Wallace, Topić and Sorber.
📋 Projected lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams.
Cleveland Cavaliers
⛔ Watson, Tyson and Tomlin remain sidelined for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
📋 Projected starting five: Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Thomas.
First-Quarter Prediction
The first quarter has produced fewer than 56.5 points in eight of Cleveland Cavaliers’ last nine road games. At home, Oklahoma City Thunder have averaged 26.2 first-quarter points while allowing 26.7. Our pick is under 56.5 points in the first quarter at odds of 1.90.
Game prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers have covered the +5.5 spread in six straight NBA games. Oklahoma City Thunder have also covered the +2.5 spread in five consecutive home games, but both trends can hold: both bets could win in the same game. Our pick is Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5 at odds of 1.58.
Total points prediction
Under 230.5 points has landed in 12 of Cleveland Cavaliers’ last 14 road games. However, each of their last six games has gone over 224.5, so a particularly low-scoring contest looks unlikely. Our pick is under 230.5 points at odds of 1.70.
A Solid Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers have covered a +5.5 spread in six straight NBA games. A +7.5 spread gives them another two points of breathing room if they lose. Our pick is Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 at odds of 1.44.
Top scorers
With so many teammates sidelined, Shai has had to shoulder a huge workload. He scored 43 points against the Cavaliers in their last meeting, and he has traditionally been even more comfortable at home. Even if Cleveland tighten their defence on him, Gilgeous-Alexander should clear 33 points on sheer shot volume. We’re backing Gilgeous-Alexander to score over 33.5 points at odds of 1.73*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor’s prediction
Despite losing their last head-to-head meeting with Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers are the stronger side right now. The Cavaliers have a healthy frontcourt and greater depth. Mobley and Allen had plenty of trouble against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Cleveland’s advantage on the boards and in the paint is too significant to ignore. If Cleveland adjust their defence against Shai and Harden and Mitchell score more efficiently, the visitors should cover. We’re backing Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5.
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Betting Tips: Oklahoma City Thunder - Cleveland Cavaliers
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