Chicago Sky (W) vs Mercury Prediction 4 August 2026
π In this WNBA regular season game, the Chicago Sky play the Phoenix Mercury. Both teams possess the defensive tools to keep things tight at the back. Itβs unlikely this contest will be played at a high tempo. Expect fewer shot attempts, which could lead to a dip in overall scoring.
Head-to-Head
π The last time these two sides met was in early July, when Chicago secured a 77-66 win on the road. However, looking at their last five head-to-head clashes, Phoenix hold a clear advantage with four wins to one.
Head-to-head statistics Chicago Sky (W) - Mercury
Chicago Sky (W) Team Overview
The Chicago womenβs basketball team havenβt exactly set the league alight this season, winning just 35.5% of their games - a rather modest record. However, they have shown some signs of life recently, picking up three wins in their last five outings. On several occasions, their defense has been outstanding, particularly in the impressive victories over the Los Angeles Sparks (96-82) and Las Vegas (84-83). Back on their home court, Chicago are likely to maintain a solid defensive structure on a more consistent basis. Thereβs also a chance the pace could slow down, as playing in front of their own fans allows them to be more efficient with their shot selection - including from long range. On average, Chicago are putting up 87.8 points per game while conceding 89.9.
Match Results: Chicago Sky (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix have posted a slightly better record this season, winning close to 41% of their games. Their recent form has also been positive, with three victories in their last five outings. More often than not, the team finds success when they manage to organize their defense effectively. A prime example of this came in their clash against Connecticut, where a disciplined defensive effort secured them a 72-63 win. When the Mercury are locked in on defense, theyβre capable of causing problems even for top-tier opponents - like they did against New York, pushing them all the way in a narrow 92-94 defeat. In this upcoming game, the pace could slow down, influenced both by Phoenix playing on the road and by the particular style of their opponents.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 56;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 14; for the visitors on the road - 11;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 41.07;
- Today's home team averages 20.34, while the visitors average 20.73.
First Quarter Stats: Chicago Sky (W) (home) vs Phoenix Mercury (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 15 vs 15;
- Number of wins: 5 (33.33%) vs 8 (53.33%);
- Number of losses: 9 (60%) vs 7 (46.67%);
- Number of draws: 1 (6.67%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 21.27 vs 20.53;
- Average points conceded: 22 vs 20.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 5;
- Number of losses: 6 vs 5;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 45.1 (scored - 22.1, conceded - 23) vs 42.2 (scored - 20, conceded - 22.2).
- Under 47.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 5 Phoenix Mercury (W) games (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 83.45, for the away team - 83.93;
- average total points in H2H matches - 167.38.
Statistics: Chicago Sky (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- average total in the tournament: 177.81 vs 170.94;
- average total points scored: 87.84 vs 84.38;
- average total points conceded: 89.97 vs 86.56;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 41 vs 42.72;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 46.45 vs 41.53;
- Chicago Sky (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 90.13;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 81.47;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 89.9 (home - 92.25) vs 82.7 (away - 81.33).
- Chicago Sky (W) have scored under 89.5 points in 9 of last 10 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 56;
- number of wins for the home team - 23, for the away team - 33.
Statistics: Chicago Sky (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 29 vs 30;
- number of wins: 11 (35.48%) vs 13 (40.63%);
- number of losses: 20 (64.52%) vs 19 (59.38%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 7;
- number of away wins for the away team: 6.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 5 vs 4;
- number of losses: 5 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 4;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
- Chicago Sky (W) have lost in 9 of last 10 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Editor's Pick
Chicago are likely to opt for a pragmatic approach, relying on their efficiency to control the game and dictate the outcome. The Sky have the resources to get the job done without taking unnecessary risks. Phoenix, meanwhile, know exactly where their strengths and weaknesses lie - and playing on the road, under pressure from the home crowd, they canβt count on elite shooting percentages. Expect both teams to focus more on defense than offense in this matchup. Thatβs why our editorial team sees value in backing under 180.5 points.
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Betting Tips: Chicago Sky (W) - Phoenix Mercury (W)
in 9 of last 10 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
in 7 of last 8 home games (WNBA).in 7 of last 8 home games (WNBA).in 14 of last 16 away games against Chicago Sky (W) (WNBA).in 12 of last 14 away games (WNBA).
Other predictions
