Fukuoka Softbank vs Yokohama Baystars Prediction 27 October 2026
📡 Fukuoka return home with a 2-0 lead in the Japan Series, but both wins over DeNA came only after extra innings-3-1 and 4-3. In the second game, the visitors let their lead slip away in the ninth inning, and now they turn to starter Katsuki Azuma, one of the most consistent pitchers in the Central League. The prediction for Game 3 largely hinges on the head-to-head between two left-handers, each of whom finished the regular season with 12 wins.
Fukuoka have won seven of their last ten games, but DeNA hold the edge in total runs scored.
📊 Fukuoka have claimed victory in seven of the last ten head-to-head clashes, while DeNA have come out on top three times. Interestingly, despite trailing in wins, DeNA lead in total runs scored, 39 to 34, with the average combined score sitting at 7.3 runs per game. Five of these encounters have been decided by just a single run, with DeNA either edging out a win or falling narrowly short. Fukuoka took the last two meetings, 3-1 and 4-3. In the 2024 Japan Series, Fukuoka started strong with back-to-back wins, but DeNA responded by rattling off four consecutive victories.
Head-to-head statistics Fukuoka Softbank - Yokohama Baystars
Two extra-inning victories have brought Fukuoka closer to the championship.
Fukuoka wrapped up the regular season with a 91-49-3 record, comfortably topping the Pacific League standings. The team racked up 707 runs, smashed 162 home runs, and posted a collective .261 batting average. Their team ERA of 2.88 also ranked among the best in NPB. On home turf, Fukuoka claimed 49 wins against just 23 losses. In the current finals, the hosts have been edging ahead thanks to clutch performances late in games: in Game 1, the decisive runs came in the 11th inning, while in Game 2, Hotaka Yamakawa tied it up with a ninth-inning homer before Tomohito Kawamura sealed the win in the tenth. Kensuke Kondo continues his impressive run at the plate, boasting a .345 batting average at home this season.
Match Results: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
Azuma, with 22 quality starts to his name, has a real chance to shift the momentum in the Japan Series.
DeNA finished third in the Central League with a 71-69-3 record, tallying 557 runs and blasting 125 home runs while hitting for a .246 average. The team posted a collective ERA of 3.27. Heading into the Japan Series, the club rode a six-game playoff winning streak, including four victories over Hanshin. In Game 1 of the final, Yugo Maki tied the game with a solo homer in the eighth inning, and in Game 2, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo put DeNA ahead with a three-run shot. However, the bullpen couldn't hold on to the lead. Despite two defeats, DeNA’s offense demonstrated their ability to threaten even Fukuoka’s elite pitchers. In the most recent matchup, the visitors racked up 10 hits but failed to capitalize on all their opportunities.
Match Results: Yokohama Dena Baystars
⚾ Starting Pitchers
Haru Matsumoto, a left-hander for Fukuoka, boasts a 2.66 ERA across 22 appearances, all as a starter, with a 12-3 record. Over 125.1 innings, he’s allowed 103 hits and 38 runs (37 earned), striking out 126 while issuing 40 walks for a WHIP of 1.14. Matsumoto has recorded 11 quality starts but is yet to complete a game or register a shutout. In his most recent outing on October 3 against Lotte, he pitched eight strong innings, surrendering just one run on five hits with six strikeouts. Since August, Matsumoto has maintained a sub-2.00 ERA each month, though he hasn’t featured in the Climax Series.
Katsuki Azuma, the lefty ace for DeNA, enters with a 2.40 ERA over 25 starts, posting a 12-6 record. He’s logged 161.1 innings, giving up 136 hits and 50 runs (43 earned), tallying 120 strikeouts against just 28 walks for a WHIP of 1.02. Azuma has delivered an impressive 22 quality starts, including one complete game, and has yet to record a shutout. His quality start rate stands at 88%, while his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 4.29. Azuma clearly outshines his counterpart in terms of consistency and endurance, rarely allowing free passes over extended outings.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Fukuoka have opened the series with back-to-back wins and enjoy home-field advantage, but the nature of those victories hardly suggests a clear gap between them and DeNA. The first game was deadlocked until the 11th inning, while in the second, the visitors led 3-2 heading into the ninth. Now, the starting pitching matchup gives DeNA some extra upside. Azuma holds the edge over Matsumoto in ERA, WHIP, and quality starts, with an impressive 22 quality outings in 25 appearances-proof that he consistently limits opposing offenses. Matsumoto finished the regular season in strong form as well, but he hasn’t pitched since October 3, adding an element of uncertainty to his first postseason start this year. Fukuoka lead the last ten head-to-head clashes in terms of wins, but DeNA have outscored them overall, 39-34. Another factor: in the 2024 finals, after dropping two games to Fukuoka, it was Azuma who turned the tide for DeNA with a seven-inning, one-run gem in Game 3. This current DeNA squad are certainly capable of pushing for a win if their ace lefty delivers six or seven solid innings. With the chosen spread, even a narrow defeat keeps the bet alive-so another tense finish doesn’t necessarily mean a losing ticket. Our pick: DeNA with a +1.5 run handicap.
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Betting Tips: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - Yokohama Dena Baystars
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