Tsitsipas vs Fils Prediction 31 August 2026
🔊 Arthur Fils arrives at the US Open as the Cincinnati Masters champion. Drawing Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round of a Major is never straightforward, but the Greek - a former world No. 3 - is well past his peak, despite picking up an ATP title earlier this summer, and has yet to beat Fils in any of their previous meetings. The question is whether the betting favourite can extend his winning run on hard courts and in the head-to-head against Tsitsipas.
Head-to-Head
📊 Arthur Fils has won all five of his head-to-head meetings with Stefanos Tsitsipas, including a dominant hard-court victory at the Miami Open just over five months ago - 6-0, 6-1.
Head-to-head statistics Tsitsipas - Fils
Stefanos Tsitsipas Player Overview
Stefanos Tsitsipas arrives at the US Open in mixed form, having won five of his last ten matches. He did end a trophy drought of nearly a year and a half this summer, claiming the ATP 250 title in Gstaad, though that came on clay. His best result on hard courts this season has been a second-round appearance at the Montreal Masters, reached through qualifying - he also made the second round in Cincinnati, though there he entered in the main draw. On serve, Tsitsipas is holding around 78% of his service games, which is 2-3% below the tour average. His return game has also been struggling of late: he is converting just 28% of his break points. His career-best at the US Open is the third round, a mark he reached twice, in 2020 and 2021.
Match Results: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Arthur Fils Player Overview
Arthur Fils is in excellent form - nine wins from his last ten matches, including a current six-match winning streak that delivered him the Cincinnati Masters title. Before that, he reached the quarter-finals at the other North American Masters in Montreal. His US Open record is limited: he has entered twice, missing last year's edition, and went out in the second round on both previous appearances. Fils's physical presence makes him a dominant server - he holds in 79% of his service games - and despite his natural athleticism, his approach to serving is measured, as reflected in a first-serve percentage of 65%.
Match Results: Arthur Fils
Key factors
- Both players have comparable serving stats, though the Frenchman is more reliable on first serve.
- Fils rarely wins matches in straight sets, but four of his five wins over Tsitsipas have come in two sets, including one retirement.
- The only completed match in which the Greek managed to take a set was played on clay.
Expected scenario
Arthur Fils goes into this match as the favourite, backed by his current form and head-to-head record. Notably, all their hard-court meetings have ended in straight-sets wins for the Frenchman. His serving numbers may not be the most impressive, but the Greek's tendency to take excessive risks means his stats fall short of his opponent's. Consistency has also been a serious problem for him on hard courts this season. Making life difficult for Fils purely through returning will be no easy task either - the Frenchman carries qualities developed on clay, where the majority of his career matches have been played.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Tsitsipas's current form gives little reason to expect him to trouble the French favourite here, particularly at a Major where the two have never met before. The numbers speak for themselves: since Montreal, Arthur Fils has dropped just four sets in total, including his only defeat - a quarter-final loss in Montreal. After winning the title in Cincinnati, he had a full week's rest, while Tsitsipas chose to play the ATP 250 in Winston-Salem on top of everything else. Add four straight hard-court wins in their head-to-head, and the case for Fils - Games Handicap -4.5 looks compelling.
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Betting Tips: Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Fils
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