Safiullin vs Alcaraz Prediction 31 August 2026
🔊 Carlos Alcaraz has barely returned from four months away from the tour and is already heading the US Open outright market. That should come as no surprise, even after such a lengthy absence - he arrives as the defending champion and a two-time title holder at Flushing Meadows. His draw is far from straightforward, with Novak Djokovic in the same half and top-20 opponents potentially appearing as early as the fourth round. For now, though, there are more immediate concerns: his opening match is against Roman Safiullin, who arrives at this Grand Slam on a two-match losing streak.
Head-to-Head
📊 Head-to-head, the pair are level at one win apiece. Notably, in their only hard-court meeting in 2023, Roman Safiullin came out on top, winning 6-3, 6-4.
Head-to-head statistics Safiullin - Alcaraz
Roman Safiullin Player Overview
Roman Safiullin turned heads earlier this year by reaching the Wimbledon round of 16 after coming through qualifying. On the current hard-court swing, though, his results have settled back to what you'd expect from a player ranked in the 50s: a 2-2 record across a Challenger in Cancun and the ATP 250 in Winston-Salem. His hold rate stands at 78%, which is 2-3% below the tour average. The numbers might be higher were it not for his tendency to play aggressively at times - he looks to attack not only on serve and in his own service games, but on return as well, consistently targeting the baseline.
Match Results: Roman Safiullin
Carlos Alcaraz Player Overview
Carlos Alcaraz dropped to third in the world rankings during a four-month absence with a wrist injury on his playing arm, and arrives at the US Open as the second seed. His draw looks reasonably kind on paper, though a potential fourth-round meeting with Alexander Bublik or Tommy Paul - both inside or around the top 20 - could make things interesting. As for match sharpness, his only competitive outing was the mixed doubles at this same Slam, partnering Serena Williams; the pair went out in the first round, with Alcaraz notably serving a double fault - an uncharacteristic lapse for a player whose first-serve percentage averaged 61% before his injury layoff.
Match Results: Carlos Alcaraz
Key factors
- Safioullín has beaten Alcaraz on hard courts before.
- Safioullín has won 53% of games across his last ten matches.
- Alcaraz's only hard-court action before the US Open was a mixed doubles match alongside Serena Williams.
Expected scenario
Alcaraz is the clear favourite here, though Safiullin has a reasonable chance of holding serve. The Russian is smart enough to work out that loading heavy topspin to Alcaraz's forehand on the baseline could be a productive tactic. There is also some uncertainty around the condition of Carlos's wrist, which Safiullin will need to exploit. Both players are aggressive by nature, and that could work in the underdog's favour - at least in the early stages, while the world No. 3 finds his feet on court after his return to the tour.
Total Games Prediction
Safuillin's recent results show he regularly clears his individual games total even against higher-ranked opponents, something that was particularly evident at Wimbledon. His hard-court form this season has been poor, but his Spanish opponent hasn't played a match in four months - so there's no recent form to speak of on either side.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This first-round US Open match is one of the rare occasions where a large ranking and class gap still leaves room to look at the favourite's vulnerabilities. The case for the Russian underdog is straightforward: Alcaraz has had an extended spell away from the tour, and his appearance at the mixed doubles here was hardly the most convincing return to action.
It's possible Alcaraz is playing to the crowd and keeping his opponents guessing when he admits to nerves after coming back. But given how long he's been away, even those comments deserve to be taken at face value. Safiullin also has a positive record against the Spaniard on hard courts. Our pick: Safiullin - Player Total Games Over 14.5.
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Betting Tips: Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz
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