Auger Aliassime vs Hijikata Prediction 31 August 2026
🔊 Felix Auger-Aliassime and Rinky Hijikata open their US Open campaigns in a match where the real question isn't who wins, but how long the underdog can stay competitive. The Australian has beaten top-20 opponents this season, but his last warm-up before the tournament ended with two sets lost 1-6. Can he raise his level again when every lapse in concentration carries a higher price?
Head-to-Head
📊 Auger-Aliassime and Hijikata have never met before.
Felix Auger Aliassime Player Overview
Over a substantial run of 53 matches on hard courts, Auger-Aliassime has won 39. He has held serve in 88% of his service games and won 70% of points on serve. Aces have accounted for 14% of his service points, which limits the time opponents have to build pressure.
In early August he withdrew from his match in Montreal, but then played three times in Cincinnati. He beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 7-5 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7-5, 6-1 before losing to Frances Tiafoe 3-6, 4-6. All three opponents were ranked inside the top 60 at the time, and Auger-Aliassime had won four consecutive sets before facing Tiafoe.
Match Results: Felix Auger Aliassime
Rinky Hijikata Player Overview
Over his most recent extended stretch on hard courts, Hijikata won 33 of 53 matches. The Australian held serve in 78% of his service games and broke in 27% of return games. His results lean on his work on return, though his serve offers less of a cushion: he hits aces on 6% of points and wins 62% of service points overall. Against a player with a powerful first serve, there is less room to compensate on return.
In Cincinnati, Rinky beat Gaël Monfils (2-6, 7-6, 6-3) and Luciano Darderi (6-4, 6-2) before losing to Jakub Menšík (3-6, 4-6). In Winston-Salem he defeated Darwin Blanch (6-4, 7-6) and Raphaël Collignon (3-6, 7-6, 7-6), then took just two games off Benjamin Bonzi (1-6, 1-6) in the next round. Three of the four sets Hijikata won at that last tournament went to a tie-break, while his only defeat was a heavy one.
Match Results: Rinky Hijikata
Key factors
- Auger-Aliassime has won 39 of 53 matches on hard courts over a significant recent stretch.
- Auger-Aliassime held serve in 88% of his service games; Hijikata held 78%.
- Auger-Aliassime's ace rate was 14%, compared to 6% for the Australian.
- Hijikata ended his Winston-Salem campaign with a 1-6, 1-6 loss to Bonzi.
- The two players have never met before.
Expected scenario
Auger-Aliassime will look to keep rallies short and win points quickly off his serve. Hijikata is a capable returner against lower-powered opponents, but here he first needs to find a way to return the favourite's serve consistently, and then hold his own service games.
Losing several games in a row is particularly dangerous for the Australian. In a five-set match, an early break doesn't decide things outright, but it forces longer spells of high-risk tennis. If Felix holds serve at his usual level, Hijikata will need to be close to error-free in his own service games to push sets into tie-breaks.
Match Result Prediction
Auger-Aliassime is a clear and deserved favourite. His serving advantage and the higher calibre of recent opponents he has faced leave Hijikata little room for an upset. That said, a straightforward win for the Canadian is priced too low to be worth backing, and a correct score of 3-0 leaves no margin for even one good set from the underdog.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The under doesn't require Auger-Aliassime to win in straight sets. A 3-0 with one competitive set fits comfortably within the total, and certain 3-1 outcomes also come in under the line if the favourite takes the remaining sets with a clear margin. That flexibility makes the total more reliable than backing an exact scoreline.
Hijikata can make individual sets competitive, but at his most recent tournament three of his four sets won came in tie-breaks, and his match against Bonzi was done in 14 games. Against Auger-Aliassime, who holds serve at 88% on hard courts, the Australian will find it difficult both to hold comfortably and to threaten consistently on return. Our pick: Total Games - Under 36.5.
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Betting Tips: Felix Auger Aliassime - Rinky Hijikata
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