Safiullin vs Cobolli Prediction 1 October 2026
🔊 Flavio Cobolli will be looking to defend his ranking points in Beijing, where he reached the second round last year. His first-round opponent is Roman Safiullin, who has already found his rhythm in China, reaching the semi-finals of the ATP 250 in Hangzhou. The odds suggest that even the bookmakers believe the Russian can make a match of it against a higher-ranked opponent from the top 10 - albeit one whose best surface is clay. In this prediction, we look at the underdog's chances of pulling off an upset.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their only previous meeting, Flavio Cobolli came out on top. It was at the 2022 US Open, where the Italian won 6-4, 6-4.
Roman Safiullin Player Overview
Roman Safiullin arrived in Beijing after reaching the semi-finals in Hangzhou, where he lost to Daniil Medvedev (5-7, 4-6). He has won five of his last ten matches, which points to inconsistent form, though he has not had much practice on hard courts this summer: his best result was a Challenger quarter-final in Cancun, and he went out in the first round of the US Open to Carlos Alcaraz. His matches average 24.4 games, and he wins 81% of service points, which allows him to maintain a high tempo and compete with higher-ranked opponents - or at least stay reasonably close on the scoreboard.
Match Results: Roman Safiullin
Flavio Cobolli Player Overview
Flavio Cobolli is ranked 7th in the world, but over his last ten matches has only one more win than his upcoming opponent. His matches tend to produce plenty of games: the average stands at 32.1, including best-of-five formats. His serve is not a particular strength, though - he holds in only 73% of service games. Most of his points come through aggressive baseline rallies. He also stands out for his early and highly effective return, and his speed off the mark combined with his endurance allow him to chase down balls across the full court.
Match Results: Flavio Cobolli
Key factors
- In 6 of Flavio Cobolli's last 7 matches, the total games went Over 23.5.
- Roman Safiullin averages 24.4 games per match, while Flavio Cobolli averages 32.1.
- Both players win roughly half their games and sets, suggesting a potentially even contest.
Expected scenario
The match between Safiullin and Cobolli could go to two closely contested sets or even a deciding third. The Russian underdog has built up decent match sharpness in Hangzhou, while the Italian was occupied at the Laver Cup. Safiullin's serve alone could bring him plenty of free points, whereas Cobolli may have to work hard for every point, covering the court extensively and outlasting his opponent in baseline rallies.
Total Games Prediction
Looking ahead to this match, Flavio Cobolli's run of extended matches suggests that even at his best the Italian rarely wins in dominant fashion. Against Roman Safiullin, who has been in good form on the Chinese courts, doing so looks even less likely.
⭐ Editor's Pick
The statistics for both players point to frequent close matches: Safuillin consistently wins around half of all available games, while Cobolli has almost no wins or losses by a bagel or anything similar. The match will most likely be a competitive, two-way affair, with the reliability of the Russian's serve games a key factor. Despite the considerable ranking gap, the editorial team agrees that a long, tight contest is likely, with Flavio holding a slight edge in physical endurance. That said, if Roman finds his rhythm - as he did in Hangzhou - he is unlikely to fall far behind on the scoreboard, and may even have chances for an upset. The pick is Total Games - Over 21.5.
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Betting Tips: Roman Safiullin - Flavio Cobolli
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