Shapovalov vs Hijikata Prediction 29 July 2026
🔊 Denis Shapovalov, the defending ATP 250 champion in Los Cabos, opens his title defense against Rinky Hijikata. The Australian has never made it past the second round in three previous attempts here, while the Canadian won the Mexican tournament on his very first try. The question is whether Hijikata can make things difficult for the former world No. 10 - especially given Shapovalov's dip in form over recent months.
Head-to-Head
📊 The only previous meeting went to Denis Shapovalov. That match was back in 2023, on hard courts in Adelaide; but the Australian made it competitive against the former top player and took a set off him.
Head-to-head statistics Shapovalov - Hijikata
Denis Shapovalov Player Overview
Shapovalov arrives here in poor form - three wins from his last ten. The slump started on clay: from the Munich quarter-final through to 's-Hertogenbosch, he dropped five straight. He rarely goes quietly, though - matches involving him average close to 25 rallies per match. He wins around 78% of points on serve, but his set win rate sits below 50%, and sets won drops to just 32%.
Match Results: Denis Shapovalov
Rinky Hijikata Player Overview
Hijikata is in decent form - seven wins from his last ten. He takes 51% of games and 58% of sets, holds serve at a high level with 78%. His matches tend to run long, averaging over 25 games, but that reflects how competitive he's been against higher-ranked opponents, which was especially evident at the recent grass-court ATP 500 event in London, where Hijikata made a quite sensational run to the quarter-finals, knocking out top players Alejandro Tabilo and Jiří Lehečka along the way.
Match Results: Rinky Hijikata
Key factors
- Both players average over 24 games per match.
- Neither player's set or game win rate points to clear dominance.
- Their only hard-court meeting went to a third set.
- Rinky Hijikata has been the better player over the last ten matches.
Expected scenario
A close match is likely, with long sets a real possibility. Both players tend to go deep into games, and the form edge for the Australian suggests he can push the defending Los Cabos champion hard. The rankings aren't far apart either. Don't expect a quick finish.
⭐ Editorial prediction
Both first-round players in Los Cabos tend to grind through matches without either taking clear control. Shapovalov has more tools to play aggressive, but he's been burned by that approach more than once this season - his current inconsistent form makes it hard to see him dictating the pace for a full match. The head-to-head doesn't help either: their only meeting was on hard court and went three sets. That points us toward over 21.5 games.
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Betting Tips: Denis Shapovalov - Rinky Hijikata
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