Machac vs Khachanov Prediction 22 October 2026
🔊 Karen Khachanov is already guaranteed to leave Almaty with ranking points, having reached the second round and matched his result from last year's tournament. His best performance here is still some way ahead, though - two seasons ago he won the title. Standing in his way is Tomas Machac, who has struggled to rediscover his best form since picking up an injury at Roland Garros, and on hard courts since the summer has been losing more often than winning. Let's assess the Czech player's chances of an upset.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their only previous meeting, Karen Khachanov won. The match took place more than two years ago on the hard courts of the Australian Open and ended 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 in the Russian's favour.
Tomas Machac Player Overview
Tomáš Macháč arrives in the second round having won five of his last ten matches. He opened the tournament with a victory over Zangar Nurlanuly (6-2, 6-0), and before that reached the quarter-finals of the Challenger in Jinan. Despite inconsistent results, the Czech has shown he can compete with higher-ranked opponents. His hold percentage stands at 75% and points won at 50%. He holds serve consistently and rarely gives up without a fight. An average of 5.6 aces per match reflects a powerful serve, and solid return play gives him chances in every set.
Match Results: Tomas Machac
Karen Khachanov Player Overview
Karen Khachanov holds the higher ranking and has been the more consistent performer: seven wins from his last ten matches reflect solid current form. In the first round he beat Rei Sakamoto 6-2, 6-4, and before that he reached the second week of the Shanghai Masters and the quarter-finals of the Beijing 500. He has won 53% of games played. On serve, Khachanov has held 79% of service games and won 65% of first-serve points, while his return game has also held up, with a 50% break-point conversion rate.
Match Results: Karen Khachanov
Key factors
- Tomáš Macháč has covered the +3.5 games handicap in his last six matches.
- The difference in games won between the two players is small.
- Karen Khachanov won 7% more sets over his last ten matches.
- Macháč was building form at a Challenger event in Jinan ahead of this tournament.
- During the Asian swing, Khachanov has not been eliminated before the round of 16 at ATP 500-level events or above.
Expected scenario
Based on current metrics, both players are capable of dictating the pace of play, which increases the likelihood of a tight scoreline across two or even three sets. There is no significant gap between them in key performance indicators, though it is worth noting that Machac compiled part of his statistics at a lower-tier event. Expect plenty of holds and breaks, given the quality of serve from both players and their versatility across surfaces.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Tomáš Macháč showed signs of life at his most recent tournament. The level of competition there was lower than here, which is the caveat. That said, his overall numbers are not far off Karen Khachanov's, and the head-to-head record on hard courts also suggests Macháč can make things competitive against the higher-ranked Russian. The match looks likely to be tight, at least over one stretch of play. A heavy defeat seems unlikely, so we'll take the modest Khachanov - Games Handicap -2.5, which falls within the typical winning-margin range his upcoming opponent tends to produce.
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Betting Tips: Tomas Machac - Karen Khachanov
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