Medvedev vs Shimabukuro Prediction 22 October 2026
🔊 Daniil Medvedev has arrived in Almaty to defend his title from last year and opens his campaign against Sho Shimabukuro, who caused an upset in the first round against Safiullin. Medvedev has admitted he is feeling the strain of a packed schedule, but the Almaty tournament matters greatly to him in the race to qualify for the ATP Finals - he currently sits sixth in the Race to Turin. Let's assess the chances of the Japanese player, ranked outside the top 200, of derailing the world number five's plans.
Head-to-Head
📊 Daniil Medvedev and Sho Shimabukuro have not previously met.
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev arrives at this tournament in excellent form: eight wins from his last ten matches, including the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou at the start of the Asian swing. At his two most recent tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai he reached the semi-finals, with victories over the likes of Cerundolo, Tsitsipas and Paul. His matches average 21.5 games, which points to regular totals above the tour average even when he is the favourite. That said, a high set-winning rate (82%) and a solid hold percentage (76%) reflect control over the majority of his matches.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Sho Shimabukuro Player Overview
Sho Shimabukuro is ranked outside the top 100 and has been inconsistent, winning only three of his last ten matches. His average of 24.5 games per match points to frequent extended sets, even in defeats. He holds serve at above 80%, though his overall sets-won rate of 32% is well below the level of top-10 opponents. In the first round in Almaty, as the underdog, he pulled off an upset with a determined win over Roman Safiullin (6-7, 6-4, 6-4). That said, he came into the tournament on a three-match losing streak, winning at least six games in each of those defeats.
Match Results: Sho Shimabukuro
Key factors
- In 6 of Daniil Medvedev's last 7 matches, the total went over 18.5 games.
- The average match length is 21.5 games for Medvedev and 24.5 for Shimabukuro.
- Sho Shimabukuro came into the tournament on a three-match losing streak, though he won at least six games in each of those matches.
Expected scenario
Daniil Medvedev should control the match through his superior level of play and serving consistency. That said, the playing styles of both men suggest the favourite is unlikely to dominate completely. Up against Medvedev's defensive, deep-returning game, Sho Shimabukuro has a chance to take a reasonable number of games and avoid a heavy defeat - at least in one set, particularly if Medvedev is feeling the effects of a congested schedule.
Total Games Prediction
Total Games - Over 18.5 landed in 6 of Daniil Medvedev's last 7 matches. In most of his recent matches, the minimum games threshold was cleared even when he won comfortably. Sho Shimabukuro came into the tournament on a three-match losing streak, but consistently won six or more games in each of those defeats.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev's form remains strong, backed by consistent results throughout the current Asian swing. That said, he rarely gets through matches quickly regardless of the opponent's level. Even with inconsistent play, Sho Shimabukuro has shown decent productivity by the standards of a player ranked outside the top 100. Given Medvedev's fairly passive baseline style and his less than fully optimal physical condition after a packed schedule, the Japanese underdog may well maintain his games tally and make things competitive against the world number five. The pick is Total Games - Over 18.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Sho Shimabukuro
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