Alexandrova vs Kostyuk Prediction 21 October 2026
🔊 In Ningbo, Marta Kostyuk has a chance to level her head-to-head record with Ekaterina Alexandrova. The Ukrainian trails the Russian by just one win and arrives at the tournament seeded third. That said, the draw could have been kinder to her, as Alexandrova is defending a final from last year's edition. It makes for an interesting question of who will have more motivation to reach the quarter-finals.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their head-to-head record, Ekaterina Alexandrova leads 2-1. On hard courts, however, each player has one win.
Head-to-head statistics Alexandrova - Kostyuk
Ekaterina Alexandrova Player Overview
Ekaterina Alexandrova enters the second round with six wins in her last ten matches, reflecting somewhat inconsistent form. However, she remains capable of pushing even top-tier opponents, drawing on her past experience as a former top-10 player. Among her strengths is a high service hold rate, winning 71% of such games. Additionally, the Russian possesses a solid return game, converting 44% of her break points. Her matches average 22.9 games, while her set win rate stands at 52%. She rarely goes down without a fight - in only one of her four defeats over this ten-game stretch did the match fail to produce either a tie-break or a deciding set.
Match Results: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Marta Kostyuk Player Overview
Marta Kostyuk is ranked higher at 10th compared to Alexandrova's 33rd, but both have the same record of six wins from their last ten matches, and Kostyuk is currently on a three-match losing streak. During the Asian swing she played only in Wuhan, where she lost immediately to Maria Sakkari 6-4, 2-6, 2-6. Her serve has been consistent: first-serve percentage of 65% and an average of nearly five aces per match. Her hold rate is slightly lower than Alexandrova's (66%), though her break-point conversion rate is higher (54%). In their most recent meeting at the US Open, Kostyuk won 2-0, but overall the two players are very close across both games won (53%) and sets won (59%).
Match Results: Marta Kostyuk
Key factors
- Ekaterina Alexandrova has covered the +2.5 games handicap in 9 of her last 10 matches.
- In head-to-head meetings, Alexandrova leads 2-1, suggesting comparable levels.
- The average number of games in Alexandrova's matches is 22.9.
- Alexandrova has won 52% of games played; Marta Kostyuk has won 53%.
Expected scenario
The match looks likely to be closely contested: recent statistics show comparable game-winning rates for both players, with neither showing clear dominance. The expected scenario is a competitive match without a significant gap in the scoreline, as was the case in their two previous hard-court meetings, where each player won once.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Neither player goes into this match with a clear advantage in form or results. The minimal gap in overall and serve statistics, an even head-to-head record on hard courts, and Ekaterina Alexandrova's experience of performing well against elite opponents when ranked inside the WTA top 10 all give her reason to expect a close contest, even as the underdog in the betting. Although Marta Kostyuk sits inside the world's top ten, her current losing run points to inconsistent form this autumn. With that in mind, we're backing the underdog: Alexandrova - Games Handicap +3.5.
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Betting Tips: Ekaterina Alexandrova - Marta Kostyuk
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