Kostyuk vs Alexandrova Prediction 4 September 2026
🔊 Marta Kostyuk and Ekaterina Alexandrova have reached the third round of the US Open for the second year running, with a place in the second week now at stake. Both went on to the fourth round in New York in 2025, though only one can repeat that this time. Kostyuk is the clear favourite, but Alexandrova's solid start means this is no formality.
Head-to-Head
📊 Alexandrova has won both previous meetings. In 2021 she won on clay in Rome (6-3, 6-1), and in 2022 on hard court in Portorož (7-6, 5-7, 7-5).
Head-to-head statistics Kostyuk - Alexandrova
Marta Kostyuk Player Overview
Kostyuk opened her US Open campaign with a win over Storm Hunter (6-4, 6-1) and then beat Sloane Stephens (6-1, 7-5). In both matches she pulled away after level spells and kept things out of a deciding set. Both opponents were ranked well outside the top 100, so the results confirm Kostyuk's readiness without fully testing her ahead of a match against a top-20 player.
On hard courts in 2026, Kostyuk has won 13 of 19 matches. Her first-serve percentage stands at 57%, she has won 72% of first-serve points and 46% of second-serve points, and 44% of return points. Notably, the stronger results have not come only against lower-ranked opponents: on this surface she has beaten Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimova, Mirra Andreeva and Madison Keys. That said, the winning margins were not always large - she beat Anisimova by 3 games and Andreeva in one match by 4.
Match Results: Marta Kostyuk
Ekaterina Alexandrova Player Overview
Alexandrova beat McCartney Kessler 6-2, 6-2 and then got past Kimberly Birrell 6-1, 2-6, 6-3 in the second round. The two matches were quite different: in the first she dropped no serve, while in the second she went through a sharp dip before responding well in the deciding set. That kind of recovery matters ahead of a match against Kostyuk, who is capable of building pressure quickly after an even start.
Across the first two rounds, Alexandrova's hard-court record this season stands at 11 wins and 12 losses. Her first serve goes in 60% of the time and wins her 66% of those points; on second serve she wins 46%, and on return 42%. Kostyuk's overall numbers are stronger, particularly on first serve and return, though Alexandrova's schedule has included more matches against top players. She beat Aryna Sabalenka, and in losses to Karolína Muchová and Clara Tauson the margins were narrow enough to support the positive games handicap selected here.
Match Results: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Key factors
- Kostyuk has won 13 of her 19 hard-court matches this season; Alexandrova has won 11 of 23.
- Kostyuk wins 44% of return points; Alexandrova wins 42%.
- Alexandrova has won both their head-to-head meetings, including their only match on hard court.
- Kostyuk has not always covered the handicap (-4.5) in wins over strong opponents: she beat Anisimova by 3 games and Andreeva by 4.
- On hard court this season, Alexandrova has already beaten opponents of a higher level than the first two players Kostyuk faced in the draw.
Expected scenario
Kostyuk should have an advantage on return and get more opportunities to engage in rallies off Alexandrova's second serve. The Ukrainian has had a better season on hard courts and can put together runs of games when her first-serve percentage is high. Against a stronger first serve, though, it will be harder for her to build the same kind of return pressure she found in her matches against Hunter and Stephens.
Alexandrova needs to avoid repeating the second-set collapse against Birrell. Her first serve can reduce the number of extended games, and her experience against top-ten opponents helps her handle a higher tempo. Kostyuk remains the likely winner, but a large margin would require her to outperform the Russian clearly on both serve and return from the start.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Kostyuk is reasonably considered the favourite on the back of a better season record, a more effective first serve and an advantage on return. That said, her first two rounds did not test her against comparable opposition, whereas Alexandrova has faced top players regularly this season and has not always lost by a wide margin.
For that reason, we are taking the positive games handicap on Alexandrova. Her strong first serve, favourable head-to-head record and ability to keep matches close against higher-ranked opponents make this a more reliable option than backing a comfortable Kostyuk win.
Pick: Ekaterina Alexandrova - Games Handicap +4.5.
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Betting Tips: Marta Kostyuk - Ekaterina Alexandrova
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