Medvedev vs Struff Prediction 10 October 2026
🔊 Daniil Medvedev arrives in Shanghai needing to defend ranking points from last year's semi-final run. Jan-Lennard Struff will attempt to stand in his way, having already matched his result from the previous edition of this Masters event, so he has at least met his baseline target. Notably, the two played just a week ago in Beijing, where Medvedev came out on top. Let's consider whether Struff has a realistic chance of turning things around here.
Head-to-Head
📊 Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Jan-Lennard Struff: 8 wins from 13 matches. On hard courts the record is even more one-sided - 6-1 in the Russian's favour.
Head-to-head statistics Medvedev - Struff
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev is in strong form this season: nine wins from his last ten matches, including the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou and a semi-final run at the ATP 500 in Beijing, where he also faced Jan-Lennard Struff, beating him 6-4, 6-3. Over this period, Medvedev has won 59% of games and 83% of sets. On serve he is consistent - holding 78% of his service games - and regularly reaches double figures for aces. His first-serve percentage stands at 67%, and he plays a restrained, defensive baseline game with a deep return.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Jan-Lennard Struff Player Overview
Jan-Lennard Struff has been less consistent, winning only five of his last ten matches. He opened the Shanghai Masters with a win over Martin Landaluce (6-4, 6-4), but came into the tournament on an alternating run of results stretching back to early August - eight matches in all. He is winning fewer than half of all games (48%) and just over half of his sets (52%). There are also some issues with his serve: his hold percentage is high (81%), but his first-serve percentage drops to 55%, while his average aces per match is close to double figures (9.4).
Match Results: Jan-Lennard Struff
Key factors
- Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of 13 head-to-head matches against Jan-Lennard Struff.
- Daniil Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches, losing just one.
- The -3.5 games handicap has come in for Daniil Medvedev in seven consecutive matches.
- In their most recent meeting, Daniil Medvedev beat Jan-Lennard Struff 2-0.
- Over his last ten matches, Daniil Medvedev has won 83% of sets and 59% of games.
Expected scenario
Daniil Medvedev looks set to control this match, regularly gaining the upper hand over the German through consistent form and a clear advantage across key metrics. A third set seems unlikely, and the margin could be considerable - Medvedev has won each of their last four meetings without dropping a set.
Total Games Prediction
Medvedev often wraps up his matches without unnecessary prolongation, not allowing opponents to drag things into nervy finishes. This is supported by a run of five consecutive matches finishing under the tour's threshold line.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev's confident form is backed by an advantage in key performance metrics and a positive head-to-head record against Jan-Lennard Struff. His consistent serving allows him to hold the majority of his service games. His upcoming opponent has been struggling on serve, particularly with first-serve accuracy. The main scenario points to a comfortable winning margin for the favourite. The pick is Medvedev - Games Handicap -3.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff
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in 6 of last 7 matches against Jan-Lennard Struff.
in 6 of last 7 matches against Jan-Lennard Struff.Other predictions
