Medvedev vs Struff Prediction 3 October 2026
🔊 After winning the title in Hangzhou, Daniil Medvedev had an extra day's rest in Beijing, which helped him ease past Pablo Carreño Busta in the first round. Next up is Jan-Lennard Struff, who beat the Russian at Wimbledon a few months ago in what was his best tournament of the season, reaching the quarter-finals. That said, at every other event this year the German has gone no further than the second round. We'll see whether Struff can break that run.
Head-to-Head
📊 Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 9-3. That said, 8 of their 12 matches have gone over 19.5 games.
Head-to-head statistics Medvedev - Struff
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev is in excellent form - eight wins from his last ten matches, including a current five-match winning streak that brought him the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou and a first-round win over Pablo Carreño Busta in Beijing (6-4, 6-2). That said, such one-sided scorelines are unusual for Medvedev: his matches average 26 games. He tends to play passively during rallies, operating well behind the baseline and meeting the ball three to four metres behind the court on return. His game does have attacking elements, though - on serve he holds 80% of his service games and averages more than 13 aces per match.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Jan-Lennard Struff Player Overview
Jan-Lennard Struff has been inconsistent over his last ten matches, winning four and losing six. That said, the German tends to make life difficult for higher-ranked opponents, as reflected in his average match length of 25 games. Like Medvedev, Struff has a powerful serve, holding in 80% of service games, though his first-serve percentage drops to 52%. He is effective on return, converting nearly half of his break-point opportunities (45%). Against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the first round in Beijing, he broke three times to win 6-1, 6-4.
Match Results: Jan-Lennard Struff
Key factors
- In 9 of Daniil Medvedev's last 10 matches, the total went over 20.5 games.
- The average number of games per match is 25.8 for Medvedev and 24.9 for Struff.
- In 8 of their 12 head-to-head meetings, the total went over 19.5 games.
- Both players hold serve comfortably, which contributes to higher game counts.
Expected scenario
The match is expected to be played at an intense pace, with Daniil Medvedev looking to extend rallies through his baseline game and deep counter-hitting, forcing Jan-Lennard Struff into risks and errors. The German will predictably rely on a powerful first serve and quick approaches to the net, aiming to win points in two or three shots and avoid the long, grinding exchanges on hard court where the Russian is near-unbeatable.
Total Games Prediction
Most of Daniil Medvedev's recent matches have gone over high totals, driven by grinding baseline rallies and easy service points from the Russian. His upcoming German opponent also has a powerful serve, so alongside any breaks from Daniil, there should be plenty of holds from both players.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev remains in strong form - eight wins from ten matches - and his consistent hold of serve combined with a heavy, grinding baseline tempo on hard courts gives him an edge even against big servers like Jan-Lennard Struff. Medvedev will receive well behind the baseline to neutralise his opponent's powerful serve, and if he can make early inroads on return, he will force Struff to cover a lot of court, which is a weakness for the tall 36-year-old German.
That said, a high number of breaks is unlikely. Early on, both players will probably trade holds, with each holding serve comfortably on their own games. Without underestimating Medvedev's advantage in both class and current results, the more notable pattern is that most of his matches go deep into marathon-like territory. A similar dynamic often appears in his head-to-head meetings with Struff. We expect the same here, which is why we suggest looking at Total Games - Over 20.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff
in 5 of last 6 matches against Jan-Lennard Struff.in 5 of last 6 matches against Jan-Lennard Struff..svg)
in last 6 matches against Jan-Lennard Struff.Other predictions
