Paul vs Alcaraz Prediction 6 September 2026
🔊 Carlos Alcaraz's victory in the previous round was his 27th at the US Open, drawing level with the legendary Pete Sampras for the most wins in the first six appearances at the tournament in the Open Era. Only John McEnroe and Lleyton Hewitt have more. Standing in his way is Tommy Paul, who has a milestone of his own within reach: the US Open is the only Grand Slam where the American has yet to reach a quarter-final. We'll see who has more motivation to advance further in the draw.
Head-to-Head
📊 Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head record six wins to two against Tommy Paul. Notably, the Spaniard is on an unbeaten run of five matches in the series.
Head-to-head statistics Paul - Alcaraz
Tommy Paul Player Overview
Tommy Paul has built good momentum at the US Open, beating Chak Lam Coleman Wong (6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3), Dino Prizmic (6-2, 6-2, 5-7, 6-4) and Alexander Bublik (6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3) on his way to the round of 16. The Bublik match stands out from the others, yet it took him only nine minutes longer than the Prizmic match - 3 hours 14 minutes. Notably, there was little in his summer hard-court run to suggest a strong Major campaign: he finished that stretch with a modest 4-3 record, and although he reached the quarter-finals in Cincinnati, he entered from the second round.
Paul is not a typical product of the American tennis school. He grew up on clay, which has given him considerable stamina and footwork that allow him to cover the full court and retrieve difficult balls. At 185 cm he is not a particularly big player, yet he holds serve in 79% of his service games. The bulk of his points come from rallies, where he can defend solidly with a two-handed backhand or go flat and aggressive with it. He is also comfortable coming to the net, often doing so straight off his serve.
Match Results: Tommy Paul
Carlos Alcaraz Player Overview
Carlos Alcaraz is making a confident run towards defending his US Open title. In the main draw so far he has dropped just one set, to Jaime Faria (4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2), while beating his other two opponents without dropping a set: Roman Safiullin in the first round (6-4, 6-4, 6-4) and Yibing Wu in the third (6-3, 6-4, 6-1). A back-to-back New York Slam title would make him the first player to achieve that since 2008 - though it is too early to think about that just yet, even if Roger Federer may be paying attention somewhere. The Swiss, of course, won the US Open every year from 2004 to 2008.
Alcaraz's game is often described as an evolution of the Big Three - Nadal, Federer and Djokovic - combining drop shots comparable to the Swiss, with movement and defensive solidity on a par with his Spanish compatriot and the Serb. His serve is perhaps the one relative weakness, with a hold percentage of just 67%. That said, his overall technical range is broad enough that the serve rarely becomes a decisive factor. Like his upcoming opponent, the current world number three is also frequently seen at the net, particularly after his characteristic slice.
Match Results: Carlos Alcaraz
Key factors
- In five consecutive US Open matches involving Tommy Paul, the total games has gone over 37.5.
- Carlos Alcaraz trails Paul significantly in terms of hold percentage.
- In 4 of their 6 hard-court meetings, Paul has taken at least one set off Alcaraz.
Expected scenario
Carlos Alcaraz will probably take control early, using his forehand power to push the American back, mixing heavy attacking play with his trademark disguised drop shots. Tommy Paul, driven on by the home crowd, will look to his defensive game, forcing the Spaniard into extra shots in rallies, and will try to disrupt the rhythm with frequent counter-attacks, cross-court redirections and regular net approaches. A key factor for the American's plan is how fresh his legs are, given that he spent more than three sets on court in each match on his way to the fourth round.
Total Games Prediction
Tommy Paul's run of extended matches at the US Open adds to the expectation of a high-scoring encounter here. The American regularly features in matches with a high game count, and in his head-to-head meetings with Alcaraz - including on hard courts and grass - he has frequently exceeded the standard tour thresholds for individual total games.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This looks set to be a long, high-intensity battle of attrition. Physical freshness could be a key factor: Carlos Alcaraz, having come through less demanding matches, is likely to push the pace. Tommy Paul, though accustomed to intense play from an early age, has probably accumulated fatigue after 13 sets across three rounds in the US Open main draw. He will need to make his first serve count to stop the Spaniard from taking control. That said, this scenario is quite plausible given the American's advantage in holding serve. We're backing the underdog, or at least expecting him to drag this one out. The pick is Total Games - Over 33.5.
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Betting Tips: Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz
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in 4 of last 5 matches against Carlos Alcaraz.in 6 of last 7 matches against Carlos Alcaraz.Other predictions
