Jodar vs Musetti Prediction 6 August 2026
🔊 Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti arrive at the third round of the Montreal Masters as direct rivals for a spot in the world's top ten. One ranking spot separates them in the ATP list. The Spaniard is currently behind the Italian - but last week he beat him on hard court in Washington. And the 19-year-old prodigy has had a breakthrough season: he started the year outside the top 100. Let's see how far Rafael can go at his debut Canadian Masters.
Head-to-Head
📊 These two have met before - once, and Raphael Haddad won it in three sets. That match was last week in Washington, at the quarter-final stage.
Rafael Jodar Player Overview
Rafael Jodar arrives off a Washington final and a second-round win over Corentin Moutet in Montreal (4:6, 6:1, 6:3). After the Washington 500 final against Taylor Fritz - delayed by rain - he had just one full day to rest and travel to Canada. On serve, Jodar wins around 76% of points. He takes 51% of games overall, and return is one of his main weapons: 42% break-point conversion. One trend worth flagging: despite solid numbers through matches, Jodar has dropped four first sets in a row - he tends to start slow.
Match Results: Rafael Jodar
Lorenzo Musetti Player Overview
Musetti hasn't strung together three wins in a row since the Australian Open, and hasn't won a title since 2022. Still sitting at No. 13, still knocking on the top ten. His numbers are roughly in line with his upcoming opponent - 52% of games won, 65% of sets. He starts matches better though: first-set win rate at 78%, noticeably higher than Jodar's. Points won on serve are nearly identical - around 75% for both. Where Musetti has the edge is double faults: his rate stays under 3%, cleaner than the Spaniard.
Match Results: Lorenzo Musetti
Key factors
- Lorenzo Musetti has covered the handicap (+2.5) in 6 of his last 7 matches.
- Their most recent meeting went to a third set.
- Both players have similar game and set win rates over their last ten matches.
- Their serve and return stats are nearly identical.
Expected scenario
This should be a tight one, with both players competing hard in every set. Both hold serve well, both can make things difficult on return, and the gap between them across key metrics is small. A third set is a real possibility - and given how often the Spaniard struggles to start well, the chances of this going down to the wire are noticeably higher.
⭐ Editor's prediction
A competitive match with no clear edge either way - both players' results and stats through the Montreal third round are close, and their most recent meeting went to a deciding set. Jodar has had trouble with slow starts, and Musetti's return game, carried over from clay, should keep him in the match longer than his underdog status suggests. Expect another long, entertaining one. The play here is over 21.5 games.
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Betting Tips: Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti
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