Surface:
Hard
Round:
Semifinal
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR
WTA - 1
2
:
1
Ended
Jessica Pegula
USA
WTA - 4

Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction 4 September 2025

    BLR
    Aryna Sabalenka
    USA
    Jessica Pegula
    4
    6
    6
    2
    6
    3
    4
    1

    🎾The first US Open semifinal is set, with Aryna Sabalenka taking on Jessica Pegula. The world number one finds herself in an ideal situation, having gained an extra day off after Vondrousova withdrew due to a knee injury. Pegula, meanwhile, faced a relatively straightforward match against Krejcikova.

    Head-to-Head

    Sobolenko and Pegula have faced each other nine times, with the American securing just two victories. Notably, only three of these encounters took place on surfaces other than hard courts.

    Head-to-head statistics Sabalenka - Pegula

    69%
    9 Wins
    31%
    4 Wins
    20.06.26
    Berlin, Germany Women Singles
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    1
    2
    4
    6
    7
    6
    0
    6
    04.11.25
    WTA Finals Singles
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    2
    1
    6
    4
    2
    6
    6
    3
    11.10.25
    WUH
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    1
    2
    6
    2
    4
    6
    6
    7
    04.09.25
    USO
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    2
    1
    4
    6
    6
    3
    6
    4
    29.03.25
    MIA
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    2
    0
    7
    5
    6
    2
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    Aryna Sabalenka Player Overview

    Sabalenka continues to cruise at the US Open, with the world number one yet to drop a set. While it's true that she hasn't faced particularly strong opponents so far, apart from Leylah Fernandez, who has previously won the US Open, the quarterfinal turned out to be a breeze for the Belarusian. Her opponent withdrew due to a knee injury sustained in a match against Rybakina. Sabalenka will have four days of rest before the semifinal, which could disrupt her rhythm and have a negative impact. An unplanned break means a slight adjustment in preparation plans. Nevertheless, Sabalenka knows exactly how to prepare and perform in such matches. Moreover, her head-to-head record against Pegula underscores Sabalenka's dominance.

    Match Results: Aryna Sabalenka

    20.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Sara Bejlek
    Sara Bejlek
    0
    2
    67
    79
    4
    6
    L
    18.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Wang Xin Yu
    Wang Xin Yu
    2
    0
    6
    1
    6
    3
    W
    16.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Talia Gibson
    Talia Gibson
    2
    0
    6
    2
    77
    62
    W
    08.08.26
    Canada Toronto
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Ekaterina Alexandrova
    Ekaterina Alexandrova
    1
    2
    63
    77
    6
    4
    4
    6
    L
    06.08.26
    Canada Toronto
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Aryna Sabalenka
    Shuai Zhang
    Shuai Zhang
    2
    0
    6
    3
    6
    4
    W
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    Jessica Pegula Player Overview

    The American faced little resistance in the US Open quarterfinals. Pegula took on Barbora Krejcikova, who had endured several intense and grueling matches leading up to this encounter. The Czech simply ran out of steam. Pegula triumphed 6-3, 6-3, showcasing her skills at the net. However, Jessica didn't exert herself too much, maintaining a steady performance without aggression. Throughout the tournament, the American has not dropped a set and hasn't even been pushed to a tiebreak. Hard courts are Pegula's favorite surface, where she feels most comfortable, bolstered by the enthusiastic support of the fans. Jessica is determined to fight until the very end, especially as she aims to surpass last year's result and finally clinch the title.

    Match Results: Jessica Pegula

    23.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Cori Gauff
    Cori Gauff
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    2
    0
    6
    2
    6
    4
    L
    22.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    Iga Swiatek
    Iga Swiatek
    2
    1
    7
    5
    4
    6
    6
    4
    W
    20.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Amanda Anisimova
    Amanda Anisimova
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    1
    2
    4
    6
    6
    2
    64
    77
    W
    19.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Sorana Cirstea
    Sorana Cirstea
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    1
    2
    2
    6
    6
    4
    5
    7
    W
    17.08.26
    USA Cincinnati
    Emma Navarro
    Emma Navarro
    Jessica Pegula
    Jessica Pegula
    0
    2
    5
    7
    2
    6
    W
    Empty
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    Editor's Prediction

    Sabalenka is the clear favorite, having defeated Pegula in last year's US Open final with scores of 7-5, 7-5. While Jessica is certainly eager for revenge, their head-to-head history suggests that the world number one holds the upper hand. Expect a tightly contested match, with Sabalenka coming in fresh and rested, while Pegula will have the support of the home crowd behind her. Our bet is on the total match points over 19.5.

    Total Over (19,5)
    Published: 03/09/2025, 08:25

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    Betting Tips: Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula

    Aryna Sabalenka has won:
    aryna-sabalenkapegula-jessicain 7 of last 8 matches against Jessica Pegula.
    Aryna Sabalenka Win
    Bovada
    -323
    Jessica Pegula has won:
    pegula-jessicain last 5 matches (WTA US Open).
    Jessica Pegula Win
    Bovada
    +270
    Aryna Sabalenka has won the 1st set:
    aryna-sabalenkapegula-jessicain 7 of last 8 matches against Jessica Pegula.
    1st Set Aryna Sabalenka Win
    Bovada
    -250
    Jessica Pegula has won the 1st set:
    pegula-jessicain 8 of last 9 matches.
    pegula-jessicain last 5 matches (WTA US Open).
    1st Set Jessica Pegula Win
    Bovada
    +185
    View more facts