Berrettini vs Vallejo Prediction 3 October 2026
🔊 In the first round in Tokyo, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo claimed the first top-15 win of his career, defeating Rafael Jodar. Next up is former top player Matteo Berrettini, who reached a career-high of No. 6 in the ATP rankings. The Paraguayan is currently on the fringes of the elite at No. 56, but a good result here could lift him into the top 50. That makes it all the more interesting to see how far Adolfo can climb in the rankings at his debut tournament in Japan.
Head-to-Head
📊 Matteo Berrettini and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo have not previously met.
Matteo Berrettini Player Overview
Matteo Berrettini has been inconsistent recently, winning six of his last ten matches. His results have alternated in each of his last six meetings, and he has not put together a winning streak of even two matches since Wimbledon. Berrettini is highly effective on serve, holding in 84% of service games, which - despite his general dip in form - allows him to regularly compete for at least a set and get involved in extended matches averaging 35.6 games. That pattern also contributes to a solid sets-won rate of 64%. In the first round in Tokyo he pulled off a surprise win over the defending Chengdu champion Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, though he started the match poorly, losing the first set 1-6 before winning 7-6 and 6-4.
Match Results: Matteo Berrettini
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Player Overview
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has similar recent results - five wins from his last ten matches - but in Tokyo he has put together a flawless run of three, starting in qualifying where he beat Jaime Faria and Taro Daniel. In the first round of the main draw he produced one of the tournament's biggest upsets, beating world No. 13 Rafael Jodar 6-1, 6-3. The Paraguayan holds around 79% of his service games, and the total games per match - including his opponent's service games - exceeds 25. Primarily a clay-court player, Vallejo is effective on return, converting around 39% of break points. However, his sets-won percentage is well below his upcoming opponent's - 46% against 64%.
Match Results: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Key factors
- In Matteo Berrettini's last five matches, the total has gone over 22.5 games each time.
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo's average total games per match is also above 25.
- Both players caused upsets in the first round in Tokyo, beating higher-ranked opponents.
Expected scenario
In this match, a close contest with a high total of games seems likely, given both players' solid serving and ability to compete in individual sets regardless of the opposition. Their approaches differ, though: the Italian will rely on a powerful serve, while the Paraguayan tends to earn most of his points through rallies and returning.
Total Games Prediction
Recent matches involving Matteo Berrettini have often featured high totals, largely due to his ability to hold serve. That said, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has been in good form of late and may well manage a couple of breaks through aggressive returning and deliberately extending rallies to draw errors from the Italian.
⭐ Editor's Pick
The form of both players suggests tight sets: each has solid hold numbers, with the difference that Matteo Berrettini picks up more free points through a run of aces. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, by contrast, is likely to rely on aggressive returning and grinding rallies, pushing the ball into the corners and keeping the 30-year-old Italian constantly on the move, gradually slowing him down. It is reasonable to expect the young Paraguayan to put up fierce resistance on the back of confidence from a notable upset in the first round, which could well make for a lengthy match. The pick is Total Games - Over 21.5.
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Betting Tips: Matteo Berrettini - Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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