Metz vs Pau Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 30 October 2026
🔊 Pau have won their last four Ligue 2 matches and sit fifth, three points above Metz. Metz, however, are unbeaten in their last six home league games. A Metz win on Friday would level the two sides on points. Whose run will hold?
Head-to-Head
Pau beat Metz 2-1 in their most recent head-to-head meeting in Ligue 2. Despite having just 34% possession against 66%, the hosts had more shots - 19 to 16 - and significantly outperformed their opponents in expected goals: 3.4 to 1.84.
Across four head-to-head meetings, each side has won once and the other two matches have ended in draws. Both wins came at home: Metz have never conceded against Pau on their own ground, and Pau have failed to score in both away matches against Metz.
Head-to-head statistics Metz - Pau
Metz Team Overview
Metz drew 1-1 with Dunkerque in their last Ligue 2 match. Leading at half-time, they finished the game with nine shots on target to the hosts' five.
Metz's weak point is their defence: they have conceded in eight consecutive Ligue 2 matches. Grégory Proment, who replaced Luca Holtz at the end of September, admitted after the Dijon and Sochaux games: "The goals we're conceding are our own fault." The manager believes individual errors need to be corrected rather than the overall style of play. But in Dunkerque, exactly that kind of error proved costly. Metz took the lead as early as the ninth minute, and in the second half their opponents were reduced to ten men. Shortly after that, Proment's side gave away an unnecessary penalty and came away with only a point. In their last five home Ligue 2 matches, meanwhile, Metz have scored 12 goals.
Match Results: Metz
Pau Team Overview
Pau beat Grenoble 2-1 in their last Ligue 2 match. The hosts' dominance was reflected in the shots - 16-6 - and in possession - 68% to 32%. Shots on target were 5-1 in Pau's favour.
Pau's winning run has been built on character. The latest example came in their match against Grenoble (2:1) on 23 October. Pau were losing at half-time and scored both goals after the 75th minute, with the winner coming from substitute Lorenzo Rajo on 89 minutes. Manager Thierry Debes admitted he gave the team a dressing-down at the interval, saying the players had been far too sleepy. "This is a victory of commitment," was Debes's verdict. Pau have also shown they can protect a lead: the week before, they went two goals up in Guingamp and their opponents only managed to pull one back. Pau have conceded fewer goals this season than Metz - ten against 14.
Match Results: Pau
Match Result Prediction
Metz have gone six home matches in a row without defeat. This season they have won three and drawn two of their five home games. The risk is that Pau have been decent away from home: two wins, a draw and one defeat. A draw would be enough for Metz. The bet is Metz not to lose.
Total Goals Prediction
Metz have not had fewer than two goals in a home match in eight consecutive games. This season, they have scored 12 and conceded seven at home across five matches. Pau's away record is more modest: five scored and four conceded in four matches. We're expecting at least three goals, with two meaning a push. The bet is Total Goals - Over 2.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the top three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11.28%), 2-1 (9.39%) and 1-0 (8.85%). Of these, 1-1 has the highest probability, with 2-1 and 1-0 in second and third place respectively.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
At home in Ligue 2, Metz have scored and conceded in five consecutive matches. Both teams have scored in 7 of Metz's last 8 league matches, and the hosts have not kept a single clean sheet across those eight games. Pau, meanwhile, have scored at least twice in each of their last four matches. Against that kind of attack, Metz's defence is unlikely to get through the full 90 minutes without conceding. The pick is Both Teams to Score - Yes.
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Betting Tips: Metz - Pau
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