Lokomotiv vs CSKA Prediction
🔊 Who will come out on top in the Moscow derby during the fifth round of the Russian Cup group stage? A victory for Lokomotiv would secure their spot in the RPL Path playoffs ahead of schedule. Even if CSKA claim all three points, there's still a scenario where everything hinges on the final round. Nevertheless, both Moscow teams shouldn't face serious challenges in advancing to the next stage. Bookmakers haven't settled on a favorite for this matchup. Therefore, we'll explore various scenarios to make an insightful prediction. It's worth noting that the game will take place at the "RZD Arena".
Head-to-Head
📊 Over a stretch of 42 head-to-head matches, CSKA hold the advantage with a 48 percent win rate. This season, the teams have only clashed in the Russian Cup. Lokomotiv fielded a semi-reserve squad, while the "Army Men" went with their first team. Fabio Celestini's judgment proved correct, as his side secured a 2-1 victory. However, he didn't have a deep roster at that time.
Despite their head-to-head advantage, Lokomotiv pose a significant threat to CSKA, especially in the first half. They've found the net in 7 out of the last 8 encounters at the "RZD Arena" during this period. It's unlikely that the "Red-Blues" will focus on defense. Under Celestini, that's not their style. Therefore, betting on a home goal in the first half seems reasonable.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Lokomotiv Moscow Team Overview
Lokomotiv's only defeat this season came at the hands of CSKA. In the league, they are currently on an unbeaten streak that has reached 10 matches. However, they've had a frustrating run of draws. After dropping points in five consecutive games, the "Railwaymen" finally secured a victory. Last weekend, they defeated Rubin, keeping a clean sheet in a 1-0 win, something that hasn't been common for them recently. Despite losing 10 points over five matches, Lokomotiv have climbed to second place in the standings, trailing only CSKA.
Since their loss to CSKA in the Russian Cup, Lokomotiv have not dropped any more points. This is partly because Mikhail Galaktionov has opted for a more cautious approach, limiting squad rotation. This strategy might have influenced their league results. However, three consecutive victories have allowed them to lead their group. In the last round, the "Railwaymen" moved closer to securing a playoff spot by defeating Akron 3-1. The game was essentially decided early in the second half when Nikolay Komlichenko scored twice within a minute.
Match Results: Lokomotiv Moscow
CSKA Moscow Team Overview
After the international break, Fabio Celestini noticed a dip in his team's performance. However, this was only evident in the match against Rostov (0-1), where the "Army Men" saw two players sent off. Nonetheless, this defeat remains their only one in the league. Following that, they managed to edge past Sochi (3-1) and, in the last round, handed Baltika their first defeat in the RPL (1-0). CSKA played with dominance at home but only managed to score in the fifth minute of added time, after which the final whistle blew almost immediately. Once again, Igor Diveev secured the victory; his goal was previously decisive in the Russian Super Cup. These three points allowed CSKA to climb to the top of the standings for perhaps the first time this season.
In the Russian Cup, CSKA's performance has been less impressive. They have only defeated Lokomotiv and Baltika (2-0) away from home. If the team fails to win in regular time, they invariably lose in penalty shootouts. This was the case against Akron (1-2) and Baltika (1-2), who at that point had no points. As a result, the "Red-Blues" have fallen behind Lokomotiv, despite having beaten them at the start of the tournament.
Match Results: CSKA Moscow
Latest news
Lokomotiv Moscow
🎙 Mikhail Galaktionov spoke about the psychological importance of the victory over Rubin: "We lacked sharpness up front. We needed to bombard the opponent with more shots, more crosses. That was missing today... It was crucial to break the draw streak. The guys are very pleased now. Although there was a period where we sat back too much. We pushed ourselves to apply pressure and press, to avoid being pinned back."
❌ Sergey Pinyayev will not feature in the upcoming match as he continues to struggle with a muscle injury.
CSKA Moscow
🎙 Fabio Celestini believes CSKA earned their victory over Baltika: "We took 20 shots on goal. When the opposition plays a 5-4-1 formation, organized and disciplined, creating 15 scoring chances against them is impossible. We had our chances, but our finishing let us down a bit. We had 5-6 clear-cut opportunities. If there was a team that deserved to win, it was us."
❌ In the upcoming match, Ramiro Di Luciano will be sidelined due to injury. However, the 21-year-old Argentine, who joined the team mid-season, is unlikely to be considered a regular starter. Yet, he would have had more chances to feature in the Russian Cup.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match will be Ivan Abrosimov, officiating in the Russian Cup for the first time. He has previously overseen five matches in the current RPL season, averaging 5.2 yellow cards per game, a notable increase from last season's 3.82.
In the Russian Cup, Lokomotiv tend to receive more yellow cards (2 compared to 0.8). Matches involving them average 4.3 cautions, while CSKA's games see an average of 3.8. Derby matches typically aren't overly aggressive; in 4 of the last 5 encounters, there were no more than three yellow cards. Thus, a bet on total yellow cards under 4.5 seems reasonable.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
CSKA's matches in the Russian Cup rarely feature high scores. This season, all their games have seen 2-3 goals. Extending this to the previous tournament shows that in 14 consecutive matches, no more than three goals were scored. Therefore, a bet on total goals under 3.5 appears well-founded.
🚩 Corner Prediction
CSKA usually wins more corners in the Russian Cup (6.8 compared to 4.3). In every match of the current tournament, they have won at least five corners, which also holds true for their last four head-to-head meetings. Therefore, opting for total corners for the visitors over 4.5 is a solid choice.
Editor's Prediction
CSKA have a derby against Spartak coming up in the league, which holds significant meaning for the fans. Meanwhile, Lokomotiv face another Moscow side, Dynamo, in a match crucial for the top spot contention. Therefore, the Russian Cup game seems less important, especially since it lacks substantial tournament implications. Both coaches are likely to rest their key players, which could lead to a draw in regular time, and CSKA might benefit from another penalty shootout practice after two recent failures. Given this context, we suggest a potential scoreline of 1-1.
Lack of motivation, fatigue from tough league matches, and squad rotation are unlikely to boost scoring in the upcoming clash. Moreover, in CSKA's last 14 Russian Cup games, there have been no more than three goals scored, and in seven away fixtures during this period, they've seen a maximum of two goals scored. Therefore, our key bet is on total goals under 3.
Betting Tips: Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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