Freiburg vs Mainz Prediction 30 November 2025
🔊 The final match of the 12th round will take place on Sunday evening at the Europa-Park Stadion, where Freiburg host Mainz. The home side are unbeaten in their last six home games, although they suffered a heavy defeat in Munich in the previous round. The visitors, on the other hand, have not won in their last seven outings and have only one victory to their name, which, interestingly, came away from home. However, the "Brazilians of Breisgau" remain unbeaten in their last eight encounters against Mainz (two wins and six draws). The "Nullfünfer" have not managed a victory at the Europa-Park in their last four visits (three draws and one loss). What is the most reasonable prediction in our view?
Head-to-Head
📊 Last season, the clubs shared points twice: the first-leg match in Freiburg ended 0-0, while the return fixture in Mainz finished 2-2.
Head-to-head statistics Freiburg - Mainz
Freiburg Team Overview
⚪ In the 11th round, Freiburg suffered a crushing defeat against Munich's Bayern at the Allianz Arena after Yuito Suzuki and Johan Manzambi put the home side ahead by the 20th minute (2-6). The "Brazilians of Breisgau" are currently in 12th place, having won only one of their last seven league matches. A victory on Sunday could see Freiburg close in on eighth-placed Werder Bremen.
🏆 Despite the defeat in Munich, Julian Schuster's side maintained their unbeaten run in the Europa League, drawing with Czech club Viktoria Plzeň in the fifth round (0-0). This draw dropped them to fourth place in the table, but they are just one point behind the top spot.
Match Results: Freiburg
Mainz Team Overview
🔴 Bo Henriksen's squad faced Hoffenheim at the MEWA Arena last weekend, where they once again failed to secure a victory (1-1). After an own goal by Andreas Hanche-Olsen, substitute Danny da Costa leveled the score in the 76th minute, earning his team a point. Mainz have now gone 11 Bundesliga home matches without a win, dating back to February, marking a club record for futility. The "05ers" sit at the bottom of the table with just one win all season, but a victory could see them climb to 15th place.
🏆 After winning their first three matches in the Conference League, Henriksen's team dropped points in the fourth round, losing away to Universitatea Craiova in Romania, conceding a penalty in the second half (0-1). This defeat pushed the club down to fifth place in the tournament.
Match Results: Mainz
Latest news
Freiburg
🎙 Julian Schuster on the match in the Czech Republic and the upcoming Bundesliga game: "I think we started the game well. We controlled the match. Up until the 30th minute, everything was very organized. Then we had two or three moments where we didn't play cleanly enough. We allowed the hosts to get into the game a bit. In the second half, we regained control of the ball. We just lacked a bit of game awareness after that. Ultimately, if you don't create chances, it's good at least not to concede a goal. For Sunday's game, there will be a couple of changes in the starting lineup. We'll also monitor the condition of the injured players, but it's unlikely any of them will start."
❌ Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and Cyriaque Irie remain unavailable. Eren Dinkci, Jordi Makengo, and Max Rosenfelder are doubtful.
Mainz
🎙 Bo Henriksen on the match against Freiburg: "Freiburg are composed. They play the same way as always. They capitalize on their chances and play smart. They're good both with and without the ball. Their counter-pressing is exceptionally strong - they're a really good team with a solid plan and an excellent coach."
❌ Nadiem Amiri will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards, while Dominik Kohr is suspended following a red card in the last round against Hoffenheim. Anthony Caci and Maxim Dal are still recovering. Robin Zentner and Philipp Mwene remain doubtful.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
Daniel Schlager is set to officiate the final match of the 12th round. The home team averages just 1.4 bookings per game, making them the most disciplined side over the first 11 rounds. Meanwhile, the visiting players rank among the leaders in yellow cards, averaging 2.5 per match. We suggest betting on over 3.5 total bookings, a bet that has come through in 10 consecutive "zero-fifths" matches.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Historically, matches between these two sides average 2.5 goals. For this encounter, we recommend betting on under 3 total goals, which has been successful in eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings. Considering Freiburg's average goals per game in this Bundesliga season stands at 1.3, and Mainz's at 1, this seems like a reasonable choice.
🚩 Corner Prediction
The "Brazilians of Breisgau" have an average corners count of 4.5, falling short of the "zero-fifths" figure of 5.2. Therefore, we suggest betting on Freiburg's individual total under 5.5 corners, a bet that has been successful in nine of Julian Schuster's last ten matches.
Editor's Prediction
Both teams enter this match not in peak physical condition, having competed in European tournaments on Thursday. Freiburg might have the edge, playing at home, and overall, the "Brazilians of Breisgau" appear more favorable after a third of the season has passed. Mainz, unexpectedly for many, have been in crisis since the start of the championship, securing just one win so far. We predict a victory for Freiburg, considering Mainz have lost their last four away games in a row and failed to score in three of them. Expected scoreline: 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Freiburg - Mainz
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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