RW Essen vs Leipzig Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 27 October 2026
🔊 Leipzig are returning to the Hafenstraße for the first time in two years, where one of the Third Liga's leading sides awaits them. Rot-Weiss are pushing for promotion and also have their sights set on a place in the Round of 16 of the DFB-Pokal. For the visitors, this will be their third match in seven days, and balancing the Bundesliga with the Champions League is becoming increasingly difficult. Add to that Essen's impressive home form and the favourites' problems on the road, and the hosts have every reason to fancy an upset.
A rematch after two years
📊 These two clubs have already met in the DFB-Pokal. In August 2024, Rot-Weiss Essen hosted Leipzig at home, with the visitors winning 4-1.
Head-to-head statistics RW Essen - Leipzig
Rot-Weiss are nearly flawless at home
After 11 rounds, Rot-Weiss sit third in the Third Liga with 21 points. They have won six, drawn three and lost just two. At home, Essen have been solid - five wins and a draw, with a goal difference of 12-3. In their most recent home match they beat Jahn Regensburg 1-0, extending their unbeaten home run.
In the DFB-Pokal, the club have already knocked out one higher-division side - St. Pauli, 2-0. However, ahead of the match against Leipzig, the coaching staff have seen their attacking options significantly reduced. Several forwards are out through injury, including the club's top scorer. Rot-Weiss will have to cover for those absences with whoever remains available, and against a Bundesliga side that task becomes particularly difficult.
Match Results: RW Essen
Leipzig: dominant at home, vulnerable on the road
Leipzig sit fifth in the Bundesliga with 12 points from seven matches. Martín Demichelis's side have won four times, scored 20 goals and are among the most prolific teams in the division. However, all of their success has come at home. Away from home, the Saxons have lost all three matches, including a 1-6 thrashing by Bayern.
The last league round was far more pleasant - Leipzig beat Elversberg 4-0, with the coaching staff making eight changes to the starting XI following the Champions League match against Real Madrid. Rotation in the cup is also quite likely. The squad depth allows Demichelis to manage the workload, but their away inconsistency remains a problem. Even against a third-division opponent, the visitors need to show greater reliability.
Match Results: Leipzig
Latest news
RW Essen
❌ Semir Telalović, Marvin Obuz, Aiman Dardari, Max Geschwill and Jaka Cuber Potočnik are injured.
Leipzig
🚑 Assan Ouédraogo continues to recover from shoulder surgery, while Marc Guiu is recovering from a muscle injury. Christopher Nkunku is unlikely to feature. Castello Lukeba and Tidiam Gomis are also doubts.
Total Goals Prediction
Leipzig's away scoring record contrasts sharply with their home form. In their last five away matches, they have scored just 4 goals, never finding the net more than once in any of them. The opposition was not easy, either - Bayern, Bayer and Real Madrid were among those sides. A match against a third-division club looks considerably more straightforward, but Rot-Weiss defend solidly at home, having conceded just 3 goals in six league rounds. The pick: Leipzig Team Total - Under 2.5 Goals at 2.12*.
Corners Prediction
Leipzig rarely earn many corners away from home: they had fewer than eight in 10 of their last 11 away matches. Even against stronger opponents, where they have to cede the initiative, the Saxons don't always compensate for a lack of chances with a high volume of set pieces. Rot-Weiss, backed by their home crowd, are also capable of sustaining prolonged spells of attack that stop the visitors from camped around their goal. Our pick: Leipzig Team Total Corners - Under 7.5 at 1.87*.
Safer Bet
Rot-Weiss have turned their home ground into a real fortress. They have gone unbeaten in 18 of their last 19 matches in Essen, and have not lost by two or more goals in 26 consecutive home games. This season they also remain unbeaten at home, including a cup match against St. Pauli. Leipzig are the stronger side on paper, but their away form gives reason to expect a decent fight from the hosts. We're backing Rot-Weiss Essen with a Handicap (+3) at 1.28*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely scorelines for this match are 1-2 (9.36%), 1-3 (7.08%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The 1-2 scoreline has the best chance, though the gap between the options is relatively small, which reflects the possibility of both teams being competitive in attack.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
Leipzig are clear favourites, but their confident home performances have so far failed to translate on the road. The Saxons have lost their last five away matches with an aggregate score of 4-19. The problems are not limited to defence - their attack has also noticeably lost its edge. Even with a significant advantage in quality, the visitors do not always convert possession into clear chances.
Rot-Weiss, on the other hand, are confident at home and have already knocked a second-division side out of the DFB-Pokal. Injury losses in attack could make it harder for the hosts to pull off another upset. Leipzig will most likely win, but a heavy victory seems unlikely. Predicted score: 1-2. Main bet: Leipzig Team Total - Under 2.5 goals.
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Betting Tips: RW Essen - Leipzig
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